Weekly Market Update 05-22-2023


Daily analysis

The price was bullish from early March. One might think that the price shifted to bearish in early March but it was just TP2 of the bearish harmonic pattern. After reaching the target bitcoin price continued its bullish price movement. The highest price reached on mid-April. The price was unable to make a new high and a shoulder-head-shoulder formation is obvious from the chart. We can expect a price reversal. The important price is HL level. If a candle in daily chart closes below that level, then we can expect lower levels. There are several imbalance zones and a liquidity zone until $19,600 level.

4H analysis

$27,149 was an important level for the current time frame. The price closed down this level. The market structure shifted to bearish on 4H chart. The price reached 4H premium zone and kept its bearish movement. The RSI also shows the momentum decrease in the price. On the other hand, volume shows a decrease. All these are major indicators of possible bearish continuation of the price. Our expectations are the imbalance zones and liquidity under the current price. The major imbalance zone starts from $24,000 level. Discrete liquidation level heat maps shows significant amount of orders just below $22,000, which matches with the second imbalance level.


Daily analysis

After the wick at $2,075, the price of the gold is expected to reach weekly imbalance between $1,940 and $1,860. Last week the price was $2,010, this week the reported value is $1,977. The price is moving in accordance to out expectations. There is a little price distance to 1W imbalance. After reaching this target, we can look for bullish price movement in lower time frames.

Hourly analysis

The market structure was bearish for some time. This week the gold price was also shifted to bearish on 4H time frame. Now we can expect a retracement move to the premium zone on 4H time frame. The location shown as LH is important for price delivery to 4H premium zone. If a candle closes above 1H time frame over LH level, then we can benefit for a small long position until the premium zone, then we can enter short within the premium zone with a confirmation on 15min bearish market structure break. The position can be kept until 1W imbalance zone.


Weekly analysis 

The harmonic pattern within the descending long term channel is unable to reach 0.618 level. Last week bearish MSB was formed on 1H time frame, this week MSB is formed for 4H time frame. These two time frames are important indicator for higher time frame possible shifts. But we should focus on lower time frame charts for possible short entry positions. If the chart goes bearish on 1W time frame, we can expect to reach the eq level of the descending channel, which is around 1.02.

4H analysis

The EURUSD pair generated a MSB at the beginning of May on 1H time frame. It made a BoS but the price was bullish on 4H. We noted a possible market structure break on 4H tie frame and draw a red horizontal line from swing low point. According to our expectation, market made a structure break on 4H time frame. Now we should focus on a short position. The best price to short this pair can be the premium zone located, which is between 1.097 and 1.109.

Hourly analysis

Bearish structure is present in the market on 1H time frame for a long time. Recently, the structure has shifted for 4H time frame. We are on a good position for a reversal on 1H time frame, which will take us to 4H premium zone. The price shown as LH is critical. If a candle closes above that level, then we can think that price made a MSB on 1H time frame and this is a retracement for 4H time frame. In this case the possible price movement is shown with red lines.

** Important Note: Above ideas are not investment advice!**

Nihat Çetinkaya

I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.