- This week’s summary
- Overview of BTC (long-term and short-term TA)
- Overview of ETH
- Overview of the US100
This week’s summary
Continuing from last week’s article, my view on the market as a whole is I don’t have to forcibly take a position except in an easy-to-understand situation because there is no solid support on any currency but my suspicions. This week I don’t see any particularly new positions to take and did not take any.
In any case, with this state of mind, it is highly likely a market reversal over the long-term axis will require a ranging market for several years. It should be remembered the market environment has a high probability of a temporary rise even if it is about to reverse in the short time.
Also, I would like to keep in mind around July and August, the overall market trend is that trading volume will decrease and it will tend to be a thin in activity.
Overview of BTC
This week’s BTC move was also in the range, around $20,000, as mentioned in a previous article.
It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the situation of the current market price is BTC cannot be used solely to make any judgments. It is important to observe each factor in a scrutinizing manner and make a comprehensive judgment.
Since monetary easing has ended and funds are being withdrawn from the market, it is not necessary to rush to build a buy position over the long term. We are now in a phase to protect funds, not in a phase to be on the attack.
↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart
This week, I have updated the monthly schedule, so I will start with the environmental awareness that is customary at the beginning of each month.
As you can see, the lunar bar in June closed with a big shadow line. As a theory, building a long position with the lower beard of this hidden line as the basis of support for a trading strategy with candlesticks.
However, my idea at this point is I don’t want to have a long position at this point. One of the reasons is already after this wick it is turning negative. Also, as will be described later, one of the reasons is the lower candlesticks are usually weak.
Even if the price tries its best, it will not become a Sun line, but I think it will be shaped like a small pin bar with a candlestick.
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
For the time being, this week’s weekly bar is likely to be confirmed by a hidden line enveloping the positive line of last week.
After all, it is difficult to have a price rise immediately, and it will either be gradually going down or a sideways price action will be created.
It is also important to note if the price breaks below the current lower limit of the range of $18,000, the white support box in the figure below is the only area where a long position can be taken. In other words, it can be said you do not have to forcibly aim to build a long position because BTC is in a state of no strong support.
Again, whether it reverses upwards or continues to fall, some horizontal axis adjustment is required with a ranging market continuing until then.
Even if you look at the weekly candlesticks, information is scarce, so look at the lower candlesticks.
↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart
Looking at the 8-hour candlestick, the latest price movement has not been able to maintain $20,000 and looks bearish. On the other hand, we are considering building a short-term long position assuming a double bottom as one of the options against the back of the latest low price. This also includes the positive assumption the candlestick may then rise and turn positive.
If this scenario is rejected, we will not build a long position this month.
Overview of ETH
↓ ETHUSD three-day candlestick chart
In a previous article, I said, “Similar to BTC, there aren’t many areas showing strong support. I think it’s okay to build a position after you feel like you’re in a range.” I think this is relevant now.
Similar to BTC, ETH seems it will form a ranging market for a while. Specifically, it is assumed the upper limit of the range is around $1,400 lower limit around $800.
Overview of the US100
↓ US100 three-day candlestick chart
Regarding the US100, I think you should keep in mind the white support box in the above figure as shown previously. The current price range is the area where the ranging market was formed in the past where price movement is similar.