BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA)
Overview of US100
This week’s BTC is linked to the decline of the US100, showing a decline, and continuing to have a heavy topside. Of course, looking at the big picture, it is within the scope of the ranging market.
It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is BTC cannot be used solely to make any judgments. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.
Monetary easing has ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the US dollar is strong. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the attack. (repost)
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
Looking at the daily chart, it is easy to understand we are in a ranging market. Since the current price range is at the lower end, rather than holding a short position aiming to break through the lower end of the range, it seems the expected value is higher for aiming for a long position at the timing of weekly updates.
If you want to open a short position to break out of the lower end of the range, you can build your position against the recent high of $22,500. In that case, we assume a shape like a descending triangle.
Last week I mentioned, “looking at it again from a macro perspective, the current price range is the highest price in 2017, and you can see again this area is a place where selling and buying can be evenly matched.”
Therefore, at this point, it is important to assume the market is range bound. Specifically, the idea is to buy at around $18,000 and sell at around $26,000 or less.
The basics of a ranging market are “buy low, sell high”, and in this example, selling at $18,000 is not a good idea. If the price breaks below this low in the future, it will need to form a consolidating triangle-like shape to create a horizontal axis.” I would like to continue with the above policy for the time being unless the price falls below the current range.
↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart
Looking at the monthly chart again, we can see the current price range is the opening price of the monthly chart, which is the point of price competition.
In last week’s article I stated, “as a future policy for this month, we should take a position based on the assumption this month will be positive, with the monthly opening price of about $20,000 as support.” Next week, based on this assumption, we would like to build a position while keeping an eye on the movements of the US100.
Overview of the US100
↓ US100 daily candlestick chart
The US100 fell again last week. Judging only from the chart, we are thinking the price may push the price down to the recent lows of $11,000 to $11,500.
This is because there are multiple horizontal support areas and the presence of the 200MA, so it is likely the price will rebound. In any case, as long as the US100 does not rebound, BTC is unlikely to rebound, so as I always write, it is necessary to look at this as well. In other words, when taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of the index as well.