BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
The recent trend of the market’s movement continues to give the strong impression the market has been enduring the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without much correlation, while there are few signs of a stand-alone upturn. The market continues to be range-bound with limited upside potential.
This week, the market has broken out of the short-term range and the monthly leg has turned positive, but it remains in a ranged market category as to whether a trend is emerging or not. The basis of a range market is to buy at the lower end and sell at the upper end of the range. In other words, from last week to this week, do not force yourself to take short positions in order to break below the range. A horizontal time adjustment is needed to break out of the range.
The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.
Since monetary easing has come to an end, funds have been pulled out of the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no rush to build a long-term buying position. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
BTC will show an uptick this week and the weekly leg is likely to be confirmed with a positive line. The monthly leg is also likely to be positive.
The current price range is at the upper end of the white box, which is the upper end of the range, so it looks like it will be a bit heavy and is a short-term profit taking point. The monthly leg for this month will close this week, but as mentioned below, I think it is a good policy to pick up the price when it falls again next month.
↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart
In last week’s article, I wrote, “since the downside price appears to be solid, the key for next week and beyond will be whether or not the price can cross the $19,427 horizontal light blue line in the chart above. Whether or not the price crosses the $19,427 mark will determine whether this month will be a positive or negative one. This is exactly the point to watch this week. The above chart shows that the price has been rising vigorously after firmly crossing the $19,427 level. This is a noticeably clear case of “the opening price of the upper time frame, such as the monthly time frame, is well aware of itself,” so it is good to keep this in mind.
This week, I built a long altcoin position at the time this $19,427 was firmly exceeded in substance. (I was not only judging BTC on its own, but also watching the movement of the US100.)
This is a slightly more applied technique, where when BTC is about to rise, and as in this case, the support is somewhat far away and it is difficult to take a position in BTC on its own, you take a position in an altcoin that moves after BTC. This is another highly reproducible technique to keep in mind as it can be applied in the future.
From a macro perspective, we continue to believe, over the next month or so, the only basic policy will be, as we wrote before,
- Appears to be resisting the decline from US stocks (US100 or US30)
- Is showing a lessor correlation in the short-term price with the US100
- Tends to rise towards the end of the year, similar to gold
Based on these three points, we are thinking of taking a long position against the recent low of $18,000 in the event of a decline. If the price breaks down a little, I will try to buy the dip once. If the price drops below $18,000, I will stop trying to take a long position.
I would like to stand around with this policy.
↓ US100 daily candlestick chart
The US100 showed a range-bound move this week without making a new low.
This year, I believe it will not break new lows and will continue to move around this price range ($10,400-$12,400) for a time next week and beyond, as shown on the left side of the chart.
In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always state, it is necessary to watch it as well. When taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of this index as well.