BITCOIN
Monthly analysis
Bitcoin opened the first red candle after touching the upper region, which is an important area as we mentioned last week in the monthly view.
Our strong resistance areas of $32,600 and $36,600, closes above these levels will move towards the $42,000 – $48,000 resistance, respectively. Before that, our expectation will be a recovery with some pullback.
Weekly analysis
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin had not yet had a weekly closing. In the current pre-closing situation, it shows bearish signs with correction levels starting with the engulfing candle.
The $22,100 region can be considered as a buy area. Considering the trend continuity, we can think the price will move upwards from this region.
Let’s not forget these pullbacks in the price are normal.
Daily Analysis
When we examine the daily chart, we see the structures formed are predominantly in a downward trend.
It may be thought the market structure will begin to draw the downward forms with the cutting of the region between the last peak and the bottom. First of all, unless there is a close below $26,800 and there is an increase to the $29,300 band, short selling transactions will increase in that area.
It is recommended you do not take drastic actions in that area.
Hourly Analysis
On the hourly analysis, even though the market structure has not been broken up as a result of some purchases after the last 3 flow movements, it continues to make high bottoms in itself.
Current support areas are at $27,107 and $26,800, while resistance is at $27,800.
After the last double bottom and 2.618 formation, I think the target determined by the arrow sign will go as long as it does not stay under the red shaded area.
Our analyses is not financial advice.
XAUUSD
Daily Analysis
As of March 23th, the daily chart still remains bullish in terms of market structure. In the evaluation of the last week, we pointed out the bearish RSI divergence, which is a possible sign of a reversal trend. Now, we have another confirmation in exponential moving average cross on the 1hr graph analysis. But it will be highlighted under hourly analysis section. The price of gold reacted once from the EMA200 level. As the price started declining again we may expect to reach the same level this week, which will also intersect weekly imbalance.
Hourly Analysis
The price couldn’t react $2,075, which is a liquidity level. Market structure break formed in the 1hr time frame. As the price was over the EMA200 in this time frame, now it remains under this EMA level, which supports the notion we are on a correction wave. The correction can reach down the 0.618 fib level on a bearish wave, which corresponds to a price of $1,900. At this level we should decide the possible price move.
Overview of the Weekly Chart
In conclusion, we now have a bearish 1hr trend in gold. This translates to the price can reach $1,900. Here we have to make observation in lower time frames. If the price keeps its downtrend, we have to keep our short position. In the case there is a market structure reversal on the 15 minute chart, we may expect another uptrend until the liquidation level at $2,075.
EURUSD
Daily Analysis
The EURUSD price is the same with last week’s price at 1.099. TP-2 target still exists for bullish crab harmonic pattern. We have somewhat lower RSI than last week’s level. This is a positive indicator for the price to reach TP-2 level. Price would want to reach the premium zone if that happens.
Hourly Analysis
The price keeps continuing the break of structure moves, which is the sign for bullish price continuation. The price formed a range after reaching the discount zone of the last bullish up leg. There is not an important deviation/break in the price. In this case, we should consider range formation.
Two important liquidity levels exist in the range. Reaching fib 0-1 levels will show us a possible LTF move of the price. If liquidity is taken under the fib 1 level by just a wick, this will be a sign for possible bullish move of the price.
Nihat Çetinkaya
https://twitter.com/nhtctnk
I’m a private trader of over 7 years, based in Istanbul.
All trading and research are my opinion, not investment advice.