Weekly Market Update 05-08-2023


Monthly analysis

In the monthly chart, we see a price that has not yet entered the expensive area. The $32,853 low before the sharp decline and the $0.5 level of $32,690 overlap each other. It’s 15% higher than where we are now. When the price comes to this zone, it will make a retracement move in its monthly move.

We can say that the area where the price will see resistance is between $32,690 and $32,853. The first area to find support in the monthly view is $25,350.

Weekly analysis

On the weekly view, there is an FVG formed after retesting the downtrend. $24,511 is the region where we will find support on a weekly basis. We will see if it will get support after seeing resistance from the upper band, or if it will first pick up the buyers who cannot trade here and push them up.

Daily analysis

When we look at the daily view, we see a Propulsion Block (orange box) inside the weekly FVG area. BTC often responds to this structure. The $25,200 – $23,890 range is a solid support zone. The place indicated by the X above indicates that the liquidity left before the sharp fall is taken. This shows us that a price has released new liquidity. On the daily, we can identify the $31,060 – $30,360 range as the region where the price will find resistance.

4h analysis

In the 4-hour view, when we look at the longest price action, we see that sales are in the expensive zone of $30,140 – $29,415. However, an untested Order Block appears above. We are likely to see a rise to the $30,133 – $30,450 range. There is a liquidity left between  $27,140 – $26,900. I think it will get a reaction when it comes to this region.


Daily analysis

Until the early April we were expecting a rise in the price of gold. The target was $2,075, which is a liquidation level. In the forthcoming weeks there was a decrease in the momentum of the price. Therefore, we expected to reach $2,075 after repairing weekly imbalance between $1,940 and $1,860. However, $2,075 was wicked in the first week of May. Now this is a confirmation for probable short positions. On the other hand, this is an ATH level. In the daily, price can reach predefined weekly imbalance. The strength of the buyers will determine the fate of bullish or bearish price movement. It should now be noted that the pattern is bullish in daily, we are on a price retracement.

Hourly analysis

The price had been in a range since April 19th until May 2nd. After the break of the range, price wicked the liquidity level, which was a good indicator for short entries. This allowed us a 3% profit. MA200 of the hourly chart now holds the price. As RSI is in the oversold region and there is an imbalance until $2,033, we can expect a small rise in the price within the imbalance. We can further expect a decrease in the price. Because the market structure is bearish in hourly time frame, whereas it is still bullish in daily as mentioned before.


Daily analysis 

The EURUSD price is a bit higher than the last week’s price and tested 1.11 with a wick. TP-2 target still exist for bullish crab harmonic pattern and 1.1% higher than the top of the wick. RSI level is 49, still in the mid-zone This is a positive indicator for the price to reach TP-2 level. Price would want to reach the premium zone.

Hourly analysis

Last week we identified a liquidity trap by taking the liquidities at both swing high and low regions. The same exists this week again. There are two consecutive market structure breaks. Finally, the price was bullish. The price reached a discount zone which is between fib 0.618 and 1 levels. A rise at least the imbalance between 1.06 and 1.075 is likely to be reached. Further BoS is possible since we expect TP-2 of the harmonic pattern in higher  time frame.

Nihat Çetinkaya

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.