Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update – 10-3-2022

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term Technical Analysis)

US100 Overview

 

BTC Overview

It was another strong week for the dollar, with prices generally trending lower against the U.S. dollar, and both the US 100 and US 30 and Gold were generally weak, as they both headed lower and made new lows.

 

However, the BTC price is still likely to rebound in the short term, so this week should be watched closely. As the month turns over, we would like to build positions based on the positive monthly trend.

 

BTC also showed a decline this week, in tandem with the decline in the US100, and continues to have a heavy upside. However, as we mentioned last week, we have the strong impression BTC has been able to withstand the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without being too closely correlated to the declines in other markets. This week, I feel the correlation between BTC and the US 100 has been even less. This is something to keep in mind. To put it more simply, we are noting BTC has not made new lows while the US100 and US30 have made new lows.

 

The difficulty in the current market is it is impossible to make a judgment based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

 

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar showing strength, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offense. (repost)

 

↓ Monthly candlestick chart of BTCUSD

This week we will start with the standard environmental recognition as we have a monthly update in between. Last month was a negative candle with small substance. The recent low was not broken and the market was range bound. The initial move this month is lower.

 

As I somewhat mentioned in my opening overview:

  1. BTCUSD appears to be holding its own against a decline in US equities (US100 or US30)
  2. The short term price correlation between the US100 and BTC is lessening
  3. BTC and Gold tend to rise toward the end of the year

 

From the three points above, I am going to try to take a long position against the recent low of $18,000 if I can this month. If the price breaks down a little, I will try to buy the dip once. If the price drops below $18,000, the low with a big drop thus I will stop trying to take a long position.

 

↓ Comparison of BTCUSD daily and horizontal axis

Next, let’s look at the daily chart. First, look at the horizontal axis (market cycle). As you can see in the chart above, it seems the price movement is about to show a direction in terms of the cycle. (This is an even more macro view than last week’s horizontal axis analysis.)

 

Combined with the monthly update and other factors, I also believe volatility is likely to expand somewhat from this simmering price action.

 

Combining these factors with the monthly analysis in the previous section, we think we will stand in a long position for the time being. From a macro perspective, the current price range is the high of 2017, and we can see once again this area is a place where the market can struggle, where selling and buying can compete with each other. This is a level where a rebound is possible.

 

Of course, the possibility of a break below is not zero, and in such case, I will stop chasing longs.

 

 

US100 Overview

 

↓ 3-day candlestick chart of US100

The US100 is falling again, as it did last week.

 

Last week I stated, “judging solely by the chart, I think it is likely to attack lower prices to the recent lows around $11,000-$11,500.” The price fell to approximately this area, and the candlestick closed.

 

 

There are several horizontal support boxes in that area, and furthermore, the weekly 200 MA is present, so a rebound is likely. Since the monthly update is also due this week, we will keep a close eye on this price area from next week to see if a short-term rebound and a positive turnaround on the monthly leg can be seen.

 

Of course, there is a possibility the price will continue to fall after the week, but there is a white support box (around $10,500) immediately below that will serve as a resistance zone, and we think the monthly price will eventually turn positive.

 

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch this as well. To reiterate, when taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of the index as well.

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update – 9-26-2022

Contents

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA)

Overview of the US100

 

 

BTC Overview

This week was a strong week for the dollar, with markets generally trending lower against the dollar, and both the US100 and US30 and Gold were looking to make new lows and recent lows. Next week will be one to watch, as the price has come down to a price range which is likely to show a short-term rebound.

 

BTC has been falling in tandem with the decline in the US 100 this week, and the market has continued to move lower and higher. Of course, in the big picture, the market is ranging.

 

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

 

Since monetary easing has come to an end, funds have been pulled out of the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no rush to build a long time horizon buying position. This is a phase to protect funds, not to be on the offense. (reiterated)

 

↓ Daily candlestick chart of BTCUSD

Continuing from last week, it is easy to see on a daily basis the market is in a range. Since the current price range is at the lower end of the range, it seems more promising to target long positions at such times as the weekly update, rather than taking short positions in an attempt to break through the lower end of the range.

 

↓ Daily candlestick chart of BTCUSD w/horizontal axis added

Also, although this is only a hypothetical double bottom at the bottom of these two points, I think it is running out unless the price shows signs of a reversal soon, even on the horizontal axis. In other words, if we fail to move up within the next week, the probability of a break below this low price area will increase. Next week will also be interspersed with monthly updates, so it may be worth looking at the possibility of an initial swing lower around that time, creating a lower wick, and then a positive turnaround.

 

Continuing from last week, again from a macro perspective, we can see the current price area is the high of 2017, and this area is once again a place where we can struggle, i.e., where selling and buying could be competing with each other.

 

Based on such at this point, it is important to assume the market is in a range. Specifically, buy at $18,000 and sell at or near $26,000.

 

In a ranging market, the basic rule is “buy low and sell above.” In this case, selling at $18,000 is not a good idea. Even if we break below this low in the future, it is necessary to create a horizontal axis in the form of a holding triangle. As I wrote above, I would like to keep the above policy for a while as long as the market does not break below this current range.

 

Overview of the US100

↓ Weekly candlestick chart of US100

The US100 fell again last week.

 

Last week I said, “judging by the chart alone, I think we are likely to attack lower prices to the recent lows around $11,000-$11,500.” The price fell to approximately this area and the candlestick closed.

 

The reason is that there are several horizontal boxes in that area and the 200MA is also present, so a rebound is highly likely. Therefore, we will be watching closely to see if a short-term rebound can be seen in this price area in the next week or so.

 

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch BTC as well. In other words, when taking a position in BTC, you need to take into account the movement of the index as well.

 

Categories
Overview

Weekly Crypto Markets – September 19, 2022

Contents

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA)
Overview of US100

 

BTC Overview

This week’s BTC is linked to the decline of the US100, showing a decline, and continuing to have a heavy topside. Of course, looking at the big picture, it is within the scope of the ranging market.

It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is BTC cannot be used solely to make any judgments. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.

Monetary easing has ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the US dollar is strong. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the attack. (repost)

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

Looking at the daily chart, it is easy to understand we are in a ranging market. Since the current price range is at the lower end, rather than holding a short position aiming to break through the lower end of the range, it seems the expected value is higher for aiming for a long position at the timing of weekly updates.

If you want to open a short position to break out of the lower end of the range, you can build your position against the recent high of $22,500. In that case, we assume a shape like a descending triangle.

Last week I mentioned, “looking at it again from a macro perspective, the current price range is the highest price in 2017, and you can see again this area is a place where selling and buying can be evenly matched.”

Therefore, at this point, it is important to assume the market is range bound. Specifically, the idea is to buy at around $18,000 and sell at around $26,000 or less.

The basics of a ranging market are “buy low, sell high”, and in this example, selling at $18,000 is not a good idea. If the price breaks below this low in the future, it will need to form a consolidating triangle-like shape to create a horizontal axis.” I would like to continue with the above policy for the time being unless the price falls below the current range.

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

Looking at the monthly chart again, we can see the current price range is the opening price of the monthly chart, which is the point of price competition.

 

In last week’s article I stated, “as a future policy for this month, we should take a position based on the assumption this month will be positive, with the monthly opening price of about $20,000 as support.” Next week, based on this assumption, we would like to build a position while keeping an eye on the movements of the US100.

 

Overview of the US100

 

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100 fell again last week. Judging only from the chart, we are thinking the price may push the price down to the recent lows of $11,000 to $11,500.

 

This is because there are multiple horizontal support areas and the presence of the 200MA, so it is likely the price will rebound. In any case, as long as the US100 does not rebound, BTC is unlikely to rebound, so as I always write, it is necessary to look at this as well. In other words, when taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of the index as well.

Categories
Overview

Weekly Crypto Market – 9/12/2022

Contents

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA)

Overview of the US100

 

 

BTC Overview

BTC showed a short-term gain this week, turning positive not only on the weekly candle but also for the monthly. I will describe the way of thinking about how to take a position in the future.

It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is that BTC cannot used solely to make any judgments. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.

Monetary easing is once over and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term buying position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the attack. (repost)

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

This week, the initial move turned positive, and the weekly chart is likely to settle on a positive line.

Looking at it again from a macro perspective, the current price range is the highest price in 2017, and you can see this area is a place where selling and buying can be evenly matched.

Therefore, at this point, it is important to assume the market is range bound. Specifically, the image is to buy at around $18,000 and sell at around $26,000 or less.

The basics of a ranging market are “buy low, sell high”, and in this example, selling at $18,000 is not a good idea. If this low is broken down in the future, it will need to form a consolidating triangle-like shape to create a horizontal axis.

In last week’s article I stated, “we believe if we take a long position after this month, we will be able to back the recent low of around $18,000.” At present, we want to take a long position at $18,000 as our backing because of the possibility of support there.

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

In addition, the monthly candle turned positive. Therefore, as a future policy for this month, it would be better to take a position with the opening price of the monthly candlestick at around $20,000 under the assumption this month will be positive.

 

Overview of the US100

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100’s decline temporarily stopped, showing a short-term rebound. Judging only from the chart, it seems there will be a struggle in this price range.

 

It has recently seen a short-term rally at the white support box around $12,300, but if it continues to fall, I think we can be prepared for another drop to around $11,000. This is because there are multiple horizontal support boxes and the presence of the 200MA, so it is likely the price will bounce back. In any case, as I always mention, it is difficult for BTC to rebound unless the US100 rebounds, so we need to look at this as well. When taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of this index as well.

 

Categories
Overview

Weekly Crypto Market – September 5, 2022

Contents

BTC Overview (Long- and Short-Term TA)

Overview of US100

 

 

BTC Overview

This week’s article confirms the market environment and reviews August.

It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is BTC cannot be used solely to make any judgments. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.

Monetary easing is once over and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term buying position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the attack. (repost)

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

This week August ends and September begins, so I will start with the usual environmental awareness. The monthly candlestick of August became a negative line wrapped up by the positive line of the previous month, July, in the form of candlesticks. Once again, I realized the overall situation is a downward trend, and on a slightly shorter time axis, the market is in a range.

 

We believe if we take a long position after this month, we will be able to back the recent low near $18,000. If the price makes a new low, the next white support box near $14,000 will come into view.

 

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart

Let’s take a little look back. I tried to surround the August period of BTC’s lower candle 8-hour candle. There are two important points here.

 

The first is the short-term movement in August was a state of declining volatility, the so-called ‘summer market,’ which can be clearly seen in comparison with the period before that. That’s what it means. It will be clear even if you compare it with July to the left of it. What you have to be careful about in such a market environment is you should limit the places and times you touch and reduce the number of times you touch. This is because if volatility is reduced this much, it will be difficult to recover immediately if a loss is made. Limiting the place and time to touch specifically refers to trading only at the timing of weekly updates. I also went about my trading with such policy.

 

Second, don’t go against the upper leg. In other words, after the price of BTC falls below the monthly opening price of $23,307 and becomes a negative candle, the price range when taking a long position is quite small, coupled with the reduction in volatility, so you should refrain from taking a long position. I touched on this many times in the articles in August, but this time I would like you to verify it against the actual chart again. In this situation, except for short-term scalping, you should be able to see it is quite difficult to trade only with long positions.

 

Of course, it is now September, and looking at the weekly level, there is a possibility the price range is at the lower end of the range, so my current thinking is that I would like to take a long position around $18,000. The point at which the decline in the US100, which is described later, will be supported is also key.

 

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100 is in the middle of a decline as shown above. After seeing a short-term rally from the white support box around $12,300, I think we should be prepared for another drop down to around $11,000. This is because there are multiple horizontal support boxes and the presence of the 200MA, so it is likely the price will rebound. In any case, as long as the US100 does not rebound, BTC is unlikely to rebound, so as I always write, it is necessary to look at this as well.

 

Categories
Overview

Weekly Crypto Market – August 29, 2022

Table of Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term Technical Analysis)
US100 Overview

 

BTC Overview

For some time now, I have been writing, “Again, I believe that we are still in a range, rather than a reversal of a longer time horizon trend.” This week was a week in which we were reminded of this. It is important to keep this awareness in mind and to make humble profit-taking decisions frequently.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has come to an end and funds are being withdrawn from the market, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to go on the offensive. (Reiterated)

 

↓BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, I write repeatedly every week, “Again, if we consider a longer time horizon, whether it reverses or continues to fall, some horizontal axis adjustment is necessary, and the market should remain range-bound until then. Therefore, I do not consider the short-term range break to be a trend reversal, but rather a possible range expansion or reversion. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to turn. We believe we are still in the process of building a horizontal axis.” This is what I felt this week as well as last week.

This is partly a reiteration, but I plan to stand by this policy for the next month and beyond.

Last week, I said, “Since the monthly chart also turned negative, I don’t want to take too many long positions for this month on a monthly level.” I was actually right this week in taking such a stand. This is a concept that I would like to keep in mind as I will be able to apply it in the future. The idea is to not go against the upper leg.

The decline has stopped at the $20,000 area, which is a strong resistance box for now. What happens next remains to be seen, but the possible future positive scenarios and points now are “a move in the $20,000-$26,000 or $18,000-$26,000 range, with a range-breaking move, i.e., a triangle or a rounding up.” In the This is a scenario in which the recent lows are not broken, so if the lows are broken, do not take a long position by force, but rather aim for a second bottom. Incidentally, since I do not think the recent low will be broken this time, I will continue to target long positions for a short-term rebound over the next month or so.

 

↓US100 weekly candlestick chart

The US100 is in the process of falling as shown in the chart above. There is a white box just below at around $12,300 that is likely to rebound at one point, but we believe that we should be prepared for a decline to around $11,000, another level below that. This is because there are several horizontal boxes in that area, and the 200MA is also present, so a rebound is highly likely. In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is also unlikely to rebound, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch this as well.

Categories
Overview

Weekly Crypto Market – August 22, 2022

Table of Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term Technical Analysis)

 

BTC Overview

For some time now, I have been writing, “Again, I believe that we are still in a range, rather than a reversal of a longer time horizon trend.” This week was a week in which we were reminded of this. It is important to keep this awareness in mind and to make humble profit-taking decisions frequently.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has come to an end and funds are being withdrawn from the market, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to go on the offensive. (Reiterated)

 

↓BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

As I stated at the beginning of this article, I write repeatedly every week.

As I repeat, “Again, if we consider a longer time horizon, whether a reversal or a continued decline occurs, some degree of horizontal axis adjustment is necessary, and until then, the market should remain range-bound. Therefore, I do not consider the short-term range break to be a trend reversal, but rather a possible range expansion or reversion. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to turn. We believe we are still in the process of building a horizontal axis.” This was a remarkable week for us.

Specifically, it failed to cross the $26,000 resistance box and turned around and fell. As long as the price remains in a transitory rise, it is only a range market. Be aware that the human brain tends to have a convenient bias that when prices go up, they will continue to go up.

Since the monthly chart has also turned negative, on a monthly level, we do not want to take too many long positions with respect to this month. The decline stopped just before $20,000, which is a strong resistance box for once. We do not know what will happen next, but the following two possible future scenarios and points are currently possible.

  1. A move in the $20,000-$26,000 or $18,000-$26,000 range, which would create a narrowing of the range, i.e., a triangle or a rounding up of the range.
  2. The opening price of $23,300 of the February session will probably be positive or negative, and the price movement in that price range should be watched carefully.

↓ Four-hour candlestick chart of BTCUSD

Let’s observe a little lower time frame. Then we can see parallel channels and trend lines as shown in the chart above. Although the horizontal boxes are the main feature, these are also good points to be aware of when looking at the chart.

Categories
Overview

Weekly Crypto Market – August 15, 2022

Contents

Overview of BTC (long-term and short-term TA)

 

Overview of BTC

BTC has been in an even tighter range this week than last. Volatility is dwindling and so is the so-called “summer market”, so I don’t think it’s necessary to force a position construction. The contents are focused on reviewing last week and this week.

 

Due to the recent upgrade of Ethereum, spot demand for ETH has increased, so be careful not to take an easy contrarian short position. This is because there are many things that must not go against the market, which is driven by actual products. This can be said for both BTC and ETH, so it’s good to remember. In a little more detail, there is an increase in position making, such as ETH spot buying positions and ETH time-limited futures selling positions (positions aimed at acquiring ETHPoW, please check the details on your own.) may also be a factor. When ETH is strong, BTC is often correlated and strong.

In addition, to reiterate, rather than a reversal of the long-term trend, we believe the market is still in a range a widened range.

It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is that BTC cannot be used solely to make any judgement alone. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.

Monetary easing has ended and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term buying position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to attack. (repost of last week)

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

This week, it showed movement as predicted in last week’s article, and the monthly chart turned positive.

 

Last week I stated,

“The month has changed and it’s August, so I’ll start recognizing the environment from the usual monthly chart. Last month (July) was confirmed as a positive line, and this month it’s temporarily a negative line. If there is a positive change after this, we can expect the price to rise to the upper white resistance box of $26,000. If we are aiming for a positive turnaround scenario, we should go long on the back of the white support box of $22,500, which has recently shown a rebound. The daily level is described below. It doesn’t look bad to go long with that as a backing.” A long position around $22,500 is pretty easy to get here, and it’s the only place I’ve taken a position this week. Specifically, it is easy to understand if you verify the upper and lower candles in combination with the indicated part of the daily chart below.

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

Even at the weekly level, the movement was roughly in line with last week’s forecast.

 

In last week’s article I stated,

“As usual, the weekly chart around the 200MA is still a battlefield, and if this week’s chart is confirmed at the 200MA or higher, I think we will be able to build a long position next week as well.”

Also, “On July 31st, as I’m writing this article, the monthly chart for this month will close. If this week’s candlestick closes above the weekly 200MA, we can build long positions against it from next week onwards. Also, when looking at the monthly level, if it moves to test the weekly 200MA, it can become a lower shadow of the monthly candle, so I would like to aim to build a long position next month,” but we plan to continue with this policy.

It basically played out as so. It took six weekly bars, but once the price rises above the weekly 200MA, the weekly positive line is likely to confirm a candlestick. In other words, this weekly 200MA is likely to continue functioning as one of the tally indicators when constructing positions. I said it would take time, but that includes the impression the horizontal axis at the weekly level is reliable to some extent.

 

On the other hand, once again, if we consider a slightly longer time axis, we will need to adjust the horizontal axis to some extent, whether it reverses or continues to fall, and until then the market should continue in a range. Therefore, I do not think that this short-term range break has turned the trend, and that the range width may expand or recur. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to reverse. I think we are still in the process of making the horizontal axis.

Categories
Overview

Weekly Crypto Market – August 8, 2022

Contents

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA)
Trading USDJPY (Actual Trade)

*This article concludes with an actual USD/JPY trade the author made last week. Feel free to review it as an example of a typical trading practice.

BTC Overview

BTC has been in a narrow range this week. Also, since the monthly chart has been updated, I will also explain the situation on that.

Even now, rather than a reversal of the long-term trend, I still believe the range width has expanded and the market is still in a range.

It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is BTC alone cannot be used to make any judgment. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.

Monetary easing is over for now, and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term long position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on attack.

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

Now that the month has changed and it’s August, I’ll start recognizing the environment from the usual monthly chart. Last month (July) it was confirmed as a positive candle, and this month it is temporarily a negative candle. If the price turns positive after this, we can expect a rally to the next upper white resistance box near $26,000. If you are aiming for a positive turnaround scenario, it would be a good idea to go long on the back of the white support box near $22,500, which has seen a recent rally. It looks like it’s not bad to go long on the back even on the daily level, which will be described later. Let’s take a look at the lower interval level.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

This week was in a narrow range. Therefore, we didn’t do much to build new BTC positions.

 

Specifically, the lower bound is the white support box at $22,500 and the upper bound is around $23,500 where the recent high cannot be broken. As always, the weekly 200MA is still a battlefield, and if the weekly chart settles above the 200MA this week, I think we can build a long position next week as well.

 

In last week’s article, I stated “as of July 31, when I am writing this article, this month’s monthly candle will close. If this week’s candle closes above the weekly 200MA, it will be possible to build a long position from next week onwards. Also, when looking at the monthly level, if there is a move to test the weekly 200MA, it could become a lower shadow of the monthly candle, so I would like to aim to build a long position next month.” I will continue to follow this policy.

 

On the other hand, once again, if we consider a slightly longer time axis, whether it reverses or continues to fall, a certain amount of horizontal axis adjustment is necessary, and until then the market should continue in a range. Therefore, I do not believe that this short-term range break has become a trend reversal, and the range width may expand or recur. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to reverse.

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

Looking at the daily chart, we can see the price has once tried the white box upper limit of $22,500 and is showing a short-term rally. I’m a little skeptical about whether it will continue to turn around, and rather, I think there is a great possibility that it will try the white box lower limit of $22,000 with a wick. I think it would be nice if such a movement reversed and the monthly chart turned positive. If the price deviates from this forecast, it will continue to return to the original range, so there is no need to force oneself into a long position.

 

 

USD/JPY Actual Trade

I made a USD/JPY trade this week and think it’s a pretty good sample, so I would like to introduce it.

First, look at the chart just before taking a position. As for how I looked at this chart beforehand, I saw a white support box similar to the one in the following figure.

In other words, I was aiming to go long around this white box.

After that, the price actually dropped close to the target white support box, so I started building long positions. At this time, the movement of the lower leg is important, so let’s take a look.

If you look at the lower leg, you can see it has formed a double bottom. The important thing is to hit this double bottom and start building positions at the place where the double bottom is likely to form (around 14:35 where the cursor is on the chart). From here, a stop loss can be set to the latest low price (first bottom), so even if a stop loss occurs, the loss will be small and you can trade with a good risk reward.

After that, USD/JPY reversed as shown above and I was able to make a profit.

 

Categories
Overview

Weekly Crypto Market – August 1, 2022

Contents

Overview of BTC (Long and Short Term TA)

Overview of ETH

 

 

Overview of BTC

The price has broken out firmly above the recent range of $18,000 to $22,500 this week, and has shown a potential move towards the next resistance area of $26,000. Since I was able to take a long position with this move, I will review the actual position building practically. It will be August from next week, and since it is a monthly update, I will also keep that in mind.

 

Rather than a change in the long-term trend, I believe the range width has expanded and the market is still in a range.

 

It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is BTC cannot be solely used to make any judgment. It’s also important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.

Monetary easing is once over and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term buying position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on attack.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

The price has broken out firmly above the recent range of $18,000 to $22,500 this week.

 

The week before last, I stated, “if you want to aim for the top in the short term, you must first break through the weekly 200 MA (red line in the above chart), which has been holding the head down for a long time.” In addition, I also mentioned, “I would like to see how this battle will go next week and build an appropriate position.”

 

In other words, after finalizing the candlestick around 200MA weekly, this week, after making a lower wick like a resistance support conversion (see the description of the lower bar below) around $20,700 in the white box, it turned positive and broke through the 200 MA weekly bar.

 

This kind of movement has legs (this time around $28,000 in the white support box and conversion to resistance support on lower candlesticks), so it is easy to build a long position, so I think the expected value is high if you take a position aggressively. Since ETH has shown such price movements in advance, it would be better suited to expand the image in the ETH section below.

 

Today, July 31st, as I am writing this article, the monthly chart for this month will close. If this week’s candlestick closes above the weekly 200MA, we can build long positions against it from next week onwards. Also, when looking at the monthly level, if it moves to test the weekly 200MA, it can become a lower shadow of the monthly stick, so I would like to aim to build a long position next month.

 

On the other hand, once again, if we consider a slightly longer time axis, whether it reverses or continues to fall, a certain amount of horizontal axis adjustment is necessary, and until then the market should continue in a range. Therefore, I do not believe that this short-term range break has become a trend reversal, and the range width may expand or recur. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to reverse.

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

Looking at the daily chart, the conversion of the $20,700 resistance support is even clearer. The $20,700 to $22,000 range is likely to be a good option if you plan to build a long position next month. If you go back to the weekly description and verify, you will find the price around that area is also the weekly 200MA. This kind of composite observation of each timeframe is the basis of the idea of ​​candlesticks.

 

Last week, I said, “if you can handle the conversion of the resistance support, you can aim for a rise to the white resistance box of $25,000 next.”

 

 

Overview of ETH

↓ ETHUSD Weekly Candlestick Chart

Last week I predicted, “if ETH shows a fairly strong rise, leading BTC to break out of the recent range and continues to rise, the next resistance is likely to be around $1,750. If it moves like this, the key will be whether it can rebound around $1,300 to $1,400 in the event of a short-term decline in the future.” As you can see from the left side, this is a resistance box that seems to be quite difficult to break through in one shot, and even if it breaks through, it will be after next month.

 

I added the next resistance box around $2,200. Similar to BTC, the 200MA weekly chart is likely to be visited next week and after August. Specifically, we would like to build a long position on the assumption the price will push down to around $1,300.