Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update – 11-28-2022

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
Short-term BTC Practical Example Trade for this Week (11/21~11/27)
US100 Overview

 

BTC Overview

Until the FTX situation calms down to some extent, one should refrain from taking aggressive positions. I closed the week with almost no positions. However, I did take a position in one spot where I saw a typical chart pattern, which I will show you as a practical example.

Chart-wise, volatility is decreasing and we are at the halfway point in the price range, so I am not in a rush right now and think it is best to trade when the chart is in a better shape.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to be in a hurry to build buying positions over a long-time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

 

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart

The recent FTX bankruptcy and credit concerns caused $BTC to break below its daily range, and although it returned to the lower end of the range at $18,000, it was sold back and folded. Since then, it has fallen back to higher highs and volatility has been shrinking.

As stated last week, a “do nothing (no position)” approach was correct as we are at the halfway point in this current state. I think it is better to wait until it looks like it is about to form a clear range or make a double bottom.

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

The November monthly leg is about to close with a negative candle.

 

In my last article, I wrote: “if you want to target long positions, it’s not too late to do so after this month’s monthly candle is finalized and you have support. If we test the white support box just below ($13,000-$14,000) within this month or over the next month, that’s where I’d like to target it a bit.” As I said, this is the basic policy I would like to follow, and it would not be a bad idea to take a short-term long position at or just below the monthly lows in November.

Short-term BTC Practical Example Trade for this Week (11/21~11/27)

As mentioned at the beginning of this report, the only long position I took this week, saying that I should refrain from taking a position because the current position is halfway up, is the circled wick on November 22, as shown above. Interpretation of this wick is important as it is a pattern that appears frequently in trading, so please take this opportunity to examine it carefully. Since this chart is a 15-minute chart, let’s look at the candlesticks a little higher up.

Then, we can see that the wicks of the long point circled by zeros in the previous section are “a slight break below the recent lows.

 

In many cases, this “slight break below the recent lows” will result in a reversal. This is because,

(1) A break below the low will bring in a new long-shot short position.

(2) A break below the low will cause long positions that had placed stop-losses at the recent low to cut their losses.

The reason for this is because,

(1) This is similar to the reason I have said many times before, “in a range market, you should never take a long-shot short at the lower end of the range.” This is the reason why it usually doesn’t work.

(2) The other way to put it is if “the enemy of a long position is a long position.” When a price move reverses from a decline to a short rally, the reversal occurs after the long position losses are cut, and vice versa. This is what I mean.

This is how I interpreted the wicks in this case. This time it was the short-term leg, but this can be applied to other time frames as well, so please keep this in mind.

 

Back to the short-term candles again.

The interpretation of the wicks is the same as above, and although I took a short-term long position at the wicks, in fact, I could have taken a position at the double bottom on the right side of the wicks (yellow oval) instead. In other words, in this case, it would be better to assume a short-term double bottom and place a stop loss at the tip of the wicks on the left side.

 

As always, it is important to interpret the candlesticks of each time period in a comprehensive manner.

 

US100 Overview 

↓ US100 monthly candlestick chart

The US 100 has been in a range-bound market this week. Setups will continue as they are and remain to be seen. The range market is likely to continue in this price area for a while. The image of the so-called “attack and defense against the monthly 200 MA” is unfolding.

 

This has little to do with the movement of BTC this week, but in any case, if the US100 does not rebound, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch BTC as well. Another way of putting it is when taking a position in BTC, you also need to consider the movement of this index.

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update – 11-21-2022

Table of Contents
BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term Technical Analysis)
US100 Overview

 

BTC Overview

The turmoil from last week’s FTX collapse still hasn’t subsided this week, the fallout continues, and the market continues to be in a cautionary mood. I closed the week with no positions.

Chart-wise, volatility is shrinking and we are at the halfway point in the price range, so I am not in a rush right now and think it is best to trade when the charts are in shape.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a composite manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (Reiterated)

↓8-hour candlestick chart of BTCUSD

Last week’s FTX bankruptcy and credit concerns caused $BTC to fall below its daily range, and it has been sold back to the lower end of the range at $18,000, but has been sold back and folded.

As in the past week, “do nothing (no position)” is correct as we are at the halfway point at this point in the current position. It would be better to wait until it looks like it is about to form a range or make a double bottom. If a new low is confirmed by a large negative line, I would not force a long position.” This is the case in the current situation.

If you want to take a long position, I think it is not too late to do so after this month’s monthly leg is confirmed and your back is made. If we were to test the white box directly below ($13,000-$14,000) within this month or over the next month, that is where I would want to target a bit.

The longer time frame chart setup is as I put it on last week, so you may want to check last week’s article.

US100 at a glance

↓Daily candlestick chart of US100

The US 100 has been a range-bound market this week. Setups will continue as they are and remain to be seen. It looks like it will remain range-bound in this price area for a while.

This has little to do with BTC’s movement this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, we need to watch this one as well. Another way of putting it is that when taking a position in BTC, you also need to take into account the movement of the index.

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update – 11-14-2022

Content

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
US100 Overview

BTC Overview

This week was a tumultuous week for crypto assets. Leading crypto asset exchange FTX (the second largest exchange in the world at the time) went bankrupt. We will not go into details, but it was discovered FTX had been privately speculating on funds entrusted to it by its customers and incurring huge losses, and customers were unable to withdraw their crypto assets from their own investment funds. This was a huge shock to the industry, as the exchange was world-renowned and quite trusted.

↑ $FTT daily candlestick chart

FTX exchange token $FTT sold off sharply, falling more than 90% in a matter of days, and $SOL, which had close ties to FTX, also fell sharply. Following their lead, other crypto assets sold off, and BTC was no exception. As we will see below, we need to change our minds a bit from the past week.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible make any judgments using BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long-term horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, $BTC has fallen below its daily range due to the FTX bankruptcy and credit concerns. The strategy up to last week’s article was to assume within the range, so we need to switch our mindset. In this case, the next price area that could pick up would be the price range with a white support box around $13,000-$14,000 directly below.

Currently we are at the halfway point, so taking a “do nothing (no position)” is our stance. “It would be better to wait until the price is about to form a range or make a double bottom. If a new low is confirmed by a large negative candle, I would not force a long position.” This is the case with the current situation.

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

Previously I stated, “the current price range is halfway there, but it will be clearer if you check with the higher leg, the monthly leg. In other words, since we are in a ‘no-backing’ (no support) situation, we ‘cannot set a stop-loss’ and therefore ‘cannot take a position.’”

Wait and see with this market. No need to rush.

 

US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US 100 has been a range-bound market this week. The setup will continue as is and we will continue to watch.

This has little to do with the movement of BTC this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, we need to watch this one as well. When taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of this index.

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update – 11-7-2022

Contents
BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA, Altcoin Standing Tips)
US100 Overview

 

BTC Overview

The recent trend of the market’s movement continues to give the strong impression it has been enduring the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without much correlation, while there are a few signs of a stand-alone upturn. The market continues to be range-bound with limited upside potential.

The “altcoin market” has recently seen strong price action following the strong price action in BTC. In this week’s article, I will provide a few tips on how to navigate such a market.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long-time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

This week was the week between monthly updates, so we do our customary environmental awareness check.

Last month, after testing the recent low of $18,000, we turned positive and were able to confirm the monthly leg with a positive candle. This month, too, the current situation is positive. If the price continues to rise, the monthly price should reach $26,000, where the resistance area is located.

Also, thanks to this positive monthly confirmation, many altcoins are strong and showing a rise. It is the so-called “BTC rises, then altcoins lag behind,” which is the usual rule. One of the characteristics of such a market is “each individual altcoin rises in turn with a time lag.” In other words, it is called the altcoin “cycle.” Recently, for example, after $CHZ rose, other $CHZ-related fun tokens rose after a short time lag. Such “cycles” are often seen between altcoins of similar nature. This means if you observe a rise in one altcoin, you should pay attention to its related altcoins. It is like an “association game.”

As for our future policy, from a macro perspective as stated previously, our only basic policy is as we continued to do last month,

“BTC,

  1. US stocks (US100 or US30) appear to be resisting the decline
  2. The short-term price movement correlation between US100 and BTC is lessening
  3. BTC and Gold tend to rise towards the end of the year

based on the three points, if the price drops, I will try to take a long position against the recent low of $18,000. If the price breaks down a little, I will try to buy the price dip. If the price drops to a lower low with a jiggle down plus a big drop, I will stop trying to take a long position.”

This is the policy I plan to stand on.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

Since our general policy was confirmed in the monthly section, we will also check the lower weekly section. Then, if the price continues to rise, we should pay attention to the $22,400 area where the white resistance box just above exists and the $24,000 area of the weekly 200MA as candidates for the price range where the price is likely to stop increasing (guideline for profit-taking).

Two important points remain:

(1) stand on the assumption of a ranging market (perhaps a market with a shrinking range),

(2) take profits frequently.

US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100 has shown a range-bound move this week, without making a new low, but the weak price action is likely to test the lows again.

If it continues to fall, the next white support box will be around the $10,000 level, which is a good distance from the current price range, so it is likely to be a reasonably large decline. In that case, BTC is likely to show an accompanying decline, so we should stay alert and keep this in mind.

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is also unlikely to rebound, so as I always state, it is necessary to watch BTC as well. When taking a position in BTC, be sure to consider the movement of the index.

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update – 10-31-2022

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)

US100 Overview

 

BTC Overview

The recent trend of the market’s movement continues to give the strong impression the market has been enduring the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without much correlation, while there are few signs of a stand-alone upturn. The market continues to be range-bound with limited upside potential.

This week, the market has broken out of the short-term range and the monthly leg has turned positive, but it remains in a ranged market category as to whether a trend is emerging or not. The basis of a range market is to buy at the lower end and sell at the upper end of the range. In other words, from last week to this week, do not force yourself to take short positions in order to break below the range. A horizontal time adjustment is needed to break out of the range.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has come to an end, funds have been pulled out of the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no rush to build a long-term buying position. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

BTC will show an uptick this week and the weekly leg is likely to be confirmed with a positive line. The monthly leg is also likely to be positive.

The current price range is at the upper end of the white box, which is the upper end of the range, so it looks like it will be a bit heavy and is a short-term profit taking point. The monthly leg for this month will close this week, but as mentioned below, I think it is a good policy to pick up the price when it falls again next month.

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart

In last week’s article, I wrote, “since the downside price appears to be solid, the key for next week and beyond will be whether or not the price can cross the $19,427 horizontal light blue line in the chart above. Whether or not the price crosses the $19,427 mark will determine whether this month will be a positive or negative one. This is exactly the point to watch this week. The above chart shows that the price has been rising vigorously after firmly crossing the $19,427 level. This is a noticeably clear case of “the opening price of the upper time frame, such as the monthly time frame, is well aware of itself,” so it is good to keep this in mind.

This week, I built a long altcoin position at the time this $19,427 was firmly exceeded in substance. (I was not only judging BTC on its own, but also watching the movement of the US100.)

This is a slightly more applied technique, where when BTC is about to rise, and as in this case, the support is somewhat far away and it is difficult to take a position in BTC on its own, you take a position in an altcoin that moves after BTC. This is another highly reproducible technique to keep in mind as it can be applied in the future.

From a macro perspective, we continue to believe, over the next month or so, the only basic policy will be, as we wrote before,

“BTC

  1. Appears to be resisting the decline from US stocks (US100 or US30)
  2. Is showing a lessor correlation in the short-term price with the US100
  3. Tends to rise towards the end of the year, similar to gold

Based on these three points, we are thinking of taking a long position against the recent low of $18,000 in the event of a decline. If the price breaks down a little, I will try to buy the dip once. If the price drops below $18,000, I will stop trying to take a long position.

I would like to stand around with this policy.

 

US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100 showed a range-bound move this week without making a new low.

This year, I believe it will not break new lows and will continue to move around this price range ($10,400-$12,400) for a time next week and beyond, as shown on the left side of the chart.

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always state, it is necessary to watch it as well. When taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of this index as well.

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update – 10-24-2022

Contents
BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
US100 Overview

BTC Overview

The recent trend of the market’s movements continues to give the strong impression its has been burdened by declines in other markets, such as the US100, without much correlation, while there are few signs of a stand-alone upturn. The market continues to be range-bound with limited upside potential.

This week, the US100 made a positive move, but BTC did not move much, so we did not take any new positions. Taking no positions is also a sound strategy. There is no need to force a trade.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make a decision with BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offensive. (repost)

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

As mentioned at the beginning of this report, volatility has been very low.

Since the downside price appears to be solid, the key to the next week and beyond will be whether the price can cross the $19,427 horizontal line in the light blue color in the above chart. Whether or not the price crosses the $19,427 level will determine whether this month will be a positive or negative one.

The reason why I did not take aggressive positions this week is because I had the following policy in mind, which I stated last week. I will reiterate it.

“The monthly leg turned negative and the weekly leg was confirmed by a negative line, so the upside is still showing heavy resistance. Since the monthly leg has turned negative once, I want to refrain from building long positions and it is time to look at the possibility of a slight downside in terms of the horizontal axis. On the other hand, the monthly leg can still turn positive, so I would aim to continue building long positions at the white support box directly below.”

In other words, it’s difficult to take new positions in the current price range.

The only basic policy that we continue to follow is, as I wrote before,

“BTC is

  1. The US stocks (US100 or US30) appear to be resisting the decline
  2. The short-term price correlation between the US100 and BTC is lessening
  3. BTC and Gold tend to move higher towards the end of the year

from the three points above, I am going to try to take a long position against the recent low of $18,000 for once this month. If the price breaks down below it, I will try to buy the drop down once. If the price drops to a lower low with a large drop, I will stop trying to take a long position.

I would like to approach it with this policy.

 

US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100 showed a big rebound this week at the white support box, which I had set up earlier in the week. Next week, I expect the market to either hover around this area or, if it wants to move higher, to the horizontal resistance box directly above. Remember, this setup did not come out of the blue this time, but has been in the works for more than six months and has been consistently a very simple charting setup. All that is displayed is a candlestick, a horizontal box, and two types of MAs. Please compare this article with the previous one. They are practically the same. If you carefully analyze the chart from the top leg, you can see where the price movement is likely to rebound, and you can take a long position there, even though the general trend is down.

 

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch it as well. Another way of putting it is that when taking a position in BTC, you also need to consider the movement of this index.

 

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update – 10-17-2022

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)

BTC Trading Practices

 

BTC Overview

The recent trend of the market’s movement continues to give the strong impression it has been enduring the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without much correlation, while there being few signs of a stand-alone upturn. The market continues to be range-bound with limited upside potential.

I took one long position this week, which I will focus on as a case study.

The difficulty in the current market is it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offensive. (Repost)

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

The monthly leg has turned negative, the weekly leg is also confirmed by a negative line, and the upside is still seeing resistance. Since the monthly leg has turned negative once, we want to refrain from building long positions and it is time to look at the possibility of a slight downside in terms of the horizontal axis. On the other hand, the monthly leg is still within the range to turn positive, so we would like to continue to build long positions around the white support box directly below.

 

The basic policy as I wrote previously is,

 

“With BTC,

(1) US stocks (US100 or US30) appear to be withstanding the decline.

(2) The short-term price correlation between the US100 and BTC is lessening.

(3) BTC and gold tend to rise toward the end of the year.

 

based on the above three factors, we are going to try to take a long position at the recent low of $18,000 for a while this month. If the price breaks slightly below this level, I will try to buy the dip once. If the price drops below $18,000 plus a big drop to a new low, I will stop trying to take long positions.”

 

I would like to stand on such policy.

 

Overview of the US100

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

Last month, I stated, “The beginning of the week this week was in line with this view. However, it has since made a large negative line, and the upside is heavy. Since the monthly leg is still positive, we are still looking for the price to rise again at the end of the week based on that assumption, but if it continues to fall, we will need to consider the downside to the resistance area below the current price area. We will keep this in mind this week and watch the price action closely.” “This week, the price tested lower, reversed at the white support box, and fell again. (The point of this reversal was the CPI rebound, which is discussed below.)

We will continue to observe price movements next week with the same chart setup. The key point to watch is whether the price will reverse again at the white support box where it showed a short-term rebound last week, or whether the price will break even lower.

 

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as often stated, we need to watch this one as well. When taking a position in BTC, remember to consider the movement of the index.

 

BTC Trading Practices

First of all, we are trading on the assumption there will be an economic indicator, CPI, at 21:30 (JST) on this day, which is likely to result in large volatility. The recent trend has been the release of economic indicators tending to increase volatility in the exchange rate, stock prices, indices, and BTC.

  1. ↑ First, the chart setup just prior to the long position is illustrated above. It displays a horizontal support box from a while ago and horizontal resistance lines (two light blue lines).

  1. ↑ Observing the previous chart from a weekly macro perspective, it looks as such. The price area around $18,153 is a long point because it is the tip of last week’s wicks and also the weekly wick zone.

  1. ↑ This is around 20:30 JST on the hourly before the CPI. If it continues to fall, I am considering building a long position at the lower horizontal line OR horizontal support box.

  1. Finally, the CPI at 21:30 JST showed a violent drop and rebounded at the pre-drawn horizontal line, keeping in mind the market opening in New York at 22:30, aiming for a second bottom entry instead of the bottom.

  1. BTC at around 22:25 just before NY opening time. Assuming a double bottom & upside reversal into NY around this area, I placed my stop loss a little below the tip of the most recent wick and built a long position.

  1. ↑ It then reversed at 22:30 at the New York market venue with an initial lower wick showing a rise.

  1. ↑ Profit-taking was done in stages, but all of this long position was taken at the horizontal box. These are the trades I made this week and what I was thinking at the time.
Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update – 10-10-2022

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
XRP Miscellaneous
US100 Overview

 

BTC Overview

Although it was good the weekly update moved up in tandem with the rebound in the US 100 and US 30, it has since continued to move higher. As mentioned last week, this gives the strong impression the market is enduring the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without much correlation. At the same time, there are few signs of a stand-alone rally. The market continues to be range-bound at the moment.

Altcoin XRP is charting well, so please read my brief analysis of it this week.

The difficulty in the current market is it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a composite manner.

Since monetary easing has come to an end, funds have been pulled out of the market and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no rush to build a long time horizon buying position. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offensive. (Repost)

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

As we saw last week, the price rose with the weekly update, but was unable to exceed the recent high of $20,500 and is now showing a move back to around the monthly opening price of $19,400. As usual, the market continues to be both firm on the downside and heavy on the upside.

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

The above chart shows the monthly price as of the writing of this article, which is just in the price range of the monthly attack and defense points. Next week, it will be interesting to see if this area can be defended. Since the lower monthly leg is barely positive, I still want to continue targeting long positions, but if next week’s price action seems to reduce the likelihood of a positive monthly leg for this month, I have decided to discontinue that policy. In that case, as I wrote last week, we will need to consider whether we can pivot from $18,000. We will look at that policy decision in conjunction with the movement of the US100 and US30.

 

The only basic policy, as I wrote last week is:

 

“BTC is

  1. US stocks (US100 or US30) appear to be resisting the decline.
  2. The short-term price correlation between US100 and BTC is becoming less
  3. BTC and Gold tend to go up toward the end of the year.

 

from the three points above, I am going to try to take a long position against the recent low of $18,000 for once this month. If the price breaks down a little, I will try to buy when it is down once. If the price drops to a lower low with a big drop, I will stop trying to take a long position.”

 

I would like to stand around with this policy.

 

↓ XRPUSDT daily candlestick chart

Let me analyze the XRP chart because of its better structure compared to BTC.

The first thing I find the structure better is…

  1. The price is above the daily 200 MA (recently exceeded)
  2. Appears to be breaking out of the blue trendline
  3. Once it bounced off the resistance box and appears to be retrying to break through it.

That is why.

It appears a Ripple event called Swell will be held in November. This event has been held many times in the past, and on those occasions, XRP has often tended to rise in price until just before the event.

For these reasons, we would continue to target long positions next week.

 

US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

 

First, a recap of last week’s article and the actual price action is in order.

 

Last week’s article pointed out, “there is a strong possibility of a rebound in that area ($11,000) due to the presence of several horizontal support boxes and also the weekly 200 MA. Since the monthly update is also due this week, we will be watching for a short-term rebound and a positive monthly turnaround in this price area in the next week or so.

Of course, there is a possibility the price could open the week lower, but there is a white support box (around $10,500) just below that will serve as a resistance zone, and I think the monthly leg will eventually turn positive.” I wrote.

 

At the beginning of the week, the price moved in line with this view. However, a large negative line has since appeared, and the upside is heavy. However, if the price continues to fall, we will need to consider the downside potential to the resistance zone below the current price level. We will keep this in mind this week and watch price movements closely.

 

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, we need to watch this one as well. When taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of the index as well.

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update – 10-3-2022

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term Technical Analysis)

US100 Overview

 

BTC Overview

It was another strong week for the dollar, with prices generally trending lower against the U.S. dollar, and both the US 100 and US 30 and Gold were generally weak, as they both headed lower and made new lows.

 

However, the BTC price is still likely to rebound in the short term, so this week should be watched closely. As the month turns over, we would like to build positions based on the positive monthly trend.

 

BTC also showed a decline this week, in tandem with the decline in the US100, and continues to have a heavy upside. However, as we mentioned last week, we have the strong impression BTC has been able to withstand the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without being too closely correlated to the declines in other markets. This week, I feel the correlation between BTC and the US 100 has been even less. This is something to keep in mind. To put it more simply, we are noting BTC has not made new lows while the US100 and US30 have made new lows.

 

The difficulty in the current market is it is impossible to make a judgment based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

 

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar showing strength, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offense. (repost)

 

↓ Monthly candlestick chart of BTCUSD

This week we will start with the standard environmental recognition as we have a monthly update in between. Last month was a negative candle with small substance. The recent low was not broken and the market was range bound. The initial move this month is lower.

 

As I somewhat mentioned in my opening overview:

  1. BTCUSD appears to be holding its own against a decline in US equities (US100 or US30)
  2. The short term price correlation between the US100 and BTC is lessening
  3. BTC and Gold tend to rise toward the end of the year

 

From the three points above, I am going to try to take a long position against the recent low of $18,000 if I can this month. If the price breaks down a little, I will try to buy the dip once. If the price drops below $18,000, the low with a big drop thus I will stop trying to take a long position.

 

↓ Comparison of BTCUSD daily and horizontal axis

Next, let’s look at the daily chart. First, look at the horizontal axis (market cycle). As you can see in the chart above, it seems the price movement is about to show a direction in terms of the cycle. (This is an even more macro view than last week’s horizontal axis analysis.)

 

Combined with the monthly update and other factors, I also believe volatility is likely to expand somewhat from this simmering price action.

 

Combining these factors with the monthly analysis in the previous section, we think we will stand in a long position for the time being. From a macro perspective, the current price range is the high of 2017, and we can see once again this area is a place where the market can struggle, where selling and buying can compete with each other. This is a level where a rebound is possible.

 

Of course, the possibility of a break below is not zero, and in such case, I will stop chasing longs.

 

 

US100 Overview

 

↓ 3-day candlestick chart of US100

The US100 is falling again, as it did last week.

 

Last week I stated, “judging solely by the chart, I think it is likely to attack lower prices to the recent lows around $11,000-$11,500.” The price fell to approximately this area, and the candlestick closed.

 

 

There are several horizontal support boxes in that area, and furthermore, the weekly 200 MA is present, so a rebound is likely. Since the monthly update is also due this week, we will keep a close eye on this price area from next week to see if a short-term rebound and a positive turnaround on the monthly leg can be seen.

 

Of course, there is a possibility the price will continue to fall after the week, but there is a white support box (around $10,500) immediately below that will serve as a resistance zone, and we think the monthly price will eventually turn positive.

 

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch this as well. To reiterate, when taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of the index as well.

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update – 9-26-2022

Contents

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA)

Overview of the US100

 

 

BTC Overview

This week was a strong week for the dollar, with markets generally trending lower against the dollar, and both the US100 and US30 and Gold were looking to make new lows and recent lows. Next week will be one to watch, as the price has come down to a price range which is likely to show a short-term rebound.

 

BTC has been falling in tandem with the decline in the US 100 this week, and the market has continued to move lower and higher. Of course, in the big picture, the market is ranging.

 

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

 

Since monetary easing has come to an end, funds have been pulled out of the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no rush to build a long time horizon buying position. This is a phase to protect funds, not to be on the offense. (reiterated)

 

↓ Daily candlestick chart of BTCUSD

Continuing from last week, it is easy to see on a daily basis the market is in a range. Since the current price range is at the lower end of the range, it seems more promising to target long positions at such times as the weekly update, rather than taking short positions in an attempt to break through the lower end of the range.

 

↓ Daily candlestick chart of BTCUSD w/horizontal axis added

Also, although this is only a hypothetical double bottom at the bottom of these two points, I think it is running out unless the price shows signs of a reversal soon, even on the horizontal axis. In other words, if we fail to move up within the next week, the probability of a break below this low price area will increase. Next week will also be interspersed with monthly updates, so it may be worth looking at the possibility of an initial swing lower around that time, creating a lower wick, and then a positive turnaround.

 

Continuing from last week, again from a macro perspective, we can see the current price area is the high of 2017, and this area is once again a place where we can struggle, i.e., where selling and buying could be competing with each other.

 

Based on such at this point, it is important to assume the market is in a range. Specifically, buy at $18,000 and sell at or near $26,000.

 

In a ranging market, the basic rule is “buy low and sell above.” In this case, selling at $18,000 is not a good idea. Even if we break below this low in the future, it is necessary to create a horizontal axis in the form of a holding triangle. As I wrote above, I would like to keep the above policy for a while as long as the market does not break below this current range.

 

Overview of the US100

↓ Weekly candlestick chart of US100

The US100 fell again last week.

 

Last week I said, “judging by the chart alone, I think we are likely to attack lower prices to the recent lows around $11,000-$11,500.” The price fell to approximately this area and the candlestick closed.

 

The reason is that there are several horizontal boxes in that area and the 200MA is also present, so a rebound is highly likely. Therefore, we will be watching closely to see if a short-term rebound can be seen in this price area in the next week or so.

 

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch BTC as well. In other words, when taking a position in BTC, you need to take into account the movement of the index as well.