BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA, Altcoin Standing Tips)
The recent trend of the market’s movement continues to give the strong impression it has been enduring the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without much correlation, while there are a few signs of a stand-alone upturn. The market continues to be range-bound with limited upside potential.
The “altcoin market” has recently seen strong price action following the strong price action in BTC. In this week’s article, I will provide a few tips on how to navigate such a market.
The difficulty in the current market is that it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.
Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long-time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)
↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart
This week was the week between monthly updates, so we do our customary environmental awareness check.
Last month, after testing the recent low of $18,000, we turned positive and were able to confirm the monthly leg with a positive candle. This month, too, the current situation is positive. If the price continues to rise, the monthly price should reach $26,000, where the resistance area is located.
Also, thanks to this positive monthly confirmation, many altcoins are strong and showing a rise. It is the so-called “BTC rises, then altcoins lag behind,” which is the usual rule. One of the characteristics of such a market is “each individual altcoin rises in turn with a time lag.” In other words, it is called the altcoin “cycle.” Recently, for example, after $CHZ rose, other $CHZ-related fun tokens rose after a short time lag. Such “cycles” are often seen between altcoins of similar nature. This means if you observe a rise in one altcoin, you should pay attention to its related altcoins. It is like an “association game.”
As for our future policy, from a macro perspective as stated previously, our only basic policy is as we continued to do last month,
- US stocks (US100 or US30) appear to be resisting the decline
- The short-term price movement correlation between US100 and BTC is lessening
- BTC and Gold tend to rise towards the end of the year
based on the three points, if the price drops, I will try to take a long position against the recent low of $18,000. If the price breaks down a little, I will try to buy the price dip. If the price drops to a lower low with a jiggle down plus a big drop, I will stop trying to take a long position.”
This is the policy I plan to stand on.
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
Since our general policy was confirmed in the monthly section, we will also check the lower weekly section. Then, if the price continues to rise, we should pay attention to the $22,400 area where the white resistance box just above exists and the $24,000 area of the weekly 200MA as candidates for the price range where the price is likely to stop increasing (guideline for profit-taking).
Two important points remain:
(1) stand on the assumption of a ranging market (perhaps a market with a shrinking range),
(2) take profits frequently.
↓ US100 daily candlestick chart
The US100 has shown a range-bound move this week, without making a new low, but the weak price action is likely to test the lows again.
If it continues to fall, the next white support box will be around the $10,000 level, which is a good distance from the current price range, so it is likely to be a reasonably large decline. In that case, BTC is likely to show an accompanying decline, so we should stay alert and keep this in mind.
In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is also unlikely to rebound, so as I always state, it is necessary to watch BTC as well. When taking a position in BTC, be sure to consider the movement of the index.