Category: Overview

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

After many weeks, we are still suffering from the shallow market in BTCUSDT pair. Also the volume of the pair reduced drastically. The path shown by red colour was from last week’s bulletin. The price reached $30,400s. But this is not to fulfil a Quasimodo pattern that is shown by the blue path. If the pattern is formed accurately, we may expect the below closest FVG at first. I aim to wait for a significant movement before making predictions in other time frames as with the last two weeks.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

Price of XAU perfectly fit to our estimation. There was a liquidity shown last week. We stated that if liquidity is taken, price could form a bullish bat pattern. Actually, price took the liquidity and formed the harmonic pattern. Now we can expect TP1 and TP2 points to be reached. But before reaching TP2, we have to be careful at around the red box shown in the figure, which is an order block. Price can somehow cannot pass that zone. The ultimate target on 4H is $1,954 for this pattern.

15 min analysis

Change of character was formed on 15-min chart. After that, order block was filled several times within this time frame. Additionally, this order block is in harmony with the previous liquidity level. The price did not increase much from the order block and there is good opportunity to take long position. The targets on 4H time frame is valid.

EURUSD

4H analysis

We mentioned about two different regions last week for a possible short position on 4H time frame, although the market structure is still bullish on daily chart. The price reached the first short position zone, which is shown as 2618 entry zone. Now, there are two liquidity targets below that price can reach and shown as $ symbols. The targets are 1.091 and 1.083, respectively.

15 min analysis

The structure is bearish on 15 min and there is an imperfect shoulder-head-shoulder formation. According to expectation of this formation, we may expect the pair price to reach at least the first liquidity level.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

After making a movement towards lower prices from $31,600s, price of BTC formed a range and moved within it. Then, it was broken down and new range was generated at a lower price. The range was manipulated at both sides. There is still possibility for a possible Quasimodo pattern since there are open liquidities at higher prices and there is a fair value gap. On the other hand, market structure shifted to bearish on 4H. Bullish price movements will be for short entries for me by confirming on lower time frame.

XAUUSD

4H analysis

Price movement obeyed well to our expectation. Price closed almost entire FVG candle occurred on 27^th July and reversed to keep bearish movement. The price reversed from sell side order block. Price made a new break of structure towards the bearish attitude. Now we can identify a new bearish order block to make a new entry. VAH level of constant volume profile of the last leg down overlap in the same region. We have to confirm the movement in lower time frame. The possible will be the liquidity level at the shown swing low by a black horizontal line. It is also the D point of a bullish bat pattern that is not shown on the chart.

15 min analysis

The price was within a range for nearly two days with a shallow price difference of about $6. On Friday, price made a manipulation on both sides of the range, just with a single candle on 15 min. then, price filled the FVG that was from the last bearish movement. The bearish order block, shown by red box, seems a favourable place for short entry on 15-min chart. RSI will also possibly reach over-bought region.

EURUSD

4H analysis

The market structure is still bullish on daily chart. The first target below can be the swing low that is shown by horizontal black line. In order to make this movement the pair should hunt the liquidities above. There are four candle wicks that moves lower than each other. The price of the pair should go above the highest of the wicks. After passing this level price could form a 2-618 formation. Also, the price can want to go higher prices and reach the bearish order clock that is shown by a red box. Short positions can be taken from that levels by lower time frame confirmations.

15 min analysis

There is a change of character on 15 min chart. Now the price in current time frame is bullish, price can reach to 4H bearish order block. But price left fair value gap before making a CHoCH. In this case, price of the pair can somehow drop and then reach Be-OB above and then continue bearish on 4H to reach the liquidity level around 1.085.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

Weekly analysis

Over the last one year several harmonic patterns were formed on weekly BTCUSDT chart. Now, there is a potential bullish shark pattern on the pair. But to be honest this is just an imagination for now. Harmonic patterns are to be used after the reach of the price to the D point. D point can be between fib 0.886 and 1.13 of X-A leg. The area is shown by a red rectangle. On the other hand here is an IOFED zone between $19,550 and $18,400s. For me, that area is the extreme lowest price of BTC that can be reached. It is also obvious that there is low trading volume in the market since late March.

4H analysis

The trading range was broken down at the beginning of the week. The price tried to gain the range again once. But it was not possible to gain it again. Price $30,400s is still an important zone to start a downward movement. On the other hand, there is a potential Quasimodo pattern, which is shown by blue colour. If the price reaches $31,200s, then we may expect $28,000s in mid-term.

XAUUSD

Daily analysis

The price was within the daily premium zone last week and our expectation was a bearish movement since the price could not break the last lower high peak. The price of gold dropped sharply by a strong bearish candle. The candle left FVG on LTF. The price took liquidity of the pair at the top of the daily premium zone. Potentially stop losses of traders who shorted at previous LH were triggered.

4H analysis

MA200 on 4H time frame exhibited a strong support and the price movement with a significant FVG couldn’t pass through that level. Usually, fib 0.5 level of a FVG is an important point for the price to make a potential reversal price movement. Now, the price is within MA200-20 levels and reached fib 0.5 region. The expectation is to make a lower low from the current price.

EURUSD

1D analysis

The market structure is still bullish on daily chart. However, the price reached an important zone. The zone is TP2 level of the harmonic pattern on weekly chart and a premium zone. The pair should go down below 1.0635 and close candle to consider a change of character in the market. EURUSD is considered bullish on daily unless there is a candle close below the horizontal black line.

1H analysis

The market structure of EURUSD is bearish on 1H time frame. There was a reversal price movement between 26 and 28^th of July. The movement took the liquidity and price continued to down downwards with strong acceleration. 1.107 price of the pair is a potential 2618 zone, which is fib 0.618 level between the liquidity zone and the last swing low.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

4H analysis

The consolidation zone is evaluated by volume profile this week. The two extreme line are shown by blue colour which are called VAH and VAL. VAH level at top also corresponds to and important area on 15-min chart. Last week, we expected the price to reach there and considered as a possible reversal zone. 4H chart of this week points out the importance of that level. The highest exchange volume occurred over the red line. This level also exhibited as a resistance. The price tried to move upward of the red line but it was declined twice. Another factor is the volume decrease of the pair. Our expectation is still the same. $30,750 is critical and there are several open FVGs below.

15-min analysis

On the lower time frame, there is a new range as shown on the chart below. The range is between $30,400 and $29,600. The price started to move lower ranges on LTF. We may expect a deviation to 15-min POI around $30,750, which also corresponds to VAH on 4H time frame. This level may be a local high, then price can move to lower levels.

XAUUSD

Daily analysis

On the daily chart, price of gold moved sideways within the premium zone. The price was unable to break the upper level of the premium zone. Therefore, the price could not make a market structure shift to bullish. On the current time frame, we may still expect lower prices until there is a clear break of structure.

4H analysis

Current price is the place where highest exchange volume was occurred. One can expect that this level can hold the price. There was a little reaction from the red line in the middle. But the reaction rate is not sufficient. There is MA200 curve around $1,940. It can be the next target for the price of gold.

EURUSD

4H analysis

After reaching the TP2 level or the harmonic pattern on weekly analysis that was shown in previous weeks, we emphasized the importance of the premium zone that the price is reached. The expectation was reversal of the pair and it worked well. The loss of momentum of RSI was also an excellent indicator for us when the price was moving sideways. Now a local dip formation is observed.

15 min analysis

After the shift of character, mitigation block worked properly and pushed the pair to lower levels. The price has some fair value gaps, there is a positive RSI divergence, and MA100, 50, 20 crossed each other. We may expect some higher pair prices but still expect lower after some correction.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

1D and 4H analysis

Actually, there is nothing new with the HTF analysis compared to last two weeks. The blue path was drawn last week and we did not delete it. It is clear that the price obeyed the expectation. New liquidity was taken on daily around $31,580. The drop of the price left and imbalance. Price of BTC can reach fib 0.5 level of the imbalance and continue its further decline to lower imbalance zones. But also remember the BTC bull season. During the increase of the price, BTC left many imbalances but they were filled many months later. It is best to take short-term decisions for now due to range price movement.

15-min analysis

On the lower time frame, the bearish OB can be a reasonable place for short entry. Its top price also corresponds to approximately fib 0.5 of HTF imbalance zone. $30,600-30,800s should be watched carefully for possible short positions.

XAUUSD

Daily analysis

On the daily chart, price of gold started to move towards the daily premium zone over the last two weeks. Now the price reached a quite well zone according to the previous expectations. In such zones, we have to decide according to the action of price. The last candle takes the liquidity of the previous one so we can expect a pull back. But we need an extra confirmation on the lower time frame for a possible short entry.

4H analysis

The price started to act after filling the in 4H bullish OB last week. MA200 was broken by a strong candle, which left liquidity void. On the other hand, price couldn’t move higher than $1,964. The price is within a consolidation zone and RSI started to lose its momentum. This shows us the possible decline of the price. MA200 is just the base of the imbalance on 4H time frame. Therefore, the first target could be MA200 curve. However, all long/short position entries should be done according to LTF confirmations.

EURUSD

Weekly analysis

On the weekly chart, a clear bullish crab pattern was identified previously. We mention the importance of TP2, which is also the start of the premium zone on weekly chart. The price tried but couldn’t reach TP2 for a long time until this week. Now, the price remains in an important zone. This is where we are going to decide on LTFs for possible short positions.

4H analysis

The order block reached three times well and enough orders were filled to carry the pair to higher prices. The price of the pair reached a premium zone on HTF. The pair is within a consolidation and RSI is losing its momentum. These shows a possible price reversal of the pair.

15 min analysis

On 15-min chart two important high and low swing points are shown. After closing candle under the last swing low, the structure of the pair changed its character. Now we can search for short entries. Another fact it that, the price couldn’t close candle over swing high line. Just the liquidity of this level was taken. The imbalance zone around 1.11 can be a possible target.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

1D and 4H analysis

There is not a significant change in the HTF expectations since the price is moving within a range. We have just left 4H analysis below. The price has possibility to move up $32,000-$34,000 levels according to daily formation. If this occurs then, we may target below imbalance levels. But this does not mean that all imbalance levels will be filled at once. Remember the BTC bull season. During the increase of the price, BTC left many imbalances but they were filled many months later. It is best to take short-term decisions for now due to range price movement.

15-min analysis

The actual range is between $29,500 and $31,000. There is a sharp volume decrease possible due to weekend. There is a new micro-range for the last two days between $30,050 and $30,500. It is really hard to catch evert single movement since the two mentioned values are extremes of the range. The price is actually in a narrower price span. If any long or short position is filled from the current price, one should observe the expansion candle and then retracement possible to the EQ region of the current range. But it is best to take the position after the possible expansion.

XAUUSD

Daily analysis

The daily chart shows an agreement with our expectation of last week. However, the movement of the candles is not significant. The weekly close was $1,919 last week but there is a slight increase and the close of this week is $1,925. The daily premium area still is the first target to be reached. We should keep in mind that this is just a retracement movement. When the price reaches to the premium zone, we must watch the momentum of the price to decide if it is going to make a market structure break or not. Then we can think whether this is a retracement or not. LTF charts below show a bullish MSB. In any case price will somehow increase according to our predictions. However, continuation is a next issue to be cleared.

4H analysis

The emphasized bearish bat pattern worked well last week and the price made a correction. TP2 was reached and further drop was also available. The orders in 4H bullish OB was filled during this correction. After filling the remaining orders, the price started again to its bullish movement. However, MA100 still exhibits a resistance for the price of gold. The candle body always closed under MA100 curve. After the break of the curve, the target will be the area above ($1,932-$1,943), which was shown on the daily chart.

EURUSD

4H analysis

The Quasimodo pattern exhibited well last week and price dropped from breaker block to the imbalance level that are shown in the chart. As there was a descending triangle formation last week in 15-min chart, this drop was satisfactory enough for the price decrease. In the 4H time frame the price of the pair reached the swing high level, RSI is close to over-bought region, and the last bullish candle left and imbalance region. All these signs are possible indicators of retracement of the price. Two options are available that are shown this red and blue paths.

15 min analysis

The price made a market structure break within this time frame. We can observe two different bullish scenarios in 15-min chart. In the first one, price can retrace to possible entry zones mention as green boxes on the chart as order block, breaker block, and optimal trade entry. Also there is an imbalance zone in a closer distance. The second possibility is that the price is exhibiting a bullish flag. The reason is the shallow decrease of the price and also a significant momentum decrease on RSI. An instant decision should be taken to take the position. If a significant volume increase is encountered and the RSI is around EQ region, then the price can be considered as the local lowest in 15-min chart and one can consider a long position.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

1D analysis

The possible price pattern was mentioned as either a broadening wedge or shoulder-head-shoulder formation last week. There were severe price movements last week. But when we observe it from daily chart, it is just a sideways price movement. These movements are shown by blue arrows in the current time frame. The expectation is still valid for the daily chart.

4H analysis

The price reached a previous swing high level last week and removed the SH liquidity. We can now observe a range for the last ten days. Last week the imbalance spans were provided as yellow boxes. They are still valid and left on the chart. The price dropped to the top of the closest imbalance level and reacted from there. The momentum decline is also another supporting indicator that the price can move to lower levels. The expectation is still valid and the movement can be to lower values as shown on the chart.

XAUUSD

Daily analysis

In our previous analysis, we had mentioned the importance of the weekly imbalance level shown on the daily chart. In this week’s chart we can clearly observe that most of the imbalance is repaired. Now price seems to start a retracement movement currently. When the price reaches to the premium zone, we must watch the momentum of the price to decide if it is going to make a market structure break or not. Then we can think whether this is a retracement or not. LTF charts below show a bullish MSB. In any case price will somehow increase according to our predictions. However, continuation is a next issue to be cleared.

4H analysis

Market structure of gold was bearish for several times. EMA100 was exhibiting a strong resistance. After entering HFT discount zone, price made a MSB in this time frame. Now it seems that there is a possible bearish bat harmonic pattern formation. But it can also extend to bearish alt bat. In the case that one of these patterns occurs, then we may expect the price to reach $1,932-$1,943.

15 min analysis

As of short term analysis for a probable entry, $1,900-$1,909 price span is the discount zone for the 15 min wave which resulted in a market structure break in 15 min. This price gap is in line with 4H bullish order block, which is between $1,900-$1,907.

EURUSD

4H analysis

Last week, we had an analysis for 4H time frame as HTF. Because there was a clear sign for a possible entry. In order to not confuse, we did not share any higher time frame entries or comments. The possible Quasimodo pattern realized with a perfect entry. Now the price visited back the breaker block. The pair also made BoS with a small amount. That’s why it is not shown on the chart. The pair value still has tendency to visit lower prices.

15 min analysis

The price closed an imbalance gap in LTF. According to RSI, the price is losing momentum. On the other hand, a descending triangle is formed. The two possible price patterns are shown as blue arrows. It can either break the triangle from upper side and move to lower prices or it can directly move to lower prices.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

Daily analysis

The chart for BTCUSDT shifted to bullish several times ago. The current chart exhibits two different bearish formations. First there is broadening wedge. Second, price flow occurs and it seems that there is a possibility for the third move. RSI is in the overbought zone. In the possibility that price cannot reach the upper boundary of the broadening wedge, shoulder-head-shoulder formation will occur.

4H analysis

The price reached a previous swing high level. Candle closed over that level on 4H time frame but couldn’t hold that level. On the other hand, this is just a wick on daily chart, which means, liquidity was taken at that level. Several imbalances were formed below the current price that are shown on the chart as yellow boxes. Also the drop of RSI shows us a momentum decline. We may expect a price drop as shown on the chart.

XAUUSD

Weekly analysis

As of a weekly analysis, we have mentioned the importance of the weekly imbalance several times. RSI was giving the alert of an over-bought zone. That’s why we expected the price to move lower and close the imbalance full or partially. The price swept some part of the imbalance and we reduced the imbalance zone accordingly. On the other hand, price reached the discount zone of the impulsive movement.

Daily analysis

After the shift of market structure to bearish, EMA100 exhibited a strong resistance several times. All price reactions after the drop reacted from the same line. At first, price should close EMA100 and then make a MSB to convince us that it is a shift to bullish market structure. $1,970 is important to make this difference on 4H time frame. In the current state, all upward price movements can be considered as an opportunity for taking short positions.

 

EURUSD

4H analysis

In the early June, EURUSD pair turned to bullish on 4H time frame. This week the price made a bearish market structure break. First, it filled a previous imbalance and now new imbalance occurred. Now, there is a possibility that price can close the new imbalance and generate a Quasimodo pattern. In this case, breaker block can be a zone for short entry.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

Daily analysis

The market structure remains bearish as the previous weeks. The price tested the daily premium zone just with a wick. LL level was slightly broken with a candle but it is not apparent on the daily chart. As we had sharp downward price movements this week, it is not easily detected on daily. A positive shift was available over the last four days. However, this is not enough to make a MSB on the current time frame. Volume is not sufficient and the price is now close to MA50, which acted as both support and resistance on the last four weeks. $27,000 is a critical price for a possible reversal. $24,000 and $22,500 is still an important imbalance zone.

4H analysis

The price made a MSB on 4H. The leg that made the structure change formed from a regular Elliot wave, which had the highest movement on the 3^rd leg. Possible price reversal can be $25,600-$26,000 price range which are the levels of MA50 and 4H discount zone, respectively. After that level, we can decide if the price wants to move upwards or it needs lower levels as in HTF.

XAUUSD

Daily analysis

On the previous week, the price bounced from the top of the imbalance level and the area is now reduced. The market structure is still bearish on daily since no candle was closed over the LH level. In this case, 4H premium zone may be visited after reaching a lower price. On the other hand, the market structure will remain bullish as long as the price is above $1,800. It has been two weeks that MA100 exhibiting a strong support line. We could only observe some wicks under MA100. This level is another factor that shows us the probable price movement direction.

Hourly analysis

1H market structure was bearish on 1H. However, it shifted to bullish after closing candle over the blue horizontal line.  Price left a severe imbalance zone and price held over MA100. The possible entry can be done from the optimal trade entry area which is between Fibonacci 0.618-0.705 levels of the last bullish price movement.

EURUSD

4H analysis

The bearish butterfly harmonic pattern which was drawn last week before its full occurrence reached its target now we have a possible price reversal from this level to TP-1 or TP-2. Current price is in the premium zone of 4H time frame. RSI also gives a signal of possible drop of pair price. TP-1 is also the same level for MA100 intersection on 1H time frame.

Hourly analysis

After shifting to bullish market structure, the price created a favourable order flow over MA100. This satisfied the expectation of the last week. This level reacted well several times, which shows the intention of the pair to be carried to further high levels. As price holds over MA100 curve, we may expect to react TP2 zone. However, RSI shows a reduction in possible bullish movement. The price may visit MA100 again and we may decide whether the trend will continue or shift the LTF trend to bearish. If the price reacts from MA100, then we may expect a price movement which is shown by red arrows.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.

BTCUSDT

Daily analysis

The market structure remains bearish as the previous weeks. The price tested the daily premium zone just with a wick. LL level was slightly broken with a candle but it is not apparent on the daily chart. As we had sharp downward price movements this week, it is not easily detected on daily. Lower time frames can depict better short term movements. On the daily chart $22,500 is the place to be filled to ensure the closure of imbalance. Also, discrete liquidity heat maps show liquidation areas around $22,000 level.

4H analysis

The price was between LH and LL levels from May 10^th, which exhibited a price range. We now have a new LL with the last candle close lower than previous LL level. The occurred imbalance level was a good place for short positions. The price reached there twice. Two different bpr gaps were formed. Now imbalance layer is still a good target for possible short positions.

XAUUSD

Daily analysis

From the early May the price of the gold visited twice the weekly liquidity void. The price bounced from the top of the imbalance level. The market structure is still bearish on daily since no candle was closed over the LH level. In this case, 4H premium zone may be visited after reaching a lower price. On the other hand, the market structure will remain bullish as long as the price is above $1,800. Furthermore, MA100 remains a solid support line.

Hourly analysis

The most remarkable price movement on 1H time frame was bpr. After the first occurrence of bpr, we expected the rise but the candle still included imbalance itself. Therefore, the bpr remained with the third candle including imbalance. The current expectation is to fill the bpr level with shallow descending candles and then move the price upwards.

EURUSD

Daily analysis 

Last week the price reached the imbalance level and this level held the price. Additionally the market structure of the daily chart is still bullish. The price is in a daily discount zone. In the previous assessment of EURUSD pair, we noted a harmonic pattern but its TP2 target has not been reached yet. According to daily structure, there is still some possibility that TP2 target can be reached due to the structure of the daily chart.

4H analysis

The EURUSD pair evaluated to be in bearish since the last three weeks. After the market structure break on 4H chart, the price did not reach 4H premium zone. If the early drawn bearish butterfly harmonic pattern occurs, the price could reach the premium zone. After that, retracement can occur until 0.618 of the harmonic pattern.

Hourly analysis

Last week market structure turn to bullish on 1H time frame. The price reached 1H discount zone and reacted from 1H bullish order block. This level reacted well several times, which shows the intention of the pair to be carried to further high levels.

As a sum of all time frames, the probable price movement can be upwards until 1.095, then correction until 1.08s, and then upwards to 1.12 level.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

 

Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.