BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
This week was a tumultuous week for crypto assets. Leading crypto asset exchange FTX (the second largest exchange in the world at the time) went bankrupt. We will not go into details, but it was discovered FTX had been privately speculating on funds entrusted to it by its customers and incurring huge losses, and customers were unable to withdraw their crypto assets from their own investment funds. This was a huge shock to the industry, as the exchange was world-renowned and quite trusted.
↑ $FTT daily candlestick chart
FTX exchange token $FTT sold off sharply, falling more than 90% in a matter of days, and $SOL, which had close ties to FTX, also fell sharply. Following their lead, other crypto assets sold off, and BTC was no exception. As we will see below, we need to change our minds a bit from the past week.
The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible make any judgments using BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.
Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long-term horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, $BTC has fallen below its daily range due to the FTX bankruptcy and credit concerns. The strategy up to last week’s article was to assume within the range, so we need to switch our mindset. In this case, the next price area that could pick up would be the price range with a white support box around $13,000-$14,000 directly below.
Currently we are at the halfway point, so taking a “do nothing (no position)” is our stance. “It would be better to wait until the price is about to form a range or make a double bottom. If a new low is confirmed by a large negative candle, I would not force a long position.” This is the case with the current situation.
↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart
Previously I stated, “the current price range is halfway there, but it will be clearer if you check with the higher leg, the monthly leg. In other words, since we are in a ‘no-backing’ (no support) situation, we ‘cannot set a stop-loss’ and therefore ‘cannot take a position.’”
Wait and see with this market. No need to rush.
↓ US100 daily candlestick chart
The US 100 has been a range-bound market this week. The setup will continue as is and we will continue to watch.
This has little to do with the movement of BTC this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, we need to watch this one as well. When taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of this index.