Contents
Overview of BTC (Long and Short Term TA)
Overview of ETH
Overview of BTC
The price has broken out firmly above the recent range of $18,000 to $22,500 this week, and has shown a potential move towards the next resistance area of $26,000. Since I was able to take a long position with this move, I will review the actual position building practically. It will be August from next week, and since it is a monthly update, I will also keep that in mind.
Rather than a change in the long-term trend, I believe the range width has expanded and the market is still in a range.
It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is BTC cannot be solely used to make any judgment. It’s also important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.
Monetary easing is once over and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term buying position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on attack.
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
The price has broken out firmly above the recent range of $18,000 to $22,500 this week.
The week before last, I stated, “if you want to aim for the top in the short term, you must first break through the weekly 200 MA (red line in the above chart), which has been holding the head down for a long time.” In addition, I also mentioned, “I would like to see how this battle will go next week and build an appropriate position.”
In other words, after finalizing the candlestick around 200MA weekly, this week, after making a lower wick like a resistance support conversion (see the description of the lower bar below) around $20,700 in the white box, it turned positive and broke through the 200 MA weekly bar.
This kind of movement has legs (this time around $28,000 in the white support box and conversion to resistance support on lower candlesticks), so it is easy to build a long position, so I think the expected value is high if you take a position aggressively. Since ETH has shown such price movements in advance, it would be better suited to expand the image in the ETH section below.
Today, July 31st, as I am writing this article, the monthly chart for this month will close. If this week’s candlestick closes above the weekly 200MA, we can build long positions against it from next week onwards. Also, when looking at the monthly level, if it moves to test the weekly 200MA, it can become a lower shadow of the monthly stick, so I would like to aim to build a long position next month.
On the other hand, once again, if we consider a slightly longer time axis, whether it reverses or continues to fall, a certain amount of horizontal axis adjustment is necessary, and until then the market should continue in a range. Therefore, I do not believe that this short-term range break has become a trend reversal, and the range width may expand or recur. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to reverse.
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
Looking at the daily chart, the conversion of the $20,700 resistance support is even clearer. The $20,700 to $22,000 range is likely to be a good option if you plan to build a long position next month. If you go back to the weekly description and verify, you will find the price around that area is also the weekly 200MA. This kind of composite observation of each timeframe is the basis of the idea of candlesticks.
Last week, I said, “if you can handle the conversion of the resistance support, you can aim for a rise to the white resistance box of $25,000 next.”
Overview of ETH
↓ ETHUSD Weekly Candlestick Chart
Last week I predicted, “if ETH shows a fairly strong rise, leading BTC to break out of the recent range and continues to rise, the next resistance is likely to be around $1,750. If it moves like this, the key will be whether it can rebound around $1,300 to $1,400 in the event of a short-term decline in the future.” As you can see from the left side, this is a resistance box that seems to be quite difficult to break through in one shot, and even if it breaks through, it will be after next month.
I added the next resistance box around $2,200. Similar to BTC, the 200MA weekly chart is likely to be visited next week and after August. Specifically, we would like to build a long position on the assumption the price will push down to around $1,300.