Category: Overview

BTCUSDT

1D analysis

The pre-drawn yellow box is a point of interest on weekly chart. the price could not ultimately move above that value. we observe a shrinking RSI for several weeks on the daily chart. If we consider the weekly chart, RSI is quietly saturated. We may observe some correction from the current price. This may be due to the loss of BTC dominance. If this is the case, we will see some altcoin pumps  at the same time. Another alarming sign is the USDT dominance. On the daily chart, there is bullish RSI divergence. Dominance is around 5.58% currently. Correction can be until 7.2%. If this scenario happens, then the pre-drawn FVG can be the target.

1H analysis

Although the price was bullish on the hourly chart, a severe correction was realized and a change of character was present for the current time frame. The price is still within the corrective leg, where the swing points are shown with the circles. the current price move generated a bearish harmonic formation. If the last rang, shown by yellow box, is broken downwards, $42,000s can be the target of 1H chart.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

According to the analysis of last week, we expected the price to fill the FVG, which is shown by light gray colour on the chart. The price was unable to go lower values. We can now observe an inverted shoulder-head-shoulder formation. the target for this formation will be $2,100s. After the reach of the price to the target, we may then look for a possible move to the FVG zone below.

15 min analysis

There is a bullish market structure continuation on the 15 min chart. the price is around 0.786 of the last up leg. There is a bullish RSI divergence on the short term. A bullish movement can be expected. In this case, stop can be the last higher low and take profit can be selected as the last higher high. Position risk reward ratio will be 2.74.

EURUSD

4H analysis

The price path expectation according to the analysis of last week was to reach the small FVG zone and then visit the bigger FVG then take the liquidity at 1.1 pair price. The pair price reached the small FVG but did not reverse from that zone, instead it moved forward to take the liquidity. .during that move, a bearish butterfly was formed. Target of that pattern is 1.097. On the other hand, we observe an unfinished pattern, which is shown by light gray colour. According to this formation, the price is around C point of the harmonic pattern. The probable D point will be within the unvisited FVG zone between 1.085 and 1.079 pair price. Additionally, a bearish RSI divergence is present between A and D points of bearish butterfly pattern.

15 min analysis

On the short term chart, the availability of bearish butterfly pattern is visible. Price dropped from D point with a bearish RSI divergence. There is also a possible shoulder-head-shoulder formation. If it is occurred, the target will fit to the target of the harmonic pattern. It is also top of the closest FVG zone.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

The liquidity sweeping, RSI decrease and the below fair value gap was significant indicators for us for an impactful fall of the price. It really reached FVG and went somewhat below that value with just one candle. The price is consolidating within a symmetric triangle. Such structures has potential of two sided movement opportunities. The decision should be given after the movement of the price. First break and potential mitigation should be taken into consideration.

15 min analysis

As with HTF analysis, there are open liquidities below and above the current price with similar potentials to attract the price. Again as mentioned earlier, it is not easy to know the exact first movement. We should make our decision according to first movement. After sweeping one side liquidities, price will probably reverse and take the other liquidities. We should enter any position as the opposite of the first movement after taking the most extreme liquidity.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

The market structure of gold is bullish, the price made a break of structure, showing its continuation in bullish side. After the corrective move of the bullish leg, price moved up by a candle with a significant fair value gap. According to volume profile, the lowest trade volume was around $2,000. That means there was not an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Price may want to retest that value. Then, we may expect the continuation of the current structure to upper values.

15 min analysis

A more detailed picture of the pattern is available on 15 min chart. There are some more fair value gaps that are invisible on HTF charts. There was a price increase since December 14^th, although RSI was losing its momentum. This was a bearish sign on 15 min chart. The price dropped and reacted that bearish call. During the price drop, it left fair value gap apart from the large one which is between $1,980-2,000. According to LTF chart, price can first sweep the closest FVG and then target the further FVG. After all, we can expect HTF analyse targets.

EURUSD

4H analysis

Price of EURUSD pair has a bullish structure on 4H chart. After the last swing high, price came close to make a BoS, however, it could neither took liquidity nor made a BoS. In the current form, it seems as a mitigation. RSI has a bearish divergence. Therefore, it can move within the fair value gap. Then, we may expect continuation of the price on bullish side.

15 min analysis

15 minute chart a bit differed from 4H chart by having some more minor FVGs. A remarkable fair value gap is available at around 1.094 with a significant bullish RSI divergence. In my opinion, the first target will be the closest FVG. Then, we may expect the pair price to reach the fair value gap located below. At the end, HTF structure can be followed for the continuation of the structure.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

1W analysis

There were several bearish scenarios on daily and 4H charts. But they were invalidated by the movements of BTC. Actually, the price movement of BTC was a cypher pattern between late-2020 and mid-2022. Its target was around $48,000. Price is close to TP2 of the cypher pattern. If price moves somewhat higher, then we may expect a cup-handle formation. In this case, price can reach to fib 0.382 of the cup move, which is around $34,800. If FVG and open liquidities are targeted, a deeper correction can be $31,000s. RSI shows that it is in the overbought region and shallow or deep correction is possible. HFT target of this formation is $79,000.

4H analysis

Previously, the yellow box was prepared, which show us a very early point of interest. It was a fair value gap on HTF. During the consolidation, price took liquidity. Additional signal is the louse of momentum according to RSI drop. First potential target is $42,500. Then, we may think about the next movement whether it will be bullish or bearish according to market structure.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

Our projection of the last week was an AB=CD pattern, which had the target of $2,100. The price of gold obeyed the formation and reached to $2,100. The price was reached by a wick. Now, reversal of the formation was started. Fib 0.618 of the formation approximately corresponds to MA200 of the daily bar charts. $1,940 is the most likely bullish reversal price.

1H analysis

Price quickly reach the HTF target and dropped with a stronger momentum. At the last strong candle fair value gap was generated. It was swept almost entirely. EMA50 and EMA200 held the same line and then another bearish movement was observed. RSI reached to oversold region at the meantime. Now, price can increase to $2,030s, and then can continue its drop further.

EURUSD

4H analysis

In the 4H analysis of the last week, we expected the price to reach the fair value gap zone. It closed the gap just the last week. Last week only two of the liquidities were swept. Now, we have no more open liquidity neither fair value gap. Additionally, a bullish RSI divergence is present in the chart. It is shown by red lines. Price is about to increase. The first target can be above the last higher high, which is about 1.082 pair price.

15 min analysis

15 minute chart has numerous open liquidities. There are 5 possible target liquidities on the bullish side. Therefore, there is reason for the fair price to remove these liquidities and as with the higher time frame analysis, first target is likely to be 1.082. after reaching this value, further analysis will be made for reversal movements.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

1W analysis

There were several bearish scenarios on daily and 4H charts. But they were invalidated by the movements of BTC. Actually, the price movement of BTC was a cypher pattern between late-2020 and mid-2022. Its target was around $48,000. Price is close to TP2 of the cypher pattern. If price moves somewhat higher, then we may expect a cup-handle formation. In this case, price can reach to fib 0.382 of the cup move, which is around $34,800. If FVG and open liquidities are targeted, a deeper correction can be $31,000s. RSI shows that it is in the overbought region and shallow or deep correction is possible. HFT target of this formation is $79,000.

4H analysis

Previously, the yellow box was prepared, which show us a very early point of interest. It was a fair value gap on HTF. During the consolidation, price took liquidity. Additional signal is the louse of momentum according to RSI drop. First potential target is $42,500. Then, we may think about the next movement whether it will be bullish or bearish according to market structure.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

Our projection of the last week was an AB=CD pattern, which had the target of $2,100. The price of gold obeyed the formation and reached to $2,100. The price was reached by a wick. Now, reversal of the formation was started. Fib 0.618 of the formation approximately corresponds to MA200 of the daily bar charts. $1,940 is the most likely bullish reversal price.

1H analysis

Price quickly reach the HTF target and dropped with a stronger momentum. At the last strong candle fair value gap was generated. It was swept almost entirely. EMA50 and EMA200 held the same line and then another bearish movement was observed. RSI reached to oversold region at the meantime. Now, price can increase to $2,030s, and then can continue its drop further.

EURUSD

4H analysis

In the 4H analysis of the last week, we expected the price to reach the fair value gap zone. It closed the gap just the last week. Last week only two of the liquidities were swept. Now, we have no more open liquidity neither fair value gap. Additionally, a bullish RSI divergence is present in the chart. It is shown by red lines. Price is about to increase. The first target can be above the last higher high, which is about 1.082 pair price.

15 min analysis

15 minute chart has numerous open liquidities. There are 5 possible target liquidities on the bullish side. Therefore, there is reason for the fair price to remove these liquidities and as with the higher time frame analysis, first target is likely to be 1.082. after reaching this value, further analysis will be made for reversal movements.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

1D analysis

Price of BTC is still within the ascending channel. There is no reversal signal in the market structure. However, bearish signals arise from the chart and indicators. Price is increasing after making a fair value gap since mid-October. Controversy, RSI is dropping on the daily. There is an ascending narrowing wedge, which is clearer on a lower time frame chart. If the price starts a correction, below fair value gap zone will be the target.

1H analysis

The ascending wedge is obvious on 1H chart. Price is also oscillating around EMA100 curve. Therefore we can see sequencing green and red colours. The areas with red colour has always been corrections of each up-leg movement. But these result in producing open liquidities. Price may want to sweep some of them. If price wants to take the liquidity, the first target will be $36,750s. Further price comments can be done according to LTF chart confirmation.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

We proposed one bullish and one bearish scenario two weeks ago. The bearish scenario was cancelled last week. In the bullish scenario, price can reach to AB=CD target, which is around $2,120. On the other hand, price is close to a previous swing point. The RSI is in the overbought region. In this case, we should be careful when the price over $2,100. A probable reversal can occur. However, this can just be a correction.

15min analysis

In the 1H chart, bearish RSI divergence is obvious. Care should be taken from now on. However, price can move somewhat higher although there is RSI divergence. The available fair value gaps are not much high to attract the price. Therefore, some more high levels can be possible in this time frame chart.

EURUSD

4H analysis

In the 4H analysis of the last week, we expected the price to reach the fair value gap zone. It really did the correction movement but just took two of the three liquidities. In the current case, RSI is close to oversold region. We can now wait for a new break of structure by passing the last higher high. Then, we may expect 1.075s to sweep open liquidity and close the fair value gap.

15 min analysis

Market structure is bearish on 15 min chart. There is not a clear sign of reversal so far. The yellow box can be considered as a bearish order block because price dropped by a momentum and the candles are relatively larger than the surrounding price bars. There is a confirmation due to the reaction of the price from that region. But price wants to retest the area. If it is able to break the block, then we may expect the price rise as with HTF analysis.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

1D analysis

We were mentioning some bearish formations. At the close boundary of Wolfe pattern, which was on the weekly chart, price of BTC is rising by forming a broadening wedge. Another signal is the bearish RSI divergence, which is shown by red lines. The closest target is the fair value gap, shoen below by red color, between $30-33k.

1H analysis

A new range is available on 1 H chart. It has been ten days that the price is within the last down leg, shown between fib 0 and 1. Price made a deviation at the highest boundary. The two important regions are fib 0.5 and fib 1 in the hourly chart.  The probable deviation at the lower boundary is considered as a critical decision point whether price will go up again or it will retest and go lower values. We should check with lower time frame confirmations.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

As the high time frame analysis, we had two different pathways last week. One was a bearish harmonic pattern, whereas the other one was bullish AB=CD. This week we have the HTF analysis for 4H chart. There is a bearish RSI divergence. We can be susceptible for a possible bearish movement. Most likely probable movement can be a 2-618 pattern. The reason is the close proximity of the current price to the last highest value seen on late November. After reaching that value and sweeping liquidity, a price path shown as the blue colours can be expected. The exact place of price reversal and entry point will depend on the first bearish wave length.

15min analysis

There were two different harmonic patterns exhibited different market conditions on 15 min chart. The first close target can be the liquidity shown in the chart. It is also a location close to fib 0.618 of the pattern. After reaching there, 2-618 commented of HTF chart can be formed. But we have to focus on the local target at first.

EURUSD

4H analysis

The HTF analysis of last week was on the daily chart. We had a target to fib 0.618 of the HTF price movement. The price reacted from the identified region. As with the daily analysis, a bearish divergence is available also on 4H chart. It seems now that the price lost its momentum. The fair value gap below can be the target. Within the gap value EMA 200 can hold the price.

15 min analysis

On 15 minute chart, an order bock was identified, where price moved down by strong bearish candles. On the last day of the market price visited again the order block and started its bearish movement again. Short positions can be kept until the below liquidity zone. Stop level should be above the liquidity above the bearish order block.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

1W analysis

We mentioned about a Wolfe pattern on the weekly for two weeks. The fifth touch of the waves manipulated the trends on the pattern and a retest was occurred. We will see if the price will want to continue its movement after retest, which will cancel Wolfe formation or this is just going to be a manipulation. If the price continues to higher levels, $42,000 will be the target due to weekly fair value gap. But we should consider the saturation of RSI. The target on bearish side is TP for Wolfe, which is $25,000 on long term. Short term charts should be considered for position entries. Higher time frame charts avail us to see the possible main price pathways.

4H analysis

We commented the price movement as a parallel channel previously. Now a clear ascending broadening wedge is available on the chart. This is a bearish formation. Another bearish sign is the bearish RSI divergence.  If the price drop occurs, then the target will FVG below shown with the box, which is around $33,000.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

Two possibilities are present on daily chart. We know that the structure turned to bullish. Somehow the price will go higher levels but the pattern is important. Short term charts are more decisive in this case. But HTF projections can highlight are major road. One is AB=CD formation, which has $2,120 target. If we consider current RSI level, this price can be reached. On the other hand a bat harmonic pattern is also possible. If it occurs, then the price can move down to $1,840 to the previous mitigated order block. By the second path, the blue zone around $1,890s can be filled. After all, price can increase to higher values. As there are two distinct paths, we have to decide according LTF charts.

1H analysis

Last week, we mentioned a shoulder-head-shoulder formation and TP was flipped on 4H. We had a $1,980 price target and it was reached within the week. There are several fair value gap zones and liquidity below that can attract the price of gold. Price did not avail good entry positions for trade entries last week on short term.

EURUSD

1D analysis

The premium zone target was reached this week. 1.086 was the critical price threshold, which is fib 0.5 of the last down leg. Now, there is a possibility to reach fib 0.618, which is located at 1.096. After reaching these values, reversal can occur, since the market structure evolved to bearish on early October. But we should have LTF confirmation since market structure can again break on bullish side. RSI on daily is in the overbought region.

1H analysis

LTF analysis of daily HTF is done for 1H chart. We were sure that price reached a saturation zone On 1H chart there is an obvious bearish RSI divergence. Price left some fair value gap zones around 1.075 pair price. The price is expected to fill the yellow box below by whether reaching fib 0.618 or directly dropping from the current price.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

1W analysis

Last week we mentioned about a Wolfe pattern on the daily chart. The fifth touch of the waves manipulated the trends on the pattern. Therefore, we aimed to look from a higher time frame view. There was an imbalance (daily) which was shown by the red rectangle. It was swept by the last move of this week. The body of the candle is within the box. The close of this week will be important to ensure whether this is a manipulation or continuation. RSI is obviously in over-bought region on the weekly chart. There are signs for possible reversal reason.

4H analysis

Looking at the 4H chart, we have to be cautious by the current signs. First, the price trapped within a narrow price span. Second, there is a sharp volume decrease. RSI is showing a decrease in the momentum. According to these negative signs, the RSI located below can be the closest target.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

After making the market structure break, price is still moving to our daily target, which was between $1,880-$1,900 zone. It is also close to fib 0.618 of the last leg. $1,910 corresponds to fib 0.5 level, which is a transition point from premium to discount.

4H analysis

A shoulder-head-shoulder formation has become obvious last week. The price reached to its take profit level. A bullish RSI divergence is present for 4H time frame. Price of gold can somehow move higher prices before it makes a new low which was shown 1D analysis.

EURUSD

1D analysis

High time frame analysis of this week is from a daily chart. On 4H, pair was making higher highs and higher lows. On the daily, they seem to make an ascending channel. The channel was manipulated to sweep some liquidity. On the other hand, we identified a fair value gap on 15 min last week. The pair price removed the FVG and ready to continue its bullish movement until 1.086s.

1H analysis

After making a break of structure last week, the price reached to the identified fir value gap. It is more visible on this time frame that price reacted well within the yellow FVG zone. The price movement is close to a Gartley harmonic pattern. Therefore, we may expect some more price reversal until 1.064 level. But this is not a perfect place for AB=CD of the pattern, if it will the target, then 1.063 can be reached. As this is a bullish pattern, price should continue to higher levels.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

1D analysis

Last week we told about a channel type movement of HTF of BTC price. A Wolfe pattern is possible with the current price movements. On the daily chart, there is also a negative RSI divergence. Also, there is a fair value gap below. These reasons attract the price to lower regions. If these reasons activate the Wolfe pattern, then we expect the price to reach $25,000.

1H analysis

There is a shallow rising parallel channel that resembles a range structure on 1H chart. After the strong bullish movement on October 24, price swept this liquidity last week. But the short positions were successful until the lower boundary of the channel. Price tried to cross equilibrium of the channel, however, it was unsuccessful twice. As the price is struck between the blue zone, price may want to sweep more liquidity to reach the FVG zone below.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

There was some up and down price movements for gold last week. But the price was at the same level at the end of the week. Nothing has changed on higher time frame perspective. More logical expectation can be the price to reach the balance price range between $1,880-$1,900 zone, and then continue its bullish movement by making all time high.

1H analysis

On 1H chart, price makes a range time price movement. Actually, we could not observe a definite price trend on 1D analysis. On LTF this type of movement can be considered as a range behaviour. Range high and range low lines can be validated through the reaction of the price from the equilibrium line. Actually, price was reacted several times from fib 0.5 of the range. As we expect bullish attitude from the price, the price can make a similar movement as the blue path. First, make a deviation, retest the range high line, and then keep bullish trend.

EURUSD

4H analysis

As with the analysis of the last week, price did not change its market structure. The structure is still bullish on 4H time frame and the pair price is increasing by forming clear higher highs and higher lows. The price sept the same liquidity second time, probably to use it as a fuel for bullish movement. The price from the start of October can also be treated as a channel move. 1.086 is the premium zone for a daily chart and pair price can reach there unless a change of character is observed.

15 min analysis

On 15 min chart, price made a break of structure, showing the continuity of the current market structure. Break of structure was formed by a strong candle that generated fair value gap. On the other hand, there is a bearish RSI divergence because RSI dropped with the increasing price. Price may want to fill the gap around FVG zone and touch MA200, then continue to its bullish movement until HTF analysis target.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

1D analysis

BTC moves within an ascending channel for one year. Total gain from the lowest point of the channel has passed 100%. RSI dips always worked as a buy signal whereas RSI over 70 was a sell signal. We observe that the second highest RSI was reached in this chart. Anyone with long positions should be careful from now on. A correction until EMA200 is possible.

1H analysis

After the strong move, BTC is moving within a range. The higher boundary was manipulated once now the price is close to the upper boundary again. A new manipulation is possible. If it is just a manipulation, then price can reach to range low. However, if the price stays above the range high, then higher prices can be reached. But HTF analysis warns us for a possible reversal. The most likely price movement can be as the arrows with red colour.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

Price of gold kept well the expectations by reaching the red zone around $2,000. This price movement made a market structure shift. Price is in the premium zone. We may expect a price drop until $1,880-1,900 zone, then price can go higher values.

15min analysis

Price recently exhibited a bullish movement on 15 min chart. If the triangle was uniform, we could also expect a bullish movement. But the triangle is not convincing. Fair value gap zones and liquidity is the short term target.

EURUSD

4H analysis

As the highest time frame, we had 1H analysis and were expecting the price to rise. Actually, it was realized and the price moved back to the same level. When we observe 4H chart, it is clear that this is a movement just to sweep liquidity. The highest price that reached corresponds to a fair value gap. Another factor is that price is leaving higher high and lower high swing points which are shown are orange circles on the chart. This is a bullish market structure on 4H chart. 1.086 is the premium zone for a daily chart and pair price can reach there unless a change of character is observed.

15 min analysis

On 15 min chart, another liquidity was obviously swept. Now, we observe downward candles that try to reach the fair value gap zone below, which is shown by red rectangle. EMA50 crosses EMA200 and ready on LTF for bullish movement. After filling FVG, price is expected to move higher pair prices.

**  Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.