BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
The recent trend of the market’s movements continues to give the strong impression its has been burdened by declines in other markets, such as the US100, without much correlation, while there are few signs of a stand-alone upturn. The market continues to be range-bound with limited upside potential.
This week, the US100 made a positive move, but BTC did not move much, so we did not take any new positions. Taking no positions is also a sound strategy. There is no need to force a trade.
The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make a decision with BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.
Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offensive. (repost)
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
As mentioned at the beginning of this report, volatility has been very low.
Since the downside price appears to be solid, the key to the next week and beyond will be whether the price can cross the $19,427 horizontal line in the light blue color in the above chart. Whether or not the price crosses the $19,427 level will determine whether this month will be a positive or negative one.
The reason why I did not take aggressive positions this week is because I had the following policy in mind, which I stated last week. I will reiterate it.
“The monthly leg turned negative and the weekly leg was confirmed by a negative line, so the upside is still showing heavy resistance. Since the monthly leg has turned negative once, I want to refrain from building long positions and it is time to look at the possibility of a slight downside in terms of the horizontal axis. On the other hand, the monthly leg can still turn positive, so I would aim to continue building long positions at the white support box directly below.”
In other words, it’s difficult to take new positions in the current price range.
The only basic policy that we continue to follow is, as I wrote before,
- The US stocks (US100 or US30) appear to be resisting the decline
- The short-term price correlation between the US100 and BTC is lessening
- BTC and Gold tend to move higher towards the end of the year
from the three points above, I am going to try to take a long position against the recent low of $18,000 for once this month. If the price breaks down below it, I will try to buy the drop down once. If the price drops to a lower low with a large drop, I will stop trying to take a long position.
I would like to approach it with this policy.
↓ US100 daily candlestick chart
The US100 showed a big rebound this week at the white support box, which I had set up earlier in the week. Next week, I expect the market to either hover around this area or, if it wants to move higher, to the horizontal resistance box directly above. Remember, this setup did not come out of the blue this time, but has been in the works for more than six months and has been consistently a very simple charting setup. All that is displayed is a candlestick, a horizontal box, and two types of MAs. Please compare this article with the previous one. They are practically the same. If you carefully analyze the chart from the top leg, you can see where the price movement is likely to rebound, and you can take a long position there, even though the general trend is down.
In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch it as well. Another way of putting it is that when taking a position in BTC, you also need to consider the movement of this index.