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Overview of BTC (Mid-term, long-term, short-term technical analysis + practical example of this week’s trading ~ bottom determination ~)
Overview of BTC
This week, due to the unrest in Russia and Ukraine, the Russian stock index plunged, and the US stock index plunged in a short period of time, but then bounced back sharply. Bitcoin behaves in a similar way, and the weekly candlestick with a large lower wick is likely to be tested (probably the positive line).
Although it is a short-term and violent movement, I always want to keep calm in my mind that it is only a movement within the range ($30,000 to $ 40,000) described earlier at the weekly level.
Mid-term and long-term
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
Last week, it was confirmed by the large upper wicks hidden line whose head was pressed down in the resistance zone of the horizon (white box in the figure).
Although I tried the lower limit of the range as mentioned above this week, it showed a fierce resistance, and the weekly candlestick had a large wick being likely to be confirmed.
↓ BTCUSD Daily candlestick chart
Looking at the daily level, it is easier to understand the movement is within a range.
I would like to continue the basic approach of buying when the lower limit of the range is reached and selling when the upper limit of the range is reached. (for transparency, I bought altcoins when BTC tried the lower limit of the range.)
Even in the short term, it is closely correlated to the US index. Again, there are a lot of violent movements that correlate with US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 23:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression is it will hold at the horizon or zone where it should.
Regarding the local bottom of BTC, I think it was quite difficult to determine the bottom without looking at the Nasdaq Composite Index. I posted TA of the Nasdaq Composite Index last week, and used it to estimate where the bottom could be, so I hope you can refer to it. It is shown below.
Practical example of this week’s trading ~ Bottom judgment ~
First, I will repost the analysis chart of the Nasdaq Composite Index chart introduced last week.
Price range seems to be considered as a daily chart of US100 (from last week’s article)
And this week is as shown in the figure below.
You can see that it has reversed from the white resistance band box around $13,000 and had a lower wick.
Let’s compare the short-term candlestick (five-minute) with BTC and US100.
The following two points can be inferred from this comparison.
- It was around 23:30 the full-scale reversal was shown. (US market opening hours)
- US100 is flipping ahead of BTC. (At first glance, BTC turned around first, but then fell again, and I wasn’t sure if the BTC trend reversal was confirmed here. It was definitely reversed after the opening of the US market.)
Volatility is high which may upset many, but I recommend you think simply and take a position accordingly.