Category: Overview

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

Although shallow movements were present on the BTC chart, a severe movement was present last week by a fake news. The price anyway kept is gradual upward movement after severe fall. $30,250 is of quite importance. A candle close over that value will make a change of character. Then, we may expect $27-28ks for a pullback. Further price movements can be up to $32-33ks. This is valid if CHoCH occurs. Unless, lower prices will be the target.

15 min analysis

As with the HTF analysis, $30,250 remains a critical zone. Several liquidities were left by previous price movements by wicks. Price can move to that targets to trigger stop loss of several short positions. EMA50 is moving close to EMA200 and RSI started to drop. This shows us that after an upward movement, a pullback will occur.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

Price of gold was over the blue zone, around $1,930s. The bearish candle was not strong enough to reach that zone. Price reached the liquidity and reached the fair value gap that is shown by red colour. We also observe a character change ın the daily chart. $1,880-1,900 zone can be a reversal zone and long setups can be formed for further price movements.

1H analysis

Price did not show any weakness in the hourly chart. EMA50 is over EMA200 and the difference is quite uniform. Additionally, there is no reversal on the market structure. The only negative appearance is the bearish RSI divergence. Upward momentum of the price is dropping as the price increases. A reversal movement can drive the price down to $1,900s.

EURUSD

1H analysis

The predefined fair value gap worked well and it was fully swept by the candles. EMA50 was lower than EMA200 for a long time. We realize a reversal of the trend in the current setup. A harmonic pattern is also formed. EMA200 of the hourly chart is in accordance with fib0.5 of the formation. We may keep to see a forward price move from 1.057s. On lower time frame, confirmation can be sought whether pullback will happen or not.

5 min analysis

On LTF chart, the obvious movement was occurred by attacking liquidity prices. Although sharp movements were observed, the price reversed by an equal acceleration on the opposite direction. Due to quick price movements, EMA200 held the same inclination. Some more liquidities are present in the current chart. Price seems to sweep the liquidities at lower prices and move to higher pair value, compatible to HTF chart.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

Previously, we have identified a Gartley pattern. The traditional target for leg-D is 0.786 of X-A. However, there are other forms that can cause a zone that is called potential reversal zone (PRZ). When we consider AB extension fib1.272, BC inversion fib1.414, and AB=CD, the generated PRZ is shown by red colour. The price reached the zone and reversed by one single touch from AB=CD level. In this case, we should not wait for fib0.786 level of X-A leg. Another thing is that, a death-cross is likely to occur on 4H time frame.

15 min analysis

In the LTF chart, BTC price exhibits an aggressive bullish movement. The price has to liquidities located at top and down. Current attitude is likely to sweep the liquidity at the top at first. After reaching $27,500s, we can think of possible reversals for HTF analysis. But in the current case, EMA50 is holding the price well on 15 min and there is not an exact sign for bearish movement.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

We realized last week that the identified OB held price well and the candle structures were appropriate for bullish movement on lower time frame. An imbalance zone was identified around $1890-1900s. The price reached there and went over the region by a strong candle. In the new form two opposite imbalance candles were formed. The new target is again $1,890-1,900s, then we may expect the price move higher levels. Although the price seems bullish, in daily the market structure has not shifted yet to bullish.

1H analysis

As to start with the market structure, we can observe a bullish market structure for the current time frame. EMA50 crossed EMA200, this also another indicator showing the shift of the structure. An imbalance zones for two opposite candles are available around $1,940s as with the 1D analysis, which is shown by yellow box. Also, a liquidity is present around $1,945. The price reached close to those levels but neither closed the imbalances nor swept liquidity. There are other imbalance zones available in cheaper prices for 1H chart that are shown by yellow rectangles below the current price. As with the HTF analysis, price can move to lower prices and then continue its bullish movement.

EURUSD

1D analysis

After making a CHoCH, both price and RSI gave initial signals for a possible reversal. It escalated to higher prices until the CHoCH level. There was a strong reversal there. Now, the most likely target is the premium zone, which is shown by a red rectangle. Fib 0.5 level of the last down leg, which made CHoCH, is 1.086. This level should be reached for considering possible short positions.

1H analysis

The first change of character was invalid. Price removed the fair value gap and continued to drop. Noe it seems that price made a bullish market structure break and made a break of structure. This is a sign for the bullish continuation. The most likely movement of the price can be towards the fair value gap below, which is between 1.052 and 1.0535 pair price. Bearish RSI divergence is also obvious and can support this movement. After sweeping the FVG, pair price can increase.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

Over the last three weeks, Gartley pattern is forming on BTC chart. Price moved close to D day by day by rather shallow movements. Although, market structure is not bullish yet, I expect a correction from D point to fib 0.382 of C-D leg. Approximately MA200 will cross the same price. Then, correction price can be $27,500s. After that, price can keep its upward move and a MSB to bullish can be formed.

15 min analysis

There is not a clear direction on LTF chart. The price is within the drawn range. Price lays near the equilibrium of the range. FVG was swept and there are two open liquidities which are at both sell-side and buy-side. Their distance from range-high and range-low region is nearly the same. Although $29,000 is the nearest target for 4H chart, it is best to wait for a clear movement on LTF to enter a position.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

The daily market structure of gold shifted to bearish on mid-May. Since then, price dropped regularly. Now the price reached a place where an order block is present. As we consider the candle reactions and current state of RSI, potential reversal is possible at least until $1,900, where fair value gap is present.

15 min analysis

A bullish change of character is present on 15 min chart. This is within the order block of daily chart. Additional indicator is that MA50 crossed over MA200 on bullish side. The LTF structure shift can support our HTF analysis expectation. $1,828 can be a good price for long position setups.

EURUSD

1D analysis

After making a CHoCH, both price and RSI gave initial signals for a possible reversal. The range is updated and new fib 0.5 level is 1.086. This is the price which differentiates premium and discount zones. This level should be reached for a swing short position. LTF entries can be done for a bullish entry.

1H analysis

The first change of character was invalid. Price removed the fair value gap and continued to drop. Now it seems that price made a bullish market structure break and made a break of structure. This is a sign for the bullish continuation. The most likely movement of the price can be towards the fair value gap below, which is between 1.052 and 1.0535 pair price. Bearish RSI divergence is also obvious and can support this movement. After sweeping the FVG, pair price can increase.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

BTC chart expectation has not changed for the last two weeks.  Price moved a bit higher to the D point of possible Gartley pattern. Additional change of the week is the cross of EMA50 over MA200. This fact is important for the price to move to higher prices but not an exact indicator alone. The possible target is $29,000. Then, we may expect a price reversal. In our previous HTF charts, $21,000s was our long term target.

15 min analysis

On 15min chart, BTC can exhibit a quite complicated movement. There are several liquidity and fvg zones. These two factors are the most important factors that drive the price of BTC. The price may want the reach the nearest POIs and then move the further POIs in internal structure. After that, HFT POıs can be the active targets.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

We pointed out the possible formation of bullish butterfly pattern and the target was fib 1.27 level of x-a leg. Also, there was the weekly imbalance around the same price. Therefore, it was likely for the price to reach that level. Price hit the level and went further, it is close to 1.618 level of the bullish butterfly pattern. By also taking into account the daily rsi, the price is likely to reverse from current prices. The possible target for the price is shown by a red rectangle. The range is between $1,883 and $1,916

15min analysis

Before the last down movement, gold swept liquidity as it did usually. The structure is still bearish in LTF. According to HTF analysis, current price zone seems to be the probable lowest prices for LTF. Price can hit two POIs above, which are FVG and unmitigated supply zone. The upper level of the supply zone is also the fib 0.382 of HTF harmonic pattern.

EURUSD

1D analysis

The expectation of our last week analysis was to continue of the price on daily chart. It well obeyed the expectations and moved lower pair values. We emphasized that CHoCH was unclear last week but there is an exact change of character at the moment. Another factor is that EMA50 crossed EMA200 downwards. This is also another indicator of market structure shift to bearish conditions. RSI level shows that price can reverse rom current level. The region between fib 0.5 and 1.0 is the premium for the price and can be used for a possible short position. Exact fib 0.5 level is 1.088.

15min analysis

There is a change of character on 15 min chart. The structure is bullish. Price is continuing its move by making break of structure. The last bullish order block was tested twice and the fvg zone above it was completely filled. EMA200 is holding the price. It is expected that the pair price can move higher pair prices in order to reach HTF target.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

Much not changed for BTC since last week. Price moved a bit higher to the D point of possible Gartley pattern. We can also observe a possible upward price movement if EMA50 crosses over MA200. Currently, price is so close to make this movement. In this case $29,000 will be a possible target. Then, we may expect a price reversal. In our previous HTF charts, $21,000s was our long term target.

XAUUSD

1D analysis

After the formation of bullish bat pattern, price reversed from premium zone of the harmonic formation. The price reversed to around fib 0.786 level of the price. Then, we can observe a pullback until fib 0.886 level. Now the price seems to reverse from that level. This looks like a bullish butterfly pattern. If the formation is realized , then we may expect a price move down to $1,870s. This will also help to sweep the left weekly imbalance in that zone. But you should keep in mind that this is now just a possibility.

4H analysis

Gold price reactions occur according to sweeping open liquidities. Observing the one-month long chart on 4H it is clear that the levels were swept by price movement, which is shown by red colour. A new liquidity is available around $1,900. There is a fair value gap over the current price between $1,930-$1,940. The probable price movement can be first moving into FVG zone than a move until $1,900s. Short time frame price entry always have to be ensured for an actual position.

EURUSD

1D analysis

AB=CD formation occurred ono daily chart and price reversed. EMA 200 level, somehow, helped the price to react. But its momentum was not enough. EMA 50 acted as a barrier and pair price continued its drop. An important liquidity level was swept. We are now at a critical point. Here, we will see if a change of character will be formed or not. If it breaks the level below, then we can expect a price path as shown by the blue color. Moving averages also seem to exhibit a possible price reversal.

4H analysis

Pair price is in a downtrend until mid-July. It had several attempts to crossover EMA200 but those were unsuccessful. EMA50 is pushing the price down and a place that could make a change of character is shown by a red horizontal line. Although bearish character is present on 4H chart, lower prices can show a more reasonable character change on HTF. The most remarkable price movement can be sweeping the FVG between 1.067 and 1.070, then move to lower prices.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

We have expressed our expectations on range formations so far. On weekly, there is a harmonic formation that was shown previously with a target of around $21,000s. In the current time frame, we can talk about a possibility of bearish Gartley formation. If this occurs, price will sweep to liquidities above and fully close previous bpr on weekly. While mentioning this, we should make confirmations on LTF since HTF expectation is bearish.

15 min analysis

The range formation of biweekly period was broken towards bullish side after making two different deviations. After moving out of the range, the price reacted around fib 0.5 level of the range. A buy-side liquidity was swept that can make us suspicious of the price to go lower levels. But somehow the price held between a new narrow range. During the weekend, the price is around equilibrium of the new range zone. But sure, there will soon be a massive movement. We should observe what will happen from the chart on LTF before taking decisions. In short, expectation is bullish on LTF, bearish on HTF.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

We expected the price of gold to sweep the predefined liquidity levels last week. Actually, the price swept the identified two liquidities. The price gained enough momentum to go higher values. There is not a change of character currently. Our expectation in 4H chart is to make a pull-back to FVG zones situated blow and carry the price to further levels. In this case, the market character will also change and we can analysis further levels.

15 min analysis

Price seems to make a down trend, consolidate for some time, and break out and make a reverse trend on 15 min chart. The price made deviation during the time spent within the range structure. The range was broken on bullish side and the price made a break of structure to continue its movement. There is a fair value gap in 15 min that can attract the price between $1,921 and $1,919. After reaching that value, the price is expected to make a new break of structure and keep its attitude unless there is a different change of character.

EURUSD

4H analysis

We expected the price to sweep the liquidity around 1.064. This was the actual move that the price did. Because there was only a 0.6% price difference to reach the liquidity. It was important to transfer the momentum by triggering stop-levels of some positions. Now the possible target is the yellow box around 1.082 which was also mentioned last week.

15 min analysis

Before the price dropped to sweep the liquidity, a fair value gap was left behind. Recently, positive RSI divergence was formed on the chart. On HTF, we expect higher prices. Due to these factors, we are looking forward to the movement of the price to premium areas identified on HTF.

Before and after

BTCUSD

XAUUSD

EURUSD

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

Expectations of last week was shown by two different red paths. The first path was reached but price reversed to its starting point. The price recent swept liquidity that was shown by the red horizontal line. There is still possibility for the price to make an approximately 3-9% profit. But on HTF lower prices are the main target.

15 min analysis

The price is in a range for about two days. A deviation occurred recently, which triggered some stop-loss orders. Now the price has some liquidity to move over the range value. 4H targets around $26,500 and $28,500 can be reached on short term.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

The LTF of last week provided a successful short entry last week. Our expectation was to reach FVG shown on the chart from the premium zone since there was a bearish market structure break on 15 min. Now we have a discount zone for the last leg between $1,910s and $1,890s.The possible target is there and there are two liquidities which can be swept. Reverse of the price depends on the behaviour of the price after liquidity sweeping.

15 min analysis

Price seems to make a range movement for some time on 15 min chart. Liquidity was taken from top of the box. The price is now close to the lower boundary of the range. The price can make a deviation from the lower edge of the range. In this case, price can go down to fib 1.27 level. It definitely intersects with the discount zone of 4H chart. Also one of the liquidities will be swept. Therefore, the price is more likely to move towards lower values. Reversal of the price should be confirmed by LTF market structure break.

EURUSD

4H analysis

In the hourly analysis USDEUR pair we mentioned a possible zone at 1.0808 where can price reach. The target was hit by a wick and continued its bearish structure. 4H chart is available this week due to the fact that it shows the current state of the price better. Now the possible target is the yellow box around 1.082. There is also positive RSI divergence on 4H, which is a sign for possible structure reversal. We should also consider the liquidity level below which is yet close the price. A 0.6% drop in the price will be enough to sweep the liquidity. My idea on 4H is shown by the red path.

15 min analysis

Bearish market structure reversed and it seems like that there is a MSB on 15 min. But when we shift to 1H chart, we can realise that it just swept liquidity of a previous wick. In this case we should observe what will happen around the horizontal red line. It can also a MSB on 15 min chart. If this occurs, then we may still expect the liquidity which was already commented on 4H chart and previous movement is an inducement due to liquidity sweeping on HTF.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

The price path drawn last week worked well and shown on the chart by blue colour. Actually, price is within a range but made a quick manipulation including FVGs on two different directions. The first expectation shall be to balance these two FVGs by forwarding the price there. N the other hand, there are two open liquidities at higher prices. The sweeping of these two liquidities will also balance the price range shown on the left for HTF.

Daily outlook is given below. This chart is shared below 4H although it is a daily chart because this expectation is on a longer period.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

Bullish alternate bat formation was present on 4H. Expectation of possible price movement was as shown with the red arrow on the chart. Price reached TP2 of the formation. Now, formation was reached its ultimate target. The price is within a premium zone for 4H timeframe.  There is additional daily premium zone which is shown by a yellow box on the left. Either zones were flipped. Current place of the price is critical because there is not a definite direction of the price. We have to look for possible confirmations on LTF.

15 min analysis

As there is not a clear direction of 4H, we may look for possible LTF entries on 15 min chart. Price made a change of character on 15 min chart. But this movement is just a wick on HTFs. Therefore, it is best to be cautious in entering positions. Another good point is that breaker block worked well and price reversed from that zone. But still can try to reach the same zone. If the price cannot pass through breaker block, then the target will be the imbalance which is shown by yellow box below.

EURUSD

1D analysis

There was a butterfly formation on daily chart. Price reached TP2 region and continued beyond it. Also, market structure reversed on daily. The price is bearish and there is a liquidity at point A of the harmonic formation. It is likely that price wants to reach that location. But in a LTF view a little retracement can occur, which is shown in 1H analysis.

1H analysis

The price expectation of last was shown by red path and left on the chart. The price obeyed the path that was shown on 4H chart. However, liquidity still exists at around 1.063. A clear Quasimodo pattern occurred on the chart and reached its target. Before reaching the target, imbalance was left through the price movement. We may expect a rise up to the region shown as FVG, which may leave a 0.5% gain. After reaching the target, we have to look at the state of the price since there is still liquidity below.

**  Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

Last week, a probable bearish shark pattern formation was present and RSI was way too low to make a further lower price. Although the price is at the same level, RSI is in equilibrium now at 4H chart. But still in over-sod region for 1D chart. Since no significant price movement occurred last week, I have the same expectations and leave the chart below for possible price movements. Two different price comments are available this time as charts. The above yellow area is a point of interest for the price. But EMA50 held strong the price of BTC. We may still look bearish unless there is a strong upward price movement.

EURUSD

4H analysis

Although the daily market structure is bullish, the price of the pair swept almost all liquidity levels except swing low point. If the price reaches there, the candle should be examined carefully whether it is a liquidity sweeping or a candle close, which makes a change of character of the market. EMA50 is exhibiting an important resistance. The last liquidity level was not satisfactory to move the price upwards. Pair price 1.063 is important in current time frame.

15 min analysis

Price made a bullish change of character on 15 minutes chart. Then, reversed by a sharp candle move. Price reversed from exactly the same previous swing low price. Therefore, there is a double bottom. Although, we may think that the 15 minutes structure is bullish, there is still possibility on HTF to reach lower prices. Long entries should be done by extra confirmations.

After forming the bullish shark pattern, price reached TP region and reversed from that level. After analysing the price structure, bearish structure is obvious. Current expectation is to reach 1.083 and possibly reverse from that price.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

Price of gold swept most of FVG, available on weekly chart. A change of character was observed on 15 minutes chart and price turned to bullish. EMA50 was tested once and price reversed there, where it gave opportunity to long the pair. An extreme price movement was present on the last second candle. It removed FVG and price is free to keep its bullish structure. Take profit 1 point was flipped. The  next target is TP2 region, which is approximately $1,940.

15 min analysis

FVG on 4H chart was swept and there is no more interest for to pair to go lower levels. After sweeping FVG, RSI reached the lower band. Then the price reversed and it went beyond EMA50 level. There are two important levels that attract the price. First, there is liquidity pool around $1,923. Second, there is $1,940 level for the harmonic pattern TP2.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

1D analysis

I have mentioned a possible bullish shark pattern two weeks ago. But also warned that it was just an imagination at the time of the analysis. Now, the formation started to form. D point should be fib 0.886-1.13 of X-A. In this case, the red box will be the target for the formation to be generated. We can observe some imbalance zones beyond X-A fib1.0 level. If price want to take the liquidity which corresponds to X price, then it would probably fill the imbalances underneath. In the current price level, we can observe a yellow box. It encapsulates one bullish and one bearish candle, which generated FVGs. By taking into account both the yellow box and the current state on RSI, first, we may expect a rise in the price until $28,000s. Then, we may expect lower prices.

4H analysis

We were mentioning a possible descend in the price pf BTCUSDT for several weeks. But price could keep the same level although volume was quite low compared to previous weeks. At the end, price dropped sharply and took the liquidity around $24,800s. The red path was from last week, the blue one is the recent path depicting the expectation for this week. Price will want to fix bpr, which means a limited price rise is expected. But, one deeper price crush is possible. When we look at the market structure, we can observe that it turned to bearish on 4H timeframe previously. We can observe a bullish break of structure by the red horizontal line. The swing low point this is depicted by blue horizontal line is the change of character level. Price remained almost the same for one month although the structure was bearish.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

Price of gold is moving to lower levels and closing the weekly imbalance. Last week we expected a bullish bat pattern. There was an order block, which took liquidity. Actually, the orders filled at that level was not enough to carry the price to higher levels. The formation turned to a probable bullish alternate bat formation. In an ideal formation, fib 1.13 of X-A leg is the location of D point. In an ideal formation, price can reverse from $1,880. But the price is also closing weekly imbalance. If $1,870 is reached, then the imbalance will be repaired. For that reason, $1,870-1,880 is important for a long entry. TP1 and TP2 are $1,912 and $1,932, respectively for ideal bullish alternate bat.

15 min analysis

Every black horizontal line on the chart is a break of structure and keeping the movement in the same direction. As in 4H analysis, somehow lower prices can be reached within the yellow box. We have to see a change of character as shown in the figure to enter a long position.

EURUSD

4H analysis

The daily market structure bullish. Several bearish formations occurred within 4H time frame.  Pair price moved to lower levels after sell side liquidities were taken. A buy-side liquidity was taken at around 1.091. It was not enough to reverse the price. There is one more liquidity at 1.083. This is a critical and expected level. According to price action after the reach to the location, we may take position. If the momentum is enough to make a change of character, we may take a long position from a proper order block.

15 min analysis

After forming the bullish shark pattern, price reached TP region and reversed from that level. After analysing the price structure, bearish structure is obvious. Current expectation is to reach 1.083 and possibly reverse from that price.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.