Since this is my first written article ever, I will write it as encompassing the entire year. This article is not investment/financial advice, but is written as a reference for understanding the current market. Not financial advice.
Table of contents
BTC Overview (mid-term, long-term, short-term technical analysis)
Many assets (such as the US stock index) that has been rising due to the benefits of monetary easing have generally turned to a downtrend, anticipating the reduction (tapering) of monetary easing. BTC is no exception and is in a downtrend.
The charts below are a credit to Coinbase.
Mid-term / Long-term
BTCUSD Weekly candlestick chart
Looking at the weekly chart, the rate of decline in April 2021 is about the same as the amount of decline this time around. In other words, it has once shown a rebound in the price range that is conscious of the previous price range.
BTCUSD Daily candlestick chart
Two points can be understood by looking at the daily chart.
- Even if you dig down into the current price range, ~$30,000 is a strong support zone (a zone where it has rebounded even if you look at low prices many times in the past), and it seems buying is active. This is a little short-term timeline, but if it falls, there is the option to go long to around $30,000. It seems there will be a rebound at least.
- It is necessary to intervene time adjustment (horizontal axis adjustment) to flip the trend. Look at zone A on the chart. This is the part where the last medium-term adjustment was made.Looking at the horizontal axis, it can be seen that it took about 3 months from May to July 2021 to reverse. This may take some time to reverse from a down to an uptrend, so even if it reverses here, there is not much need to rush in and buy.
Correlation between BTC and Nasdaq Composite Index (US100) / Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)
Even in the short-term, it is often correlated to US indices. There is a lot of movement correlating with US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading if you are not used to it. Especially at 23:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high and violent. The impression is it will stop at the horizon or zone where it should.
Also, even if in a downtrend, if BTC was not sold from the from the local top, be careful about a rush to sell.
After making a big move, it is normal to set up a box range and adjust the horizontal axis, so you should be aware of how to hold a position to buy at the lower limit of the range and sell at the upper limit of the range.
Currently, for example, I want to set up a short-term position with the white box in the figure below for my backing:
Resistance support zone that is likely to be noticed in the latest short-term trade
BTCUSD resistance line on the 4Hr level
Many altcoins have fallen by more than 90% from their ATH.
Also, since the market as a whole is in a clear downtrend, we would like to avoid holding for a long time axis for altcoins. (I will write this repeatedly because I want to keep it in mind until BTC turns bullish.)
If you want to buy on a long-term time axis, you need to make a solid plan and in some cases cut off your losses in a moderate basis.