BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
Chart-wise, volatility is lessening more and more, and we are at the halfway point in the price range, so we think it is best not to rush now, but to trade when the chart is in better shape. As for this week (1/2 – 1/8), I have not traded BTC at all, as I did last week. The rest is due to the market. If I dare to write about this month of January, I would like to be careful of this falling price anomaly.
To begin, the declining volatility can be clearly seen in the chart below.
This chart of Bitcoin Historical Volatility shows the current level of volatility is much lower than it was a few years ago. In anticipation of lower volatility, one could use options trading to create a short straddle (sell calls and puts), but there would be no need to force the trade. Rather, it may be better to position in the direction of increased volatility, albeit counter-intuitively, now.
The difficulty in the current market is that it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner. Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
Volatility is declining and short-term trades are difficult, but as always, once in place, I don’t think it is a bad option to take a long position on the support of the recent low around the $16,000 break. If prices fall over the next week or so, you could try to buy against that area.
Now all we need to do is pay a little attention to the anomaly I wrote about in my last article, that historically, BTC often falls 10% or more in January.
↓ US100 daily candlestick chart
The US100 continues to be range-bound this week (1/2 – 1/8). The setup will continue to be viewed as it is. The US100 continued its downward trend from last week, but clearly turned around at support at the lower end of the range in the white support box.
↓ US100 4-hour candlestick chart
This can be clearly seen in the lower 4-hour time frame. These areas are short-term long points. The behavior in this price range should be watched over the next week and beyond.
It does not have much to do with the movement of BTC this week (1/2 – 1/8), but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always mention, it is necessary to watch this as well. Remember when taking a position in BTC, you need to take into account the movement of this index as well.