BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
We continue to believe we should not be in a hurry to trade now, as volatility is shrinking chart-wise and we are at the halfway point in the price range. But once we have the monthly update in between, we can organize based on such.
The difficulty in the current market is it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.
Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)
↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart
Now that December is here, we do our customary environment awareness: the month of November closed with a shadowy line with a lower wick.
As I have reiterated since my article two weeks ago, I will not be aggressively taking positions in the current price range, as it remains a halfway price range. I think it is better to wait until a clear range is about to be formed or until a double bottom is made.
However, if I were to try to take a position, I could try to go long for an initial positive turnaround in December, with a loss at the low of the November wick or a break below the low. It is possible the monthly leg will turn positive once it swings upward.
Other than this one point, I would basically take no position (sell back if possible).
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
This week’s (11/28 – 12/4) weekly price is confirmed as a positive leg, and the first point to watch from next week onward is whether it can cross the light blue line ($17,165 opening price for the month of December). Since the $16,000 area is a wick-prone zone at the weekly level, it is worth picking it up.
Also, I think the price see selling pressure at the $18,000 area, which was originally a support (it has now broken below and is a white support box in the resistance price zone), so be careful to confirm the candlestick at that time. For example, if a shadow line created as a result of a sellback encompasses a previous positive line at the daily or 4-hour level, it is strictly forbidden to follow the long move to the white box below. Thus, it is important to make compounding decisions on multiple time frames.
↓ US100 weekly candlestick chart
The US 100 has been a range-bound market this week. Setups will continue as they are and remain to be seen. The range market is likely to continue in this price area for a while. The so-called “attack and defense against the weekly 200 MA” is being played out. This is clearly indicated by the wicks of the candlesticks. The current price range is heavy on the upside, with the white support box of resistance just above it, and the lower price is supported by the weekly 200 MA, which is sandwiched between the two.
This has little to do with BTC’s move this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, we need to watch this one as well. Another way of putting it is that when taking a position in BTC, you also need to take into account the movement of the index.