Weekly Market Update 4-17-2023


In our weekly market analysis, we came to an important region at $31,600-$32,600, which has been considered support many times in the past.

Since this region has been support many times before and then been broken, it is now strong resistance. In this sense, this region may appear as a resistance area which can be the continuation of the downtrend. For this reason, if purchases will be made in this region, resistance breakdowns should be followed. This region is a profitable area if purchases have been made before.

On the daily charts, the market structure is trending upwards but we need to follow the pullbacks. Our retracement area is the red shaded region, when this region comes, if we observe a movement on the last peak in the 4hr time frame, we can start to take upward trades.

Bitcoin continues in the buyer zone in the 4hr timeframe. We will continue to take up trades as we see 15min reversals in this timeframe. It may want to fill the FVGs in the lower area later, so let’s try not to take any upward trades unless we see turns in the red zone.

On the other hand, the US House Committee Publishes the Stablecoin Law Draft. The drafted law, found on the committee’s hearing page, will represent the first major crypto legislation to be moved in 2023.

There was a pullback due to the breaking of the wedge on the Bitcoin 1hr timeframe. In addition, the market structure is broken on the 1hr timeframe and our ideas of the market will fall will become more prominent and in the foreground. For this reason, let’s be careful not to take up transactions in the short-term.


Daily Analysis  

Last week the price was closed at 1.089 and we expected a rise until “take profit-2” zone. The price followed this path and current level is 1.099. We will keep this expectation until the price is 1.12. As it was mentioned earlier, this price is the final target of bullish crab and retracement zone for the last down leg of the price. At 1.12 it is considered to be in the Premium zone.

Hourly Analysis

In the bulletin of the last week, we identified a discount zone for the current bullish trend. The price came into the zone and here reacted well. Price kept its bullish trend upwards and obeyed our expectations. Price started to lose its momentum as we are close the Premium zone in higher time frame but still there is not a change of character of the market. You can consider that we are in critical zones and start taking profits in the long positions as price increases.

As a result, we can consider short positions as long as we reach 1.12. But the position should be opened carefully by confirming your decision in lower time frame by a market structure break.


Daily Analysis

Daily chart still remains bullish as it has made a break of structure. But the present condition of bearish RSI divergence should warn us to be careful for a possible market change. As mentioned earlier this situation shows the unwillingness of buyers for making new bids. Imbalance under $1,890 can be a target for price retracements.

Hourly analysis

Last week we expected the price to reach a possible liquidity zone at $2,075 after filling the imbalance. The imbalance is removed in current case but due to the momentum decrease in higher time frame, price is now likely to take liquidity in $1,950. After this reversal, we can expect the increase of gold price.

Overview considering weekly chart

Although BoS is formed and did not change its character, lower time frames suggest us a possible reversal. Weekly candle represents an indecision for the price. Deeper price imbalances are present in the weekly chart. All different time frame evaluations support 1hr possible price path.