Category: Overview

BTC Overview (Long- and Short-Term TA and Analysis)

This week (3/13 – 3/19), BTC made a sharp turnaround from last week, rebounding from the $20,000 area and moving well past the recent high of $25,000. To be honest, this development was quite difficult to read, but one theory is BTC is being bought on the back of the increase in the Fed’s balance sheet due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. In other words, the tightening of monetary policy which has been continuing since last year seems to be temporarily tilting in the direction of pseudo-easing.

Since volatility is large and funds can easily enter into altcoins, it would be good to trade aggressively.

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

Both the monthly and weekly charts have turned significantly positive, a change from last week’s air of whether or not the $20,000 level could be defended. The next likely target is around $30,000, as can be seen from the figure. Judging from the large lower wick and other factors, the positive outlook looks good for this month.

Based on the idea of resistance/support, we may be looking at the possibility of a push to the recent resistance zone around $25,000.

Once again, the rise in $BTC has improved the overall sentiment in the virtual currency market, making altcoins easier to trade higher. Once again, we were able to fight the battle to buy altcoins after BTC went up. I don’t think altcoins have caught up to the rise of BTC yet, so I think there is a good chance.

The Funding Rate and other factors suggest the market is not yet overheated, and it appears it will be good to be long altcoins for a while.

The tips for trading altcoins should be reiterated. However, it is a pattern-association game, and once you get used to it, it is certainly easy to get used to. It is also impossible to take advantage of all pumps, so we want to trade without overreacting.

(1) Altcoins which have not been listed on Binance for a long time and have not been cleaned up too much

(2) Altcoins in the same genre as the altcoins that have shown a large rise in recent days

(3) Altcoins with high volume (because if the board is too thin, stop orders are likely to be reaped by the wicks)

(4) Position with the daily 200MA

(Altcoins are attracted to the 200MA and show a big rise when the price crosses the 200MA)

Be sure to trade with these four points in mind.

BTC Overview (Long-term and short-term TA and Policy)

This week (3/6 – 3/12), the BTC price was meeting heavy resistance to the upside, falling below the $20,000 level. The market is expected to remain in the current price range for some time to come, and whether it can maintain the $20,000 level is a key point to watch. BTC continues to be volatile and easy to trade, but the downward trend in BTC has made it difficult to trade altcoins.

Sentiment has also been dampened by the closure of Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, both of which are closely associated with crypto asset exchanges, as well as the instability of USDC, which is associated with the bank, to maintain its $1 peg.

Article Reference↓

https://decrypt.co/123199/silicon-valley-bank-crypto-companies-contagion

↓ USDC/USDT daily chart

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

In the price action through last week (2/27-3/5), I wrote in my article, “The March monthly leg is negative so far, but I still think there is a chance for a pin bar OR a positive leg.” However, this week (3/6-3/12), the monthly leg became a negative line, which necessitated a change or revision of policy. As I wrote in my January article, the price pushed to $20,000, and the key point to watch is whether it can defend $20,000 or not.

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

Looking at the daily chart, this price range is not only a likely place to be aware of $20,000, but also a likely place to be bought once the daily 200 MA (red line) is present, so I also took a trade on the short-term rebound here.

Looking at the left side of the chart, this $20,000 attack and defense is taking time to build a horizontal axis, so we should keep an eye on the possibility that the price will neither rise nor fall immediately and that a narrow range market will continue.

Also, altcoins were lackluster last week (2/27-3/5), but if BTC shows signs of reversing around this price range, buying altcoins over the next week or so is a pretty good option. However, since it is a bit weaker than before, you need to put in loss-cut orders and other measures to trade with a pullback. It may be a good idea to wait until after the Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank incidents mentioned at the beginning of this article have calmed down.

Continuing from a little while ago, the rise in $BTC has improved the overall market sentiment for crypto assets, making altcoins easier to trade higher.

From FR and other indications, the market is not yet overheated, and it looks good to stand long altcoin for a while.

The tips for trading altcoins should be reiterated. However, it is a pattern-association game, and once you get used to it, it is certainly easy to get used to. However, it is a pattern-association game, and once you get used to it, it is certainly easy to take advantage of. It is important not to jump on a rising stock, but to carefully observe what is rising in pairs with what. It is impossible to take all the pumps, so it is better to trade without overreacting.

(1) Altcoins which have not been listed on Binance for a long time and have not been cleaned up too much.

(2) Altcoins in the same genre as the altcoin showing a big rise in the recent past.

(3) Altcoins with high volume (if the board is too thin, stop orders are likely to be trimmed by the wicks)

(4) Position with the daily 200MA

Altcoins are attracted to the 200MA and show a big rise when the price crosses the 200MA)

You should trade with these four points in mind.

BTC Overview (Long- & Short Team TA and Policy)

This week (Feb. 27~Mar. 5), BTC saw a heavy upwards price movement. It is likely the current price range will continue for some time to come, and the key point to watch is whether the market will move above $25,000 again. BTC remains volatile and altcoins are healthy, making it a possible easy environment to trade.

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

This week (2/27-3/5), we will start with our surroundings awareness as we have a monthly update in between. February’s closing was confirmed with a small-substance pin bar-like candle as we had expected beforehand. March’s monthly leg is negative so far, but we still think it could be a pin bar OR a positive candle.

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

It is easy to see from the daily chart “BTC is in a range.” Specifically, it looks as if the price will range for a while in the $21,000 to $25,000 range, creating a horizontal axis. One scenario is the price moves in such a way as to create a holding pattern and contract with some volatility.

↓ BTCUSD 1-hour candlestick and divergence chart

Continuing from last week, if we also look at the divergence, we see just before the most recent sharp drop, the divergence was slightly upward and now it is diverging significantly downwards and as of 3/5 when writing this article. The FR is also at a negative level. If it can maintain the lower divergence, I think there is room for a little upside next week (3/6-3/12). We will continue to monitor this.

Also, continuing to buy altcoins at a time when BTC is about to make a short-term reversal can present a pretty good option, as altcoins appear healthy right now.

Continuing from a little while ago, the rise in $BTC has improved the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, which makes altcoins easier to trade as they are more likely to rise.

From FR and other indicators, the market is not yet overheated, and it looks good to stand long altcoins for a while.

The tips for trading altcoins should be reiterated. However, as it is a pattern-association game, and once you get used to it, it is certainly easy to get used to. However, it is a pattern-association game, and once you get used to it, it is certainly easy to take advantage of. It is also impossible to take all the pumps, so take it easy when trading.

(1) Altcoins which have not been listed on Binance for a long time and have not been cleaned up too much.

(2) Altcoins in the same genre as the altcoin in question showing a big rise in the recent past.

(3) Altcoins with high volume (if the tradeboard is too thin, stop orders are likely to be triggered by the wicks).

(4) Position with the daily 200MA; Altcoins are attracted to the 200MA and show a big rise when the price crosses the 200MA.

Be sure to trade with these four points in mind.

This past week (2/27 – 3/5), perhaps due to the increased volatility and violent price movements of BTC, there is the feeling altcoins have not yet fully grown (not following the rise of BTC), so we would like to trade aggressively for a rise from next week onward. If we can get a positive turnaround, especially on the monthly chart, it will increase the possibility of having a position with a slightly longer time horizon.

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA and Policy)

This week (2/20-2/26), BTC showed an upward trend at the beginning of the week, but after skimming $25,000, it turned back down. As usual, BTC remains volatile and altcoins are healthy and easy to trade.

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

This week (2/20-2/26) BTC touched the $25,000 target again. Looking at the horizontal resistance box, the horizontal level suggests $30,000 is the target if the price is to be broken. Therefore, for the time being, the focus should be on whether the current price level of $25,000 can be broken through. Since the weekly price action is positive, we will continue to follow the “buy when it falls” strategy from the beginning of the month.

As I had predicted, February is likely to end up with a small candlestick with a pin bar-like shape. Next week (2/27-3/6), we will have the monthly renewal, so we need to pay attention to the movements before and after the renewal. 2/27 and 2/28 will determine whether the price will be negative or positive, so it is likely the price will move in an bullish or bearish manner.

↓ BTCUSD 1-hour candlestick & divergence chart

Let’s discuss why BTC failed to surpass $25,000 in the recent past, in relation to divergence. Divergence refers to the price difference between BTC futures and the indexed average of BTC cash prices on major exchanges. The so-called Funding Rate (FR) is also determined by the divergence, but usually the futures diverge slightly above the spot price, and when the divergence becomes too large, the upside price becomes sluggish. The chart above is a visualization of this. This is also a good reference to monitor the price movement.

Also, continuing to buy altcoins at a time when BTC is about to make a short-term reversal can be a pretty effective option, as altcoins currently appear healthy.

Continuing from a little while ago, the rise in BTC has improved the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, which makes altcoins easier to trade as they are more likely to rise.

From FR and other indicators, the market is not yet overheated, and it appears to be a good approach to be long altcoins for the time being.

The tips for trading altcoins should be reiterated. However, it is a pattern-association game, and once you get used to it, it is certainly easy to take advantage of. It is also impossible to be in all pumps, so we should trade without overreacting.

(1) Altcoins not listed on Binance for a long time and have not been cleaned up too much

(2) Altcoins in the same genre as altcoins showing a large rise recently

(3) Altcoins with high volume (if the tradeboard is too thin, stop orders are likely to be cut by the wicks)

(4) Position with the daily 200MA

Altcoins are attracted to the 200MA and can show a large rise when their price crosses the 200MA

Remember to trade with these four points in mind.

This week (2/20-2/26), perhaps due to the increased volatility and violent price movements of BTC, there is an image altcoins have not yet fully blossomed (not following the rise of BTC), so we would like to trade aggressively for a rise next week and beyond.

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA and Policy)

This week (2/13 – 2/19), BTC showed a downward trend at the beginning of the week, but the price moved to touch $25,000. As usual, BTC is easy to trade because of the volatility and altcoins looking healthy.

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

This week (2/13 – 2/19) BTC touched the $25,000 target for the week. Looking at the horizontal resistance box it is currently below, means $30,000 would be the target for a move higher. Therefore, the focus should be on whether the current price level of $25,000 can be broken through. The weekly price is also positive, so we will continue to follow the “buy when it dips” strategy from the beginning of the month.

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

On the daily level, it was easy to get long against the short-term horizontal support box around $21,200 to $21,400. In other words, on Monday, 2/13, the market was alerted before the CPI, did not move particularly, and then on 2/14, the CPI put a downward wick on the daily positive line, the weekly positive line, and the next day, the monthly positive line, which involved the weekly update and the monthly positive line. This kind of move has occurred frequently in the past, so it is good to keep it in mind.

Altcoins are healthy right now, so buying altcoins at a time when BTC is about to make a short-term reversal can be a good option.

Continuing from a while ago, the rise in $BTC has improved the overall sentiment in the virtual currency market, which makes altcoins easier to trade as they are more likely to rise.

From FR and other indications, the market is not yet overheated, and it looks good to stand long altcoins for a while.

The tips for trading altcoins should be reiterated. However, it is a pattern-association game, and once you get accustomed to it, it is certainly easy to get used to. It is also impossible to take advantage of all pumps, so take it easy and trade accordingly.

(1) Altcoins that have not been listed on Binance for a long time and have not been cleaned up too much.

(2) Altcoins in the same genre as the altcoin showing a big rise in the recent past.

(3) Altcoins with high volume (if the tradeboard is too thin, stop orders are likely to be cut by the wicks)

(4) Position with the daily 200MA

Altcoins are attracted to the 200MA and show a big rise when the price crosses the 200MA

Trading with these four points in mind can be helpful.

This week (2/13 – 2/19), perhaps due to the increased volatility and violent price movements in BTC, I have the image altcoins have not yet fully grown (not following the rise in BTC), so I would like to trade aggressively for a rise next week and beyond.

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA and Policy)

BTC showed a downward trend this week (2/6-2/12), turning down just before $25,000. Altcoins remain healthy and therefore easy to trade.

Next week (2/13-2/19), there will be an economic indicator, CPI, on 2/14, which could move the market significantly, so be careful and close out positions around it.

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

This week (2/6-2/12) BTC turned down just before $25,000 and went negative. The monthly chart is also negative.

Nevertheless, as we wrote last week, “February is also positive so far, but I am a little doubtful that it will hold, rather I envision a slight push, as I have posted before.” However, it is clear we are at the $25,000 level, which is a vulnerable level, and it would be dangerous to run into long BTC positions from here. It is better to take a wait-and-see approach. If we see a big push, I want to buy. As I said, this is to be expected.

As for the question of where to buy when the price falls, I am currently looking at the $20,000 area, the $18,000 area, and the $20,000 area as candidates for the weekly update.

Altcoins are healthy currently, so buying altcoins at a time when BTC is about to make a short-term reversal can be a pretty good option.

Continuing from a little while ago, the rise in $BTC has improved the overall sentiment in the virtual currency market, which makes altcoins easier to trade as they are more likely to rise.

From FR and other indications, the market is not yet overheated, and it looks good to stand long altcoins for a while.

The tips for trading altcoins should be reiterated. However, it is a pattern-association game, and once you get used to it, it is certainly easy to get used to. However, it is a pattern-association game, and once you get used to it, it is certainly easy to take advantage of. It is also impossible to take all the pumps, so take it easy when trading.

 

(1) Altcoins not yet listed on Binance for a long time and have not been cleaned up too much

(2) Altcoins in the same genre as altcoins showing a big rise in recently

(3) Altcoins with high volume (if the tradeboard is too thin, stop orders are likely to be taken out by the wicks)

(4) Position on the daily 200MA

Altcoins are attracted to the 200MA and show a big rise when the price crosses the 200MA

You should trade with these four points in mind.

From next week (2/13 – 2/19) onward, I would like to trade with a focus on zk-series altcoins with regards to (2).

↓ Referenced tweet:

https://twitter.com/CryptoShlug/status/1624469200327647233?t=CDjqPUSbsmw-upLJCqNIcg&s=19

 

With the ETH update in March, there is also money in the LSD (liquid staking derivatives) family of altcoins, which will be a sector to watch over the next week or so. Specifically, $LIDO, $SSV, and $RPL. The chart below is for reference.

BTC overview (Long and Short Term TA and Policy)

BTC continued to move strongly this week (1/30–2/5), without dropping significantly. However, it is still a risky move to enter a long position in BTC, as it has reached the $25,000 area, a level at which it is likely to be sold off. It would be better to wait and see. If it makes a big push, I would like to buy.

One concern is that the Feb. 3 employment report has raised concerns about a slight increase in interest rates (in the direction of buying the dollar) again.

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

This week (1/30–2/5), we are in February, and with the monthly update behind us, we will assess our customary environmental awareness.

January’s monthly update was a big positive, and February is also positive so far, but it is a bit doubtful that it will hold, rather, as previously mentioned, the image is of a slight push.

Continuing from the previous week, the rise in $BTC has improved the overall sentiment in the virtual currency market, making altcoins easier to trade as they are more likely to rise. FR and other factors suggest that the market is not yet overheated, and it looks good to stand long altcoin for a while.

The tips for trading altcoins should be reiterated. The difficulty in the current market is not all altcoins are going up equally at the same time, so the skill of screening alts by (2) (below) is necessary, but it is a pattern association game, so it is certainly easy to comprehend once you get used to it. Certainly, something to take advantage of if you can. It is also impossible to participate in altcoin pumps, so take it easy when trading.

(1) Alts which have not been listed on Binance for a long time and have not been cleaned up too much.

(2) Alts in the same genre as the altcoin showing a big rise recently.

(3) Alts with high volume (if the trade board is too thin, it is easy for stop orders to be cut by the wicks)

(4) Position with the daily 200MA

Keep in mind alts are attracted to the 200MA and show a big rise when the price crosses the 200MA

It is best to trade with these four points in mind.

With $OP and $MAGIC, which were mentioned last week as specific examples of (1) above, showed strong upward movement this week, and it was easy to see the light of the upward movement.

As for $OP, it is easy to see the resistance was used as support and a lower wick was used to make both the monthly and weekly positive. As for $OP, I also made a trade to load a long position on this lower wick and was able to make a profit.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long- and Short-Term TA and Policy)

 

This week (1/23 – 1/29), BTC continued to experience high volatility as last week, making it easier for scalpers to make short-term trades. Also, as in the previous week, BTC is less correlated to the US 100 and other traditional financial indices, which is another reason why it is easier to make short-term trades. In other words, BTC often moves on its own.

Market sentiment has improved, and the market has shifted to a situation where it is easier to get money into the market than before, i.e., altcoins other than BTC have also seen significant gains. Quite a few altcoins are showing gains.

Incidentally, the FOMC meeting on February 1 is an economic event, and monetary policy at this meeting may change the entire market trend, so please pay attention to it.

 

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

This week (1/23-1/29) BTC also continued to rise without much pushback from last week. This is a so-called medium-term uptrend. The weekly chart has been positive for three consecutive weeks, and it would be better to take long positions as needed rather than shorting the market with an easy contrarian move. Of course, we should not forget we are only back in a range when we look at the monthly chart, which is a little bit larger.

We are getting close to a monthly update.

For a rough look at the future, please refer to the article I wrote last week. However, as of now, there is still no pushback, so for the time being, it is likely to rise to the most recent resistance area around $25,000, and it will be interesting to see what happens at that point. In any case, the policy is to buy when the price falls.

Also, as I mentioned at the beginning of this article, as funds are returning to crypto assets as a whole, altcoins are also easy to trade, so I am taking aggressive positions in them. For a while, when BTC falls, altcoins are likely to push up. No signs of overheating in futures FR or other markets yet.

I’ll write more about how to choose altcoins to touch somewhere, but for now, let’s start with the following:

(1) Cryptos that have not been listed for a long time on Binance and have not been cleaned up too much

(2) Alts in the same genre as the altcoins that have shown a big rise in the recent past

(3) Cryptos with high volume (if the trade board is too thin, it is easy for stop orders to be cut by wicks)

(4) Position relation with the daily 200MA

(5) Cryptos that are attracted to the 200MA and show a big rise when the price crosses the 200MA

It is advisable to be aware of these four points.

Currently I am looking at these coins – $APT, $MAGIC, $OP, $HOOK

Since there are few holders with unrealized losses, the upside is light, and when BTC falls a bit, it makes a push to the upside, so rotating long positions in the short term is highly promising. If you see a crypto with a similar shape, it would be a good idea to perhaps make a play on it.

 

↓ APT/USDT3-day candlestick chart

↓ OP/USDT weekly candlestick chart

↓ MAGIC/USDT 3-day candlestick chart

↓ HOOK/USDT 3-day candlestick chart

Contents

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA and Policy)

This week (1/16 – 1/22), BTC continued its volatility from last week, making it easier for scalpers to make short-term trades. The market was also less closely correlated to the US 100 and other traditional financial indices, which is another reason why short-term trading was easier.

Market sentiment has improved and is turning to be more accessible than before, i.e., altcoins other than BTC have also seen significant gains.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner. Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long-time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

This week (1/16 – 1/22) BTC continued to rise without much pushback from last week. It is in a so-called medium-term uptrend. It is better to stand around in long positions as appropriate, rather than to easily go short in a countertrend. Of course, when looking at a slightly larger monthly chart, it is important to remember we are only back in a range.

For a rough idea of what to expect going forward, please refer to last week’s article. However, since there is no push at the moment, for the time being, it looks like it will rise to the most recent resistance area around $25,000, and it will be interesting to see what happens around there. We will have a monthly update in about a week, so we will also be watching for a definite position of the candles in the future.

Also, as mentioned, as funds are returning to cryptocurrencies as a whole, altcoins are easy to trade and we would like to take aggressive positions in them.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA and Policy)

 

This week (1/9 – 1/15) was the most volatile in recent memory for BTC, a change from last week’s fully reduced volatility.

Although it is not clear whether the trend has changed from a downtrend to an uptrend, the market sentiment has improved and may be shifting to a situation where it is easier to get money into the market than before. In other words, we may be prepared to take positions in altcoins other than BTC. Volatility has also comeback somewhat, so I will be looking to take positions in the next week or so.

It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment at any given time. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner. Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to be in a hurry to build buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offensive. (repost)

 

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

This week (1/9 – 1/15) BTC rose quite significantly, as I mentioned at the beginning of this article. There are three main things to keep in mind of the current situation and our strategy going forward.

 

(1) BTC’s temporary bottom seems to be around the recent low of $16,000. It appears to have made a double bottom over a period of about two months.

(2) The pattern is as follows: The price is expected to move up to the next level. Rather than continuing to rise, the price is expected to make a temporary adjustment. The following two patterns are assumed, which are often seen in BTC, and are similar to an inverted triple move. The pattern is for the price to push to $18,000 or $19,000. The monthly and annual charts are positive, so we would like to go long at the point where the price pushes.

It will be interesting to see if it also retests the daily 200MA.

 

(3) It cannot be called a trend reversal quite yet.

This is because, when observed dispassionately from the chart, it has just returned to within the range of the pre-FTX shock levels.

 

↓ BTCUSDTPerp most recent OI (open interest)

Also, looking at the OI change in the above chart, the most recent increase is due to short covering. The amount of open interest (OI) is decreasing as the price rises. In other words, this is a transitory rise due to short positions being closed out, and without an increase in new open interest, it may be difficult to maintain the rise any longer.

 

The setup of the US100 was unchanged from last week, so I have omitted it from this report.