BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
Chart-wise, volatility is shrinking and we are at the halfway point in the price range, so we do not want to rush into a trade now, but rather trade after the chart takes shape.
In the short term, the move was easy to create positions, and we will explain this with a review of last week’s article.
It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment at any given time. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.
Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to be in a hurry to build buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offensive. (repost)
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
This week (12/12~12/18), BTC had a brief rally at the beginning of the week, but then hit the white resistance box (around $18,000) and dropped, as expected. Here is a recap, along with a description of last week’s article.
In an easy to understand manner, the way I saw it in last week’s article was,
“I think we will see a return sell-off at the $18,000 area, which was originally support (now broken and the white box at the resistance price area), and I would be careful to confirm the candlestick at that point. For example, if a shadow line created as a result of a sell-off encompasses a previous positive line at the daily or 4-hour level, it is strictly forbidden to go long to the white box below.”
This is due to the fact the price movement is roughly as expected because it was
Therefore, the long position I had at the beginning of this week (12/12~12/18), which is described later in this report, was profit-tested at around $18,000 and then saw sell pressure. Per my policy, I intend to wait and see how things go for a while.
↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart
I will also review the short-term rally earlier this week on the lower leg. I built a long position in the area circled by the rectangle in the chart above (around $16,900). This is a long position aiming for a positive turnaround from the lower part of the initial weekly update and a positive turnaround on the monthly leg (the base price for a positive turnaround is the light blue line at $17,165, the opening price of the monthly leg).
This is in line with last week’s article, “the current price range is the opening price of the monthly leg, and it will be a point of interest to see whether or not this area can be exceeded in the next week or so. If it falls back down to the short-term box (around $16,800), we may pick it up.” This is the practice example of the part “I am not sure if this is a good idea.”
The above is a review of the trades we made this week, and I hope you also understand the importance of making compounding decisions on multiple time frames.
↓ US100 8-hour candlestick chart
The US 100 has been in a range-bound market this week. The setup will continue as is and will continue to be monitored. The US100 was in a downtrend this week, and the reasons for this are easy to see when observing the chart: it is at the upper end of the range, and it hit a diagonal line (newly added). This declining diagonal line is a point to watch a bit more in the future. Over the next week or so, it will be important to check which white support area it will stop at if the decline continues.
This has little to do with BTC’s movement this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, we need to watch this as well. Another way of putting it is that when taking a position in BTC, you also need to take into account the movement of this index. BTC’s decline from the $18,000 level this week was linked to the decline in the US100.