BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term Technical Analysis)
Chart-wise, volatility is lessening more and more and we are at the halfway point in the price range, so we think it is best not to rush now, but to trade when the chart is in better shape. As for this week and the previous, I have not traded a BTC at all. For this month of January, I dare to write, I want to be careful of the anomaly of this decline.
The difficulty of the current market is that it is impossible to make a decision on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner. Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
This past week (12/26-12/31), volatility shrank more than before, and there were few short-term price breakouts. Therefore, we did not take any trades on BTC this week.
As I stated in last week’s article, “As is my policy, I will be watching the market for some time to come.” This is the premise of the article and will continue to be the policy next week.
Also, as is the annual trend (anomaly) for BTC, it is very common for BTC to drop 10% or more in January, so we will watch out for that as well. Trying to go long against the recent lows is an option, but in conjunction with this anomaly, I think it is a good idea to wait a bit.
↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart
↓ BTCUSD yearly candlestick chart
Let’s take another look at this past week (12/6 – 1/1/2023) as we have a monthly update and an annual update in between.
In this view, 2022 was a rather large negative candle. After a big negative candle, it is basically easy to become positive, so I think 2023 will be a little easier to target longs. Until monetary easing starts again, I think it will be tough for the market to make new highs.
Looking at the monthly chart, in conjunction with the January anomaly, we may be prepared for a drop to $14,000. In any case, it is a price range where it is difficult to take positions until a little more time passes, so we think there is no need to rush. Let’s keep up the good work this year.
↓ US100 daily candlestick chart
The US 100 continues to be range-bound this week. Setups will continue to be seen as they are. The US100 is still in a downtrend as last week, but it looks like it is about to turn back to the white support box at the lower end of the range, with a lower wick. We will keep a close eye on whether the price will stop here or go further down. If it does, BTC is likely to move lower with it.
This has little to do with BTC’s movement this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch BTC as well. Another way to write this is that when taking a position in BTC, you also need to take into account the movement of the index.