Table of Contents
Overview of BTC (Mid-term, long-term, short-term technical analysis + short-term trading practice example)
Overview of BTC
This week the market ranged towards a heavy upside. We believe the ranging market is likely to continue next week.
Medium / Long Term
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
Last week there was a confirmation of the weekly positive trend, but since the fixed position of the weekly bar last week was the resistance zone of the horizon (white box in the figure), it is likely to be confirmed by a small candlestick this week (ranging market price when viewed on a lower timeframe).
We will continue to assume the monthly bar is in a positive trend, and even if it falls in the short term in the future, we are thinking of building a short-term long position against the opening price of the monthly chart (as it seems buying will be made with the opening price of the monthly chart in mind).
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
It is almost identical as the content of last week’s article, but there are two points that can be seen by looking at the daily chart.
- The current price range is at the resistance zone of the daily level resistance.
Therefore, the profits of long positions and of new short positions from the bottom are considered likely to enter the price range in this area, likely resulting in a conflict (range market) in this price range.
Although it seems to move out of this resistance band in the short term this week, there may be a wick at the daily level where the upper price is likely to have strong resistance.
- We must not forget it may be necessary to insert a time adjustment (horizontal axis adjustment) for the trend to flip (reposted).
Short Term
The cryptocurrency market is strongly correlated to the US index even in the short term. Again, there are many volatile movements correlating with US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so tread carefully when trading if you are not used to it. Especially at 23:30 JST when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, it seems the price may hold at the horizon or zone where it should stop.
I also felt this week there was relatively small correlation in the short term compared to last week. I want to trade keeping in mind the environment changes constantly. Once the US index establishes a direction, it will trend in that direction for a while on that day. Positions that go against that trend should be avoided.
Short Term Trading Practice Example
Here are some practical examples of short-term trading this week (this example is of a short-term trader).
This chart is a comparison chart of BTC (top) and Nasdaq Composite Index (bottom) near the opening time of the US stock market on February 10. As mentioned above, it is obvious the movement is correlated, and it is important to pay attention to the magnitude of the volatility. It has fluctuated by more than 5% in a short period of time.
For reference, how it was traded:
At 23:15, the zone of the white box in the candlestick above was confirmed with the lower wick, and then after 16 minutes, it seems the long position was built from this zone from the lower wick on the back side.