Tag: Week

Contents
BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
US100 Overview

BTC Overview

The recent trend of the market’s movements continues to give the strong impression its has been burdened by declines in other markets, such as the US100, without much correlation, while there are few signs of a stand-alone upturn. The market continues to be range-bound with limited upside potential.

This week, the US100 made a positive move, but BTC did not move much, so we did not take any new positions. Taking no positions is also a sound strategy. There is no need to force a trade.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make a decision with BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offensive. (repost)

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

As mentioned at the beginning of this report, volatility has been very low.

Since the downside price appears to be solid, the key to the next week and beyond will be whether the price can cross the $19,427 horizontal line in the light blue color in the above chart. Whether or not the price crosses the $19,427 level will determine whether this month will be a positive or negative one.

The reason why I did not take aggressive positions this week is because I had the following policy in mind, which I stated last week. I will reiterate it.

“The monthly leg turned negative and the weekly leg was confirmed by a negative line, so the upside is still showing heavy resistance. Since the monthly leg has turned negative once, I want to refrain from building long positions and it is time to look at the possibility of a slight downside in terms of the horizontal axis. On the other hand, the monthly leg can still turn positive, so I would aim to continue building long positions at the white support box directly below.”

In other words, it’s difficult to take new positions in the current price range.

The only basic policy that we continue to follow is, as I wrote before,

“BTC is

1. The US stocks (US100 or US30) appear to be resisting the decline
2. The short-term price correlation between the US100 and BTC is lessening
3. BTC and Gold tend to move higher towards the end of the year

from the three points above, I am going to try to take a long position against the recent low of $18,000 for once this month. If the price breaks down below it, I will try to buy the drop down once. If the price drops to a lower low with a large drop, I will stop trying to take a long position.

I would like to approach it with this policy.

 

US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100 showed a big rebound this week at the white support box, which I had set up earlier in the week. Next week, I expect the market to either hover around this area or, if it wants to move higher, to the horizontal resistance box directly above. Remember, this setup did not come out of the blue this time, but has been in the works for more than six months and has been consistently a very simple charting setup. All that is displayed is a candlestick, a horizontal box, and two types of MAs. Please compare this article with the previous one. They are practically the same. If you carefully analyze the chart from the top leg, you can see where the price movement is likely to rebound, and you can take a long position there, even though the general trend is down.

 

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch it as well. Another way of putting it is that when taking a position in BTC, you also need to consider the movement of this index.

 

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)

BTC Trading Practices

 

BTC Overview

The recent trend of the market’s movement continues to give the strong impression it has been enduring the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without much correlation, while there being few signs of a stand-alone upturn. The market continues to be range-bound with limited upside potential.

I took one long position this week, which I will focus on as a case study.

The difficulty in the current market is it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offensive. (Repost)

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

The monthly leg has turned negative, the weekly leg is also confirmed by a negative line, and the upside is still seeing resistance. Since the monthly leg has turned negative once, we want to refrain from building long positions and it is time to look at the possibility of a slight downside in terms of the horizontal axis. On the other hand, the monthly leg is still within the range to turn positive, so we would like to continue to build long positions around the white support box directly below.

 

The basic policy as I wrote previously is,

 

“With BTC,

(1) US stocks (US100 or US30) appear to be withstanding the decline.

(2) The short-term price correlation between the US100 and BTC is lessening.

(3) BTC and gold tend to rise toward the end of the year.

 

based on the above three factors, we are going to try to take a long position at the recent low of $18,000 for a while this month. If the price breaks slightly below this level, I will try to buy the dip once. If the price drops below $18,000 plus a big drop to a new low, I will stop trying to take long positions.”

 

I would like to stand on such policy.

 

Overview of the US100

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

Last month, I stated, “The beginning of the week this week was in line with this view. However, it has since made a large negative line, and the upside is heavy. Since the monthly leg is still positive, we are still looking for the price to rise again at the end of the week based on that assumption, but if it continues to fall, we will need to consider the downside to the resistance area below the current price area. We will keep this in mind this week and watch the price action closely.” “This week, the price tested lower, reversed at the white support box, and fell again. (The point of this reversal was the CPI rebound, which is discussed below.)

We will continue to observe price movements next week with the same chart setup. The key point to watch is whether the price will reverse again at the white support box where it showed a short-term rebound last week, or whether the price will break even lower.

 

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as often stated, we need to watch this one as well. When taking a position in BTC, remember to consider the movement of the index.

 

BTC Trading Practices

First of all, we are trading on the assumption there will be an economic indicator, CPI, at 21:30 (JST) on this day, which is likely to result in large volatility. The recent trend has been the release of economic indicators tending to increase volatility in the exchange rate, stock prices, indices, and BTC.

1. ↑ First, the chart setup just prior to the long position is illustrated above. It displays a horizontal support box from a while ago and horizontal resistance lines (two light blue lines).

2. ↑ Observing the previous chart from a weekly macro perspective, it looks as such. The price area around $18,153 is a long point because it is the tip of last week’s wicks and also the weekly wick zone.

3. ↑ This is around 20:30 JST on the hourly before the CPI. If it continues to fall, I am considering building a long position at the lower horizontal line OR horizontal support box.

4. Finally, the CPI at 21:30 JST showed a violent drop and rebounded at the pre-drawn horizontal line, keeping in mind the market opening in New York at 22:30, aiming for a second bottom entry instead of the bottom.

5. BTC at around 22:25 just before NY opening time. Assuming a double bottom & upside reversal into NY around this area, I placed my stop loss a little below the tip of the most recent wick and built a long position.

6. ↑ It then reversed at 22:30 at the New York market venue with an initial lower wick showing a rise.

7. ↑ Profit-taking was done in stages, but all of this long position was taken at the horizontal box. These are the trades I made this week and what I was thinking at the time.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
XRP Miscellaneous
US100 Overview

 

BTC Overview

Although it was good the weekly update moved up in tandem with the rebound in the US 100 and US 30, it has since continued to move higher. As mentioned last week, this gives the strong impression the market is enduring the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without much correlation. At the same time, there are few signs of a stand-alone rally. The market continues to be range-bound at the moment.

Altcoin XRP is charting well, so please read my brief analysis of it this week.

The difficulty in the current market is it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a composite manner.

Since monetary easing has come to an end, funds have been pulled out of the market and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no rush to build a long time horizon buying position. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offensive. (Repost)

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

As we saw last week, the price rose with the weekly update, but was unable to exceed the recent high of $20,500 and is now showing a move back to around the monthly opening price of $19,400. As usual, the market continues to be both firm on the downside and heavy on the upside.

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

The above chart shows the monthly price as of the writing of this article, which is just in the price range of the monthly attack and defense points. Next week, it will be interesting to see if this area can be defended. Since the lower monthly leg is barely positive, I still want to continue targeting long positions, but if next week’s price action seems to reduce the likelihood of a positive monthly leg for this month, I have decided to discontinue that policy. In that case, as I wrote last week, we will need to consider whether we can pivot from $18,000. We will look at that policy decision in conjunction with the movement of the US100 and US30.

 

The only basic policy, as I wrote last week is:

 

“BTC is

1. US stocks (US100 or US30) appear to be resisting the decline.
2. The short-term price correlation between US100 and BTC is becoming less
3. BTC and Gold tend to go up toward the end of the year.

 

from the three points above, I am going to try to take a long position against the recent low of $18,000 for once this month. If the price breaks down a little, I will try to buy when it is down once. If the price drops to a lower low with a big drop, I will stop trying to take a long position.”

 

I would like to stand around with this policy.

 

↓ XRPUSDT daily candlestick chart

Let me analyze the XRP chart because of its better structure compared to BTC.

The first thing I find the structure better is…

1. The price is above the daily 200 MA (recently exceeded)
2. Appears to be breaking out of the blue trendline
3. Once it bounced off the resistance box and appears to be retrying to break through it.

That is why.

It appears a Ripple event called Swell will be held in November. This event has been held many times in the past, and on those occasions, XRP has often tended to rise in price until just before the event.

For these reasons, we would continue to target long positions next week.

 

US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

 

First, a recap of last week’s article and the actual price action is in order.

 

Last week’s article pointed out, “there is a strong possibility of a rebound in that area ($11,000) due to the presence of several horizontal support boxes and also the weekly 200 MA. Since the monthly update is also due this week, we will be watching for a short-term rebound and a positive monthly turnaround in this price area in the next week or so.

Of course, there is a possibility the price could open the week lower, but there is a white support box (around $10,500) just below that will serve as a resistance zone, and I think the monthly leg will eventually turn positive.” I wrote.

 

At the beginning of the week, the price moved in line with this view. However, a large negative line has since appeared, and the upside is heavy. However, if the price continues to fall, we will need to consider the downside potential to the resistance zone below the current price level. We will keep this in mind this week and watch price movements closely.

 

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, we need to watch this one as well. When taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of the index as well.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term Technical Analysis)

US100 Overview

 

BTC Overview

It was another strong week for the dollar, with prices generally trending lower against the U.S. dollar, and both the US 100 and US 30 and Gold were generally weak, as they both headed lower and made new lows.

 

However, the BTC price is still likely to rebound in the short term, so this week should be watched closely. As the month turns over, we would like to build positions based on the positive monthly trend.

 

BTC also showed a decline this week, in tandem with the decline in the US100, and continues to have a heavy upside. However, as we mentioned last week, we have the strong impression BTC has been able to withstand the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without being too closely correlated to the declines in other markets. This week, I feel the correlation between BTC and the US 100 has been even less. This is something to keep in mind. To put it more simply, we are noting BTC has not made new lows while the US100 and US30 have made new lows.

 

The difficulty in the current market is it is impossible to make a judgment based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

 

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar showing strength, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offense. (repost)

 

↓ Monthly candlestick chart of BTCUSD

This week we will start with the standard environmental recognition as we have a monthly update in between. Last month was a negative candle with small substance. The recent low was not broken and the market was range bound. The initial move this month is lower.

 

As I somewhat mentioned in my opening overview:

1. BTCUSD appears to be holding its own against a decline in US equities (US100 or US30)
2. The short term price correlation between the US100 and BTC is lessening
3. BTC and Gold tend to rise toward the end of the year

 

From the three points above, I am going to try to take a long position against the recent low of $18,000 if I can this month. If the price breaks down a little, I will try to buy the dip once. If the price drops below $18,000, the low with a big drop thus I will stop trying to take a long position.

 

↓ Comparison of BTCUSD daily and horizontal axis

Next, let’s look at the daily chart. First, look at the horizontal axis (market cycle). As you can see in the chart above, it seems the price movement is about to show a direction in terms of the cycle. (This is an even more macro view than last week’s horizontal axis analysis.)

 

Combined with the monthly update and other factors, I also believe volatility is likely to expand somewhat from this simmering price action.

 

Combining these factors with the monthly analysis in the previous section, we think we will stand in a long position for the time being. From a macro perspective, the current price range is the high of 2017, and we can see once again this area is a place where the market can struggle, where selling and buying can compete with each other. This is a level where a rebound is possible.

 

Of course, the possibility of a break below is not zero, and in such case, I will stop chasing longs.

 

 

US100 Overview

 

↓ 3-day candlestick chart of US100

The US100 is falling again, as it did last week.

 

Last week I stated, “judging solely by the chart, I think it is likely to attack lower prices to the recent lows around $11,000-$11,500.” The price fell to approximately this area, and the candlestick closed.

 

 

There are several horizontal support boxes in that area, and furthermore, the weekly 200 MA is present, so a rebound is likely. Since the monthly update is also due this week, we will keep a close eye on this price area from next week to see if a short-term rebound and a positive turnaround on the monthly leg can be seen.

 

Of course, there is a possibility the price will continue to fall after the week, but there is a white support box (around $10,500) immediately below that will serve as a resistance zone, and we think the monthly price will eventually turn positive.

 

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch this as well. To reiterate, when taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of the index as well.

Contents

Overview of BTC (long-term and short-term TA)

 

Overview of BTC

BTC has been in an even tighter range this week than last. Volatility is dwindling and so is the so-called “summer market”, so I don’t think it’s necessary to force a position construction. The contents are focused on reviewing last week and this week.

 

Due to the recent upgrade of Ethereum, spot demand for ETH has increased, so be careful not to take an easy contrarian short position. This is because there are many things that must not go against the market, which is driven by actual products. This can be said for both BTC and ETH, so it’s good to remember. In a little more detail, there is an increase in position making, such as ETH spot buying positions and ETH time-limited futures selling positions (positions aimed at acquiring ETHPoW, please check the details on your own.) may also be a factor. When ETH is strong, BTC is often correlated and strong.

In addition, to reiterate, rather than a reversal of the long-term trend, we believe the market is still in a range a widened range.

It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is that BTC cannot be used solely to make any judgement alone. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.

Monetary easing has ended and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term buying position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to attack. (repost of last week)

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

This week, it showed movement as predicted in last week’s article, and the monthly chart turned positive.

 

Last week I stated,

“The month has changed and it’s August, so I’ll start recognizing the environment from the usual monthly chart. Last month (July) was confirmed as a positive line, and this month it’s temporarily a negative line. If there is a positive change after this, we can expect the price to rise to the upper white resistance box of $26,000. If we are aiming for a positive turnaround scenario, we should go long on the back of the white support box of $22,500, which has recently shown a rebound. The daily level is described below. It doesn’t look bad to go long with that as a backing.” A long position around $22,500 is pretty easy to get here, and it’s the only place I’ve taken a position this week. Specifically, it is easy to understand if you verify the upper and lower candles in combination with the indicated part of the daily chart below.

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

Even at the weekly level, the movement was roughly in line with last week’s forecast.

 

In last week’s article I stated,

“As usual, the weekly chart around the 200MA is still a battlefield, and if this week’s chart is confirmed at the 200MA or higher, I think we will be able to build a long position next week as well.”

Also, “On July 31st, as I’m writing this article, the monthly chart for this month will close. If this week’s candlestick closes above the weekly 200MA, we can build long positions against it from next week onwards. Also, when looking at the monthly level, if it moves to test the weekly 200MA, it can become a lower shadow of the monthly candle, so I would like to aim to build a long position next month,” but we plan to continue with this policy.

It basically played out as so. It took six weekly bars, but once the price rises above the weekly 200MA, the weekly positive line is likely to confirm a candlestick. In other words, this weekly 200MA is likely to continue functioning as one of the tally indicators when constructing positions. I said it would take time, but that includes the impression the horizontal axis at the weekly level is reliable to some extent.

 

On the other hand, once again, if we consider a slightly longer time axis, we will need to adjust the horizontal axis to some extent, whether it reverses or continues to fall, and until then the market should continue in a range. Therefore, I do not think that this short-term range break has turned the trend, and that the range width may expand or recur. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to reverse. I think we are still in the process of making the horizontal axis.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA)
Trading USDJPY (Actual Trade)

*This article concludes with an actual USD/JPY trade the author made last week. Feel free to review it as an example of a typical trading practice.

BTC Overview

BTC has been in a narrow range this week. Also, since the monthly chart has been updated, I will also explain the situation on that.

Even now, rather than a reversal of the long-term trend, I still believe the range width has expanded and the market is still in a range.

It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is BTC alone cannot be used to make any judgment. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.

Monetary easing is over for now, and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term long position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on attack.

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

Now that the month has changed and it’s August, I’ll start recognizing the environment from the usual monthly chart. Last month (July) it was confirmed as a positive candle, and this month it is temporarily a negative candle. If the price turns positive after this, we can expect a rally to the next upper white resistance box near $26,000. If you are aiming for a positive turnaround scenario, it would be a good idea to go long on the back of the white support box near $22,500, which has seen a recent rally. It looks like it’s not bad to go long on the back even on the daily level, which will be described later. Let’s take a look at the lower interval level.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

This week was in a narrow range. Therefore, we didn’t do much to build new BTC positions.

 

Specifically, the lower bound is the white support box at $22,500 and the upper bound is around $23,500 where the recent high cannot be broken. As always, the weekly 200MA is still a battlefield, and if the weekly chart settles above the 200MA this week, I think we can build a long position next week as well.

 

In last week’s article, I stated “as of July 31, when I am writing this article, this month’s monthly candle will close. If this week’s candle closes above the weekly 200MA, it will be possible to build a long position from next week onwards. Also, when looking at the monthly level, if there is a move to test the weekly 200MA, it could become a lower shadow of the monthly candle, so I would like to aim to build a long position next month.” I will continue to follow this policy.

 

On the other hand, once again, if we consider a slightly longer time axis, whether it reverses or continues to fall, a certain amount of horizontal axis adjustment is necessary, and until then the market should continue in a range. Therefore, I do not believe that this short-term range break has become a trend reversal, and the range width may expand or recur. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to reverse.

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

Looking at the daily chart, we can see the price has once tried the white box upper limit of $22,500 and is showing a short-term rally. I’m a little skeptical about whether it will continue to turn around, and rather, I think there is a great possibility that it will try the white box lower limit of $22,000 with a wick. I think it would be nice if such a movement reversed and the monthly chart turned positive. If the price deviates from this forecast, it will continue to return to the original range, so there is no need to force oneself into a long position.

 

 

USD/JPY Actual Trade

I made a USD/JPY trade this week and think it’s a pretty good sample, so I would like to introduce it.

First, look at the chart just before taking a position. As for how I looked at this chart beforehand, I saw a white support box similar to the one in the following figure.

In other words, I was aiming to go long around this white box.

After that, the price actually dropped close to the target white support box, so I started building long positions. At this time, the movement of the lower leg is important, so let’s take a look.

If you look at the lower leg, you can see it has formed a double bottom. The important thing is to hit this double bottom and start building positions at the place where the double bottom is likely to form (around 14:35 where the cursor is on the chart). From here, a stop loss can be set to the latest low price (first bottom), so even if a stop loss occurs, the loss will be small and you can trade with a good risk reward.

After that, USD/JPY reversed as shown above and I was able to make a profit.

 

Contents

• This week’s summary
• Overview of BTC (long-term and short-term TA)
• Overview of ETH
• Overview of the US100

 

This week’s summary

Continuing from last week’s article, my view on the market as a whole is I don’t have to forcibly take a position except in an easy-to-understand situation because there is no solid support on any currency but my suspicions. This week I don’t see any particularly new positions to take and did not take any.

In any case, with this state of mind, it is highly likely a market reversal over the long-term axis will require a ranging market for several years. It should be remembered the market environment has a high probability of a temporary rise even if it is about to reverse in the short time.

Also, I would like to keep in mind around July and August, the overall market trend is that trading volume will decrease and it will tend to be a thin in activity.

 

Overview of BTC

This week’s BTC move was also in the range, around $20,000, as mentioned in a previous article.

It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the situation of the current market price is BTC cannot be used solely to make any judgments. It is important to observe each factor in a scrutinizing manner and make a comprehensive judgment.

Since monetary easing has ended and funds are being withdrawn from the market, it is not necessary to rush to build a buy position over the long term. We are now in a phase to protect funds, not in a phase to be on the attack.

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

This week, I have updated the monthly schedule, so I will start with the environmental awareness that is customary at the beginning of each month.

As you can see, the lunar bar in June closed with a big shadow line. As a theory, building a long position with the lower beard of this hidden line as the basis of support for a trading strategy with candlesticks.

However, my idea at this point is I don’t want to have a long position at this point. One of the reasons is already after this wick it is turning negative. Also, as will be described later, one of the reasons is the lower candlesticks are usually weak.

Even if the price tries its best, it will not become a Sun line, but I think it will be shaped like a small pin bar with a candlestick.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

For the time being, this week’s weekly bar is likely to be confirmed by a hidden line enveloping the positive line of last week.

 

After all, it is difficult to have a price rise immediately, and it will either be gradually going down or a sideways price action will be created.

 

It is also important to note if the price breaks below the current lower limit of the range of $18,000, the white support box in the figure below is the only area where a long position can be taken. In other words, it can be said you do not have to forcibly aim to build a long position because BTC is in a state of no strong support.

Again, whether it reverses upwards or continues to fall, some horizontal axis adjustment is required with a ranging market continuing until then.

Even if you look at the weekly candlesticks, information is scarce, so look at the lower candlesticks.

 

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart

Looking at the 8-hour candlestick, the latest price movement has not been able to maintain $20,000 and looks bearish. On the other hand, we are considering building a short-term long position assuming a double bottom as one of the options against the back of the latest low price. This also includes the positive assumption the candlestick may then rise and turn positive.

If this scenario is rejected, we will not build a long position this month.

 

Overview of ETH

↓ ETHUSD three-day candlestick chart

In a previous article, I said, “Similar to BTC, there aren’t many areas showing strong support. I think it’s okay to build a position after you feel like you’re in a range.” I think this is relevant now.

Similar to BTC, ETH seems it will form a ranging market for a while. Specifically, it is assumed the upper limit of the range is around $1,400 lower limit around $800.

 

Overview of the US100

↓ US100 three-day candlestick chart

Regarding the US100, I think you should keep in mind the white support box in the above figure as shown previously. The current price range is the area where the ranging market was formed in the past where price movement is similar.

 

Contents

This Week’s Summary (fundamental aspect)

Overview of BTC (long-term and short-term TA)

Overview of ETH

Overview of US100

 

 

The Week’s Summary

At the time of last week’s article, the perspective was a ranging market, but unlike that perspective, the market continues to decline. Rather than a single crypto asset, it seems that it is linked to the decline in the US100 and U30, which continues to decline due to global monetary tightening. The price ranging many market participants will be aware of, BTC is below $20,000 and ETH is below $1,000.

 

My view of the market as a whole is that I don’t have to force myself to take a position because there is no place to back or I’m suspicious of any currency.

 

In any case, with this feeling, it is highly likely that a market reversal over a long-term axis will require a ranging market for several years. It should be remembered the market environment has a high probability of a temporary rise even if it is about to reverse in the short time.

 

Overview of BTC

As mentioned earlier, BTC has dropped below $ 20,000. By the way, $20,000 is the price range of the previous ATH.

 

It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. The difficulty of the current market price is BTC cannot be used solely to make any determination. It is important to observe each element in a complex manner and make a comprehensive judgment.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

BTC broke below the range very easily and fell below $20,000, as mentioned in last week’s article.

 

Next week, we expect to set a range in the price range around here, that is, around $20,000.

On the other hand, if price breaks below that range, it is important to note that only the white box in the figure below has a place where you can take a long position. In other words, it is not necessary to aim for the construction of a long position because it is in a state of no height.

Overview of ETH

↓ ETHUSD Weekly Candlestick Chart

As mentioned at the beginning, ETH is also breaking the conscious price range one after another, and the situation is quite severe. In the price range around here, I think the box that seems to be conscious is around $800. Like BTC, there are few places showing support. I think it’s okay to build a position after you feel like you’re in a range.

 

Overview of US100

The US100 has fallen this week and has stopped declining in the box shown in the previous article. I think the market will continue to decline, so I would like to avoid forcibly aiming to build a long position for the US100 and linked crypto assets in places other than the white box.

Table of Contents

This week’s summary (fundamental aspect)
Overview of BTC (long-term / short-term TA / short-term trading)
Overview of ETH
Overview of US100

This Week’s Summary
~ ETH continues to fall ~

 

BTC is still ranging, as mentioned last week. Meanwhile, ETH continued to fall this week. The cause seems to be due to the credit insecurity around the operation of ETH’s DeFi called stETH, in addition to the original bad market conditions. Please refer to the following tweets for details:

没错，循环借贷。$ETH

是不是很熟悉，他又来了。搞崩Terra UST的DeFi操作，循环借贷他又来了。通过AAVE和Lido的stETH对以太坊合并后的主网激活进行了数十亿的杠杆对赌。

在 Lido 质押 ETH 换取 stETH

将 stETH 存入 AAVE 并借入 ETH

— BDD NLD (@bdd9999) June 11, 2022

Mashinsky dealing w/the devil (Alameda)

victim is the price of $ETH

how it works:
Celsius sold $steth at discount to SBF in peak fear of peg.

Alabama shorts $ETH
SBF has tons of $steth

Celsius can sell them more $steth at discount

refuse? SBF dumps steth. liquidates celsius

— napgener 0xBullMarket (@napgener) June 11, 2022

Overview of BTC

BTC continues to be in a price range.

I didn’t have much sense of direction, and I felt I was often swayed by the movement of ETH. I felt the correlation with the US100 has become less.

It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment at that time. It can be said the difficulty of the current market price is BTC itself cannot be used to make any judgment. It is important to observe each element in a complex manner and make a comprehensive judgment.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

On the weekly level, it is likely the market will continue to range.

 

Specifically, it is assumed the ranging market is specified as the lower limit of the range = the latest low price of $26,000 and the upper limit of the range = the latest high price of $33,000. Perhaps we should be able to go around with this range assumption for a while. I also want to remember the basis of the range market is to buy at the lower limit and sell at the upper limit. I want to take the opposite position, so-called ‘Tsukkomi’ position, so that it will not be consumed.

 

Just as I was writing the article, such a situation occurred, so I will give it as a concrete example.

In this way, at the lower limit of the range, there are many movements such as hunting for a short position, aiming for a short-term move.

 

Short-term trading

In the short term, the correlation with the US index has become less.

On the other hand, the correlation with ETH, which continues to become less, has increased. When ETH falls, BTC also shows a drop, and when ETH shows a reversal, BTC follows.

 

However, when the US stock index shows a sharp decline, it seems BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position with an easy position and a sense of affordability.

Overview of ETH

↓ ETHUSD Weekly Candlestick Chart

As mentioned above, ETH continued to fall to around $1,440 in the box shown in the previous article, where it once reversed. By the way, I set up a long position to take a backlash around the support area. I think we will set up a range around here ($1,400 to the latest box $1,700), but depending on the movement of BTC at the beginning of the week, we would like to see the possibility of a lower price to around $1,180 of the next long point (weekly 200MA).

 

Overview of US100

There isn’t much to write about this week as well, so please refer to the article from the week before last for the support areas you are aware of.

Table of Contents

Overview of BTC (long-term / short-term TA / short-term trading)

Overview of ETH

Overview of US100

 

Overview of BTC

At this stage, I would like approach the market with a positive outlook forecast this month, but I need to determine carefully.

 

It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market price cannot be determined by judging BTC alone. It is important to observe each element in a complex manner and make a comprehensive determination.

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

June starts this week.

In the previous article I mentioned,

 

“Think about the candle bar for June. As with last week, my policy is to take a long position with the lower wick of the shadow line in May only if the initial movement of the candle bar is down. It is the basic idea of ​​candlesticks. Of course, it may be a positive line without a lower wick, but I think the possibility is extremely low, especially at the monthly level. It is the past on the left side of the above figure. It is clear if you look at the monthly chart of the month.” Accordingly, the current situation is working as expected.

 

Since the initial movement is down once, I would like to have a long position once with the wick tip of the previous month as my back or with a slight break in the low price.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

At the weekly level, it is highly likely the market is ranging.

 

Specifically, it is assumed the range market is specified as the lower limit of the range = the latest low price of $26,000 and the upper limit of the range = the latest high price of $33,000. Perhaps it should be good to go around with this range assumption for a while. I also want to remember the basis of a ranging market is to buy at the lower limit and sell at the upper limit. I want to take the opposite position, so-called ‘Tsukkomi’ position, so it will not be consumed.

 

Short-term trading

In the short term, the link with the US index has become less correlated.

 

Although the US100 showed a rise, BTC did not show a lift, probably due to the decline in ETH.

 

However, when the US stock index shows a sharp decline, I think BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position if this occurs.

 

Overview of ETH

↓ ETHUSD Daily Candlestick Chart

Regarding ETH last week I mentioned,

 

“Since it is stopped at the white box once, there is a possibility of making a positive line next week or next month. At least it seems there is a plunge short from this position, so even if it is a hidden line, I see it being shaken up once in the short term.”

 

As mentioned, it showed a transient rise in the short term. However, it started to fall again at the milestone price range of $2,000. After this, I would like to see if it will move to try another box below, or if it can be reversed at the current price range. In any case, the lower price is considered to be limited, so I would like to aim to build a long position.

 

Overview of US100

There isn’t much to write about this week, so please refer to last week’s article for the support areas you are aware of.