Weekly Market Update – 12-12-2022

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
USDJPY Example Trade
US100 Overview

The market continues to be at the midpoint of the price range, with charted volatility shrinking. For this reason, we believe it is best not to not rush things, but to trade when the chart is in shape. I have not traded any BTC this week, as there have been no significant price movements. Instead, I traded USDJPY and posted it as a practical example for your reference.

The difficulty of the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner. Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long-time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)


BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart

The longer time horizon analysis and basic stance policy remains the same as last week, so please refer to last week’s article. Since the current price range is still at the halfway point, I do not intend to take aggressive positions. I think it is better to wait until we are about to form a clear range or make a double bottom.

As previously mentioned, there has been little price movement this week, and I think it will be difficult to trade. The current price range is the opening price of the month, and it will be interesting to see whether or not the price will exceed this area in the coming weeks. If it falls to the short-term support area (around $16,800) one more time, it might be a good time to pick up some.

If the price does not test the lows and rises, I plan to go long against the current price range with the idea of a resistance turnaround.

In addition, I believe the price will sell back at the $18,000 area, which was originally support (now broken by the white support box in the resistance price range), and I will be careful to confirm the candlestick at the time. For example, if a shadow line created as a result of a selloff encompasses a previous positive line at the daily or 4-hour level, it is strictly forbidden to follow the long move to the white support box below. Thus, it is important to make compounding decisions on multiple time frames.


USDJPY Example Trade

At 10:30 p.m. on 12/9, an economic indicator called PPI was announced, and the trade was made because it was close to a horizontal line at the support area. Incidentally, since large price movements often occur with the release of economic indicators, one should be careful to manage one’s funds when making trades.

  1. Initially, I will post a chart setup before taking any position.

↓ USDJPY weekly candlestick chart

Incidentally, the key area is the horizontal line around 135.6.

↓ USDJPY 4-hour candlestick chart

It is good to be able to imagine a box like the one shown above in the short-term leg as well.

2. The 5-minute chart at 10:00 p.m. just before the PPI indicator is asymptotically approaching the horizontal blue line shown earlier in the chart below.

Since there is 30 minutes before the indicator, the play is to wait without buying yet.

3. The 10:28 p.m. minute is like this: I come to the target price, set a stop-loss, and buy.

4. With the release of the index, the price movement was as such:

Finally, I took profit as it almost touched the above horizontal line.

We hope you have noticed we have kept the horizon lines and time in mind to make simple trades.


US100 Overview

↓ US100 weekly candlestick chart

The US100 has been in a range-bound market this week. Setups will continue as they are and remain to be seen. The ranging market is likely to continue in this price area for a while. The so-called “attack and defense against the weekly 200 MA” is being played out. This is clearly indicated by the wicks of the candlesticks. The current price range is supported by a white resistance box directly above it, and the upper price is shows heavy sell pressure, while the lower price is supported by the weekly 200 MA being sandwiched between the two. We expect the price to struggle in this area for some time.

This has little to do with BTC’s movement this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always state, we need to watch this one as well. Another way of putting it is when taking a position in BTC, you also need to take into account the movement of this index.