Table of Contents
This week’s summary (fundamental aspect)
Overview of BTC (long-term / short-term TA / short-term trading)
Overview of ETH
Overview of US100
This Week’s Summary
~ ETH continues to fall ~
BTC is still ranging, as mentioned last week. Meanwhile, ETH continued to fall this week. The cause seems to be due to the credit insecurity around the operation of ETH’s DeFi called stETH, in addition to the original bad market conditions. Please refer to the following tweets for details:
没错，循环借贷。$ETH
是不是很熟悉，他又来了。搞崩Terra UST的DeFi操作，循环借贷他又来了。通过AAVE和Lido的stETH对以太坊合并后的主网激活进行了数十亿的杠杆对赌。
在 Lido 质押 ETH 换取 stETH
将 stETH 存入 AAVE 并借入 ETH
— BDD NLD (@bdd9999) June 11, 2022
Mashinsky dealing w/the devil (Alameda)
victim is the price of $ETH
how it works:
Celsius sold $steth at discount to SBF in peak fear of peg.Alabama shorts $ETH
SBF has tons of $stethCelsius can sell them more $steth at discount
refuse? SBF dumps steth. liquidates celsius
— napgener 0xBullMarket (@napgener) June 11, 2022
Overview of BTC
BTC continues to be in a price range.
I didn’t have much sense of direction, and I felt I was often swayed by the movement of ETH. I felt the correlation with the US100 has become less.
It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment at that time. It can be said the difficulty of the current market price is BTC itself cannot be used to make any judgment. It is important to observe each element in a complex manner and make a comprehensive judgment.
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
On the weekly level, it is likely the market will continue to range.
Specifically, it is assumed the ranging market is specified as the lower limit of the range = the latest low price of $26,000 and the upper limit of the range = the latest high price of $33,000. Perhaps we should be able to go around with this range assumption for a while. I also want to remember the basis of the range market is to buy at the lower limit and sell at the upper limit. I want to take the opposite position, so-called ‘Tsukkomi’ position, so that it will not be consumed.
Just as I was writing the article, such a situation occurred, so I will give it as a concrete example.
In this way, at the lower limit of the range, there are many movements such as hunting for a short position, aiming for a short-term move.
Short-term trading
In the short term, the correlation with the US index has become less.
On the other hand, the correlation with ETH, which continues to become less, has increased. When ETH falls, BTC also shows a drop, and when ETH shows a reversal, BTC follows.
However, when the US stock index shows a sharp decline, it seems BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position with an easy position and a sense of affordability.
Overview of ETH
↓ ETHUSD Weekly Candlestick Chart
As mentioned above, ETH continued to fall to around $1,440 in the box shown in the previous article, where it once reversed. By the way, I set up a long position to take a backlash around the support area. I think we will set up a range around here ($1,400 to the latest box $1,700), but depending on the movement of BTC at the beginning of the week, we would like to see the possibility of a lower price to around $1,180 of the next long point (weekly 200MA).
Overview of US100
There isn’t much to write about this week as well, so please refer to the article from the week before last for the support areas you are aware of.