Table of Contents
Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, short-term technical analysis)
Overview of BTC
This week as well, the stock indexes of gold, crude oil, and the United States fluctuated violently in a short period of time due to the ever-changing situation in Russia and Ukraine. Bitcoin was also moving along with them (inversely correlated with gold, correlated with stock indexes).
Although price action will continue to be a violent in the short term, I would like to stay calm knowing the movement is within a range ($30,000 ~ $40,000) described earlier at the weekly and daily levels.
Mid-term and long-term
↓ BTCUSD Monthly Candlestick Chart
Since we updated the monthly chart last week, let’s first recognize the environment at the monthly chart level.
Last month it was confirmed with a positive bar, but looking at the above figure, it seems likely that this month is a negative bar.
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
Last week, it was supported by the resistance zone of the horizon (white box near $33,000 in the figure), and was finally confirmed by the small upper wick positive line. I would like to pay a little attention to this continuous upper wick.
This week showed a temporary rise following the confirmation of candlesticks supported by last week’s resistance band (which can be linked to the gap filling of the US stock index, which showed similar movement as last Monday and pointed out in last week’s article). Even though price action was such, it was again rejected by the resistance band around $43,000. As mentioned above, ranging price action continues. Even if you are long from the bottom, it is better to humbly take profits.
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
Looking at the daily chart, it is easier to understand, and it can be seen the movement is within a range.
Although it is said to be in a range, the width of the range is narrowing, and we would like to consider the possibility that it is becoming a so-called narrowing wedge shape (devaluation of high prices and devaluation of low prices). Since only God knows “which” and “when” to exit, I would like to continue the basic approach of buying when the lower limit of the range (consolidation) is reached and selling when the upper limit of the range (consolidation) is reached.
The short term is often linked to the US index. Again, there are many violent movements correlating with US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 23:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression is it will get rejected at the resistance zone.
Short-term price movements are becoming narrower in price range (decrease in volatility), and it is difficult to recover when a loss is made, so the difficulty level seems to be gradually increasing. It is a difficult market, so I think it would be a good idea to wait until it becomes easy to handle (until the situation in Russia and Ukraine calms down).