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Overview

Weekly Market Update 02-19-2024

BTCUSDT

1D analysis

Weekly chart showed the formation of a bearish harmonic formation previously. But we should note that price made a bullish market structure break on the weekly chart. Therefore, this bearish pattern can be just considered as a correction of the bullish move. We should not expect any lower levels than fib 0.618 of the pattern. The price was within a range since early December. It was broken last week and price moved upwards with strong candles. Two fair value gap zones are present on the sell side. One of them is quite close to that level. Although RSI seems to be saturated, it may want to reach the fair value gap zone. $55,000 can be target on the bullish side. Then, we may expect the reversal movement.

1H analysis

A minor correction attempt was recorded on Saturday but it was not strong enough and shook out some long positions. On the other hand, it did not fully filled the fair value gap. Lower time frame EMAs neither cross each other nor EMA200. Controversially, there is a bullish RSI divergence on 1H chart. The price can continue its movement until the fair value gap above, which is between $54,000 and $56,000.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

At the previous analyses, we focused on the movement behaviour and driving force for the price movements of gold. Internal liquidities and imbalance zones had significant importance. The extreme dashed lines show the price levels that should be exceeded to make either a break of structure or market structure break. The overall high time frame is bullish on gold. Until the end of 2023, price is within a range and no market structure exists on 4H time frame. Recently, the price swept the major imbalance. The price reversed on lower time frame to bullish structure. As lower time frames are less confidential, we can expect a price move as shown by the red path.

15 min analysis

Market moved downwards with a strong momentum. After forming the market structure, turned to bullish. The only indicator of turning to bullish is not just the price candles, EMA20/50/100/200 crossed from bearish to bullish. This is also an important sign of the market shift. Higher time frame imbalance is mitigated and is no more important. At the current time, there is a fair value gap that should be filled, which formed during the last impulsive downward movement.

EURUSD

1W analysis

It is sometimes necessary to make higher time frame analysis to reveal the possible target zones, which can serve an interest to the price. On the weekly time frame we realized a harmonic pattern. It reached its target by tapping the premium zone. Price could not find any support to continue its upward movement. It was reversed twice from EMA200 level. On the other hand there is a market structure break on the weekly chart. The price pattern is nearly completing a Quasimodo pattern. After its formation, definitely, the below fair value gap around 1.02 pair price will be the target.

4H analysis

The apparent structure on 4H is bearish since it has closed candles several times under some swing low points. Low number of EMAs crossed high number of exponential moving averages on bearish side. Price left a fair value gap above. Therefore, it may want to reach that point and then continue its downward movement.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

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Overview

Weekly Market Update 02-12-2024

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

Previously we expected a test to range high. It was broken and price increased sharply as it decreased. The price reached the liquidity levels. But it has not taken yet. There is RSI divergence. This can suggest a sign for reversal. But BTC can increase although two lower highs forms in the RSI. Therefore price can increase some more and then make a correction possibly to range high level.

15 min analysis

There is a bullish continuity on 15 minute chart. Price made a break of structure. A correction is possible to remove internal liquidities present on the chart. If it happens, t will probably be around EMA200. Upon a touch to that level, we may go long on the price.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

Gold is removing internal liquidities for a long time. We expected the imbalance to be removed last week. But the price tapped there and then moved to sweep some sell-side internal liquidities. Double bottom was formed as shown by the red circle. Price can now move upwards. The extreme dashed liens shows the prices that should be reached to make a break of structure or market structure break.

15 min analysis

There is a visible three impulsive bullish moves with two minor corrections and then a bigger move occurred. Instead of naming is as break of structure, we can think of a possible inducement, which removed internal liquidities. After that price formed double bottom. There is not a significant risk unless there is a candle close below the value that is shown by yellow circle.

EURUSD

1D analysis

We conducted 4H analysis for HTF. We continue HTF by 1D analysis this week. Price reached the daily order block. A small liquidity was swept and price had four bullish candles. Fair value gap s present where bullish market structure break was formed.  Price will follow first the fair value gap and the liquidity just below the extreme liquidity, shown by yellow box unless it losses the yellow box shown by green colour.

1H analysis

Price left a wide fair value gap between the last lower low and lower high. Double bottom was formed within the 1D order block which was mentioned in HTF analysis. Price made an insignificant break of structure. EMA 20/50/100/200 all reached to similar value, which suggests a possible bullish candle. If this is the case, then we will expect the price move that was shown as the path.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

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Overview

Weekly Market Update 02-05-2024

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

The range formation from the early December is still in progress. The range was deviated twice on the bullish side and one time on the bearish side. In the meantime, the price is just over the equilibrium of the range. Although 4H market structure shifted to bearish, there is still some more change for the price to increase. $45,000 is the fib 0.618 of the last impulsive down leg. In order to reach there, price has to make a deviation on the sell-side. Then we may expect lower prices unless there is break of structure.

15 min analysis

On 15 minute chart, another range is shown. It is the Monday range formed last week. The price remained within the range and just made some deviations. The price is still within the range and just over equilibrium level as with the 4H range level. Price can sweep the liquidity around fib 0.5 of the range and then move higher prices. Actually, new range will be formed on the next Monday.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

For long time, the market structure of gold is in bullish market structure. However, it was in a corrective downward leg. If we consider the impulsive upward movement, which was shown by the black colour, we could observe that the price reversed from optimal trade entry zone of the HTF Fibonacci level. Last week, we showed that the price also reversed from another optimal trade entry of LTF upward impulsive leg. There is still evidence that price can reach $2,090 since the market structure has not shifted. The expectation is that price will fill the imbalance first, it can move some more sideways and then want to test the buy-side liquidity.

15 min analysis

There is a continuation of the bullish market structure on 15 minute chart. Price made break of structure twice since the market structure was bullish on the current time frame. Then, price swept liquidities twice. Those movements can be deemed as fuel for the price to move upwards. There is significant imbalance that should be repaired. Price will want to first fix the imbalance, then it will target swing high value.

EURUSD

4H analysis

The last market structure on 4H is bullish. Therefore, we expect the price reversals some point of interest areas within the discount zone. After fixing the imbalance price reached the order block. Here can be regarded as a good entry price for long positions. Stop-loss can be put under the last swing low and take-profit can be over the swing high. The best place can be the sell-side fair value gap zone.

15 min analysis

As with 4H chart, the market structure is bullish on 15 min chart. Price made a break of structure and nearly tested the liquidity. But, it was unable to sweep the liquidity. Current price movement is towards the sell-side. Therefore, price can reach the dashed line and then increase to first fill the fair value gap and then to make a new BoS.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update 01-29-2024

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

There is a significant range formation since the early December. The range was deviated two times on the bullish side and one time on the bearish side. In the meantime, the price is within the range and recently it got reaction from the equilibrium of the range. The equilibrium of the range is important since it shows that the range is still valid and working properly. On the other hand, there is a market structure break on 4H chart. After a pullback towards the range low, the price can target range high level. This will lead to close either fair value gaps below and top of the current price level.

1W analysis

We have not done long term analysis for a long time. This kind of long term analysis can be useful for spot or long term traders. If we analyse RSI in conjunction with the price, after bearish RSI signals, price dropped sharply. One historic data is from 2021 with the green boxes. The other is from the current time. On late 2023, we observe the bearish RSI divergence. A HTF harmonic pattern is also formed. Actually, I would expect the price at least reach 1.13 of the X-D plane. However, on the weekly chart, it seems that just liquidity of the previous price level was taken. Considering these two factors, a pullback down to $28,000-30,000 can be expected on a higher time frame. If this happens, it will be a good entry price for long term holders since price will move from premium zone to discount zone.

 

XAUUSD

4H analysis

Price reached an imbalance zone on the daily chart. on the mid-January price reached its local lowest point. A market structure break was formed on 4H chart, shown as in the figure. Price returned to the optimal trade entry location, which is between fib 0.705-0.786 of the last leg up. The reaction from the zone can be seen by the wick generated within the blue box. This was an opportunity for the traders to take long positions. As of HTF analysis, $2,100s is till the target.

15 min analysis

On 15 minute chart, the structure of the market is bearish. Significant swing high and low points are shown by the red path. The last downward movement with remarkable volume and momentum shifted the market structure on the lower time frame. There is pretty good order block that a fair value gap follows. Such order blocks attract the candles to be reached there. On the short period, we will expect $2,030s. According to the reaction from the order block we can decide whether to go on long or close long and take short positions. On HTF analysis, we expect the market to change its direction.

EURUSD

4H analysis

Following the market structure break on 4H chart, EURUSD pair nearly filled the entire fair value gap. Actually, we expected the bullish movement last week, however, price moved some more downwards to close the gap. As the market structure is bullish, we may expect the above fair value gap around 1.115s.

15 min analysis

Market structure recently shifted to bullish on 15 minute chart. Some bearish formations worked well so far. They pushed the pair price downwards, which filled more gaps within the imbalance zone on HTF. After making the market structure break, price reversed from the bearish order block, which is shown by the red colour. Now, it is a mitigated block. Therefore, it is not likely to hold the price second time. We can expect the price to move in the market structure direction from the breaker block that is shown in the chart.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

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Overview

Weekly Market Update 01-22-2024

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

we have been observing a range for a long time between $44,700 and $40,300. The bullish shark pattern is still valid, since its D point is now extended until nearly 1.618. TP2 of the harmonic pattern is $45,670. This level now overlaps with the bearish order block on 15 min chart. Therefore, we may expect a rise until that level.

15 min analysis

After some bullish movements, price of BTC is trapped within a 0.9% gap for the last two days. After the weekly open, we may expect a break of the range. The most likely break can be upwards, since higher time frame analysis indicate higher levels. But we should always use stop loss below the deviation level of the lower boundary of the range. fib 0.5 of the range exhibited a strong resistance. Once it is broken, range high can be reached. Then after the break of range high, price can keep going higher levels by testing $42,200.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

On the daily chart, most of the imbalance was repaired by the price. The aforementioned gap below $2,013 was somehow recovered. There is not a clear sign of bearish scenario at the moment for the daily chart. The liquidity above is still the target, which is around $2,090.

1H analysis

The box area with the turquoise colour has been an inducement zone. The box worked as an order block and price dropped within the imbalance. After that we could observe a minor market structure break. The target is still $2,090 as with the higher time frame analysis.

EURUSD

4H analysis

EURUSD pair showed well agreement with the analysis of the last week for both short term and long term analyses. Initial reaction was expected from the internal FVG. Then, a movement to the FVG below was expected. Price actually drew that pattern. Not all the gap was filled but the movement was satisfactory. A positive RSI divergence was formed. Now the current movement can occur until the FVG above. The possible pattern is shown by red colour.

15 min analysis

On lower time frame, it is obvious that the market structure was shifted to bullish. We can observe both by the candles and EMA crossings. EMA20/50/100 are now over EMA200. On the other hand, price retested the order block which generated the market structure break. The closest target can the bearish order block, which started the downward movement. Until that pair price value, liquidity levels can be good locations for price retracements.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update 01-15-2024

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

There was a range starting from the beginning of December 2023. In the last week’s bulletin, we expected a range manipulation above and actually, the price reached $49k level. Price instantly moved inside the range and 0.5 level of the range held the price well. The last wick formed a swing failure pattern, which is a reversal sign. Also, we can see a bullish shark pattern. The TP1 and TP2 targets of this harmonic pattern are $44,300 and $46,100, respectively.

15 min analysis

The short term chart for 4H is depicted with 15 min. Bearish order block is just below $46,000, which is nearly same with TP2 of the harmonic pattern on 4H. After testing that level, we can expect a reversal. Since there was a swing failure pattern on higher time frame chart.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

Daily analysis of the last week worked well since the imbalance zone was tested and EMA 50 was crossed. Although our expectation was $2,000-$2,015, the reached lowest price was $2,013. That means, there are still some more gaps below. There is not a clear sign of bearish scenario at the moment for the daily chart. So that, we expect the price to move upwards.

1H analysis

The liquidity below was swept and the imbalance zone was tested below the swing low point. The market structure was shifted to bullish on 1H time frame. Also, EMA200 was broken upwards, which is another bullish market sign. It was tested just after the break and the price kept its positive move. The swing high at around $2,090 is the next possible target.

EURUSD

1H analysis

Any significant price movement didn’t occur since the last week. After reaching the liquidity the target could be the fair value gap below. Actually, it is still the target on 1H chart. The liquidity which filled FVG was swept. It somehow generated a downward momentum. Although four different EMA levels are on the same level, the drop of RSI is obvious. Price candles can move towards the fair value gap below.

5 min analysis

On the left of the figure, bearish candle and its strong momentum is obvious. price tested the order block formed during that downward move. If we consider the strong move a range, price has not broken that range yet. Inner liquidities are open right now and they can be target. the fair value gap above can push the price downwards. A short position can be taken there. But there is possibility for the price to move some more higher levels. if that happens, second entry point can be another entry point. So one can try the first position just with 0.5R and the next 1R. The target can be the inner liquidity level.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update 01-08-2024

BTCUSDT

1D analysis

There was a range starting from the beginning of December 2023. In the last week’s bulletin, we expected a range manipulation above and then a strong downward movement if the range high does not hold the price. This scenario worked quite well. Now the price is still above EMA20. If we check RSI, the momentum is losing its efficiency. This week is quite important in terms of ETF approvals. Once approval news is issued, then we may expect a severe pump on BTC price. After that a possible “sell the news” can happen. If it happens, profit realization can drive the price down to $35,000s in the first instance.

1H analysis

The fixed range volume profile shows how important the current price is. The range was prepared from the last swing high price until the current price. Price is just above the point of control, where is the line, the highest trade occurred. Value high can be broken upwards by the increase of volume and then we may expect higher prices.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

The market is in an uptrend since October 2023 on the daily chart. The price is within the retracement leg of the last upward move. $2,000-2,015 seems to be a reasonable reversal area since there is a fair value gap and a possible EMA100 cross at the lower boundary of the zone and EMA50 cross at the upper boundary of the zone.

1H analysis

Market structure shifted to bearish on 1 H chart. On lower time frames there were possible earlier signs of reversal but taking into consideration of 1H chart, the price drop with huge momentum, which resulted a MSB, created a bearish order block. The price well reacted from the order block. We can still expect lower prices until reaching the imbalance zone below around $1,995-2,015. This area is also the potential reversal zone that we analyzed on 1D chart.

EURUSD

1D analysis

Market structure was shifted to bearish on October 2023. The price reached the premium zone. There is still a fair value gap that the price could reach, however, it was not easy for the price to reach that level. In the closest view, there is another fair value gap that can be filled below the pair price. The upper boundary of the box corresponds to EMA50, the lower boundary of the box corresponds to EMA200. These are possible reversal price areas. After the reversal, price can keep going downwards to make a break of structure, below 1.045s.

1H analysis

The liquidity below was swept by the price and this created a momentum, which could close the fair value gap above. After that price reached the equilibrium of the last short term range. Now we can expect again to attack another liquidity above, then expect some more price drop.

 

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update 01-01-2024

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

The price has undergone a correction after the last bullish move. A range was formed through the correction movement. A harmonic pattern was formed within the last swing high and swing low points, which are shown by orange circles. previously mentioned harmonic pattern reached its target price. Now, we can observe a bullish RSI divergence. This may cause the price to go higher levels. We may expect the price to go beyond the higher level of the range. If it happens, two different paths will be possible. IF RH holds the price, it means BTC will go higher prices. If not, RL will be broken and we may expect further lower prices.

15min analysis

After following a bullish path, price made mitigation. then price continued its bearish movement and swept liquidity form swing low. After that, mitigation block held the price and a strong bearish movement occurred. The market structure was shifted. The fresh order block was reached once but there is possibility to be reached once more. As the bearish movement was made by relatively more impulsive candles with higher volume, it is worth trying for a short position.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

an inverse shoulder-head-shoulder formation was identified last week and the price is still increasing according to that formation. A little correction was observe, however, it did not make a market structure shift in the current time frame. EMA50 held the price. This point also corresponds to value high of the equally distributed volume profile. the target is still $2,100s.

15 min analysis

Market structure shifted to bearish on 15 min chart. The bearish order block was instantaneously followed by fair value gap. Some part of the fair value gap was filled. However, the price still makes lower lows and lower highs. In the current structure, a liquidity removal may drive the price to upper levels. $2054 is a possible liquidity price. The price can increase from this level.

EURUSD

4H analysis

The generated bearish butterfly was invalidated last week. A new harmonic formation is now possible due to the point of interest that is available from long ago. Bearish deep crap can be formed if the price wants to fill the fair value gap. the retracement of that pattern will probably bring the fair value gap below. therefore, the first target will be 1.115-1.118 and then we may expect 1.09-1.08 pair price.

15 min analysis

By the huge bearish candles, market structure shifted from bullish on 15 min time frame. the order block worked well and did not let the price go above. There are significant fair value gaps on the chart. The upper most and lower most FVGs were previously shown on 4H chart. There are two more fair value gaps from 15 min chart. The most likely path for the price is shown by the red colour.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update 12-25-2023

BTCUSDT

1D analysis

The pre-drawn yellow box is a point of interest on weekly chart. the price could not ultimately move above that value. we observe a shrinking RSI for several weeks on the daily chart. If we consider the weekly chart, RSI is quietly saturated. We may observe some correction from the current price. This may be due to the loss of BTC dominance. If this is the case, we will see some altcoin pumps  at the same time. Another alarming sign is the USDT dominance. On the daily chart, there is bullish RSI divergence. Dominance is around 5.58% currently. Correction can be until 7.2%. If this scenario happens, then the pre-drawn FVG can be the target.

1H analysis

Although the price was bullish on the hourly chart, a severe correction was realized and a change of character was present for the current time frame. The price is still within the corrective leg, where the swing points are shown with the circles. the current price move generated a bearish harmonic formation. If the last rang, shown by yellow box, is broken downwards, $42,000s can be the target of 1H chart.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

According to the analysis of last week, we expected the price to fill the FVG, which is shown by light gray colour on the chart. The price was unable to go lower values. We can now observe an inverted shoulder-head-shoulder formation. the target for this formation will be $2,100s. After the reach of the price to the target, we may then look for a possible move to the FVG zone below.

15 min analysis

There is a bullish market structure continuation on the 15 min chart. the price is around 0.786 of the last up leg. There is a bullish RSI divergence on the short term. A bullish movement can be expected. In this case, stop can be the last higher low and take profit can be selected as the last higher high. Position risk reward ratio will be 2.74.

EURUSD

4H analysis

The price path expectation according to the analysis of last week was to reach the small FVG zone and then visit the bigger FVG then take the liquidity at 1.1 pair price. The pair price reached the small FVG but did not reverse from that zone, instead it moved forward to take the liquidity. .during that move, a bearish butterfly was formed. Target of that pattern is 1.097. On the other hand, we observe an unfinished pattern, which is shown by light gray colour. According to this formation, the price is around C point of the harmonic pattern. The probable D point will be within the unvisited FVG zone between 1.085 and 1.079 pair price. Additionally, a bearish RSI divergence is present between A and D points of bearish butterfly pattern.

15 min analysis

On the short term chart, the availability of bearish butterfly pattern is visible. Price dropped from D point with a bearish RSI divergence. There is also a possible shoulder-head-shoulder formation. If it is occurred, the target will fit to the target of the harmonic pattern. It is also top of the closest FVG zone.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

Categories
Overview

Weekly Market Update 12-18-2023

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

The liquidity sweeping, RSI decrease and the below fair value gap was significant indicators for us for an impactful fall of the price. It really reached FVG and went somewhat below that value with just one candle. The price is consolidating within a symmetric triangle. Such structures has potential of two sided movement opportunities. The decision should be given after the movement of the price. First break and potential mitigation should be taken into consideration.

15 min analysis

As with HTF analysis, there are open liquidities below and above the current price with similar potentials to attract the price. Again as mentioned earlier, it is not easy to know the exact first movement. We should make our decision according to first movement. After sweeping one side liquidities, price will probably reverse and take the other liquidities. We should enter any position as the opposite of the first movement after taking the most extreme liquidity.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

The market structure of gold is bullish, the price made a break of structure, showing its continuation in bullish side. After the corrective move of the bullish leg, price moved up by a candle with a significant fair value gap. According to volume profile, the lowest trade volume was around $2,000. That means there was not an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Price may want to retest that value. Then, we may expect the continuation of the current structure to upper values.

15 min analysis

A more detailed picture of the pattern is available on 15 min chart. There are some more fair value gaps that are invisible on HTF charts. There was a price increase since December 14th, although RSI was losing its momentum. This was a bearish sign on 15 min chart. The price dropped and reacted that bearish call. During the price drop, it left fair value gap apart from the large one which is between $1,980-2,000. According to LTF chart, price can first sweep the closest FVG and then target the further FVG. After all, we can expect HTF analyse targets.

EURUSD

4H analysis

Price of EURUSD pair has a bullish structure on 4H chart. After the last swing high, price came close to make a BoS, however, it could neither took liquidity nor made a BoS. In the current form, it seems as a mitigation. RSI has a bearish divergence. Therefore, it can move within the fair value gap. Then, we may expect continuation of the price on bullish side.

15 min analysis

15 minute chart a bit differed from 4H chart by having some more minor FVGs. A remarkable fair value gap is available at around 1.094 with a significant bullish RSI divergence. In my opinion, the first target will be the closest FVG. Then, we may expect the pair price to reach the fair value gap located below. At the end, HTF structure can be followed for the continuation of the structure.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.