BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA)
Overview of the US100
This week was a strong week for the dollar, with markets generally trending lower against the dollar, and both the US100 and US30 and Gold were looking to make new lows and recent lows. Next week will be one to watch, as the price has come down to a price range which is likely to show a short-term rebound.
BTC has been falling in tandem with the decline in the US 100 this week, and the market has continued to move lower and higher. Of course, in the big picture, the market is ranging.
The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.
Since monetary easing has come to an end, funds have been pulled out of the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no rush to build a long time horizon buying position. This is a phase to protect funds, not to be on the offense. (reiterated)
↓ Daily candlestick chart of BTCUSD
Continuing from last week, it is easy to see on a daily basis the market is in a range. Since the current price range is at the lower end of the range, it seems more promising to target long positions at such times as the weekly update, rather than taking short positions in an attempt to break through the lower end of the range.
↓ Daily candlestick chart of BTCUSD w/horizontal axis added
Also, although this is only a hypothetical double bottom at the bottom of these two points, I think it is running out unless the price shows signs of a reversal soon, even on the horizontal axis. In other words, if we fail to move up within the next week, the probability of a break below this low price area will increase. Next week will also be interspersed with monthly updates, so it may be worth looking at the possibility of an initial swing lower around that time, creating a lower wick, and then a positive turnaround.
Continuing from last week, again from a macro perspective, we can see the current price area is the high of 2017, and this area is once again a place where we can struggle, i.e., where selling and buying could be competing with each other.
Based on such at this point, it is important to assume the market is in a range. Specifically, buy at $18,000 and sell at or near $26,000.
In a ranging market, the basic rule is “buy low and sell above.” In this case, selling at $18,000 is not a good idea. Even if we break below this low in the future, it is necessary to create a horizontal axis in the form of a holding triangle. As I wrote above, I would like to keep the above policy for a while as long as the market does not break below this current range.
Overview of the US100
↓ Weekly candlestick chart of US100
The US100 fell again last week.
Last week I said, “judging by the chart alone, I think we are likely to attack lower prices to the recent lows around $11,000-$11,500.” The price fell to approximately this area and the candlestick closed.
The reason is that there are several horizontal boxes in that area and the 200MA is also present, so a rebound is highly likely. Therefore, we will be watching closely to see if a short-term rebound can be seen in this price area in the next week or so.
In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch BTC as well. In other words, when taking a position in BTC, you need to take into account the movement of the index as well.