Table of Contents
Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, short-term TA)
Overview of BTC
Continuing from last week, the stock indexes of Gold, Crude Oil and the United States have moved violently in a short period of time due to the ever-changing unrest in Russia and Ukraine. Bitcoin was also moving along with them (inversely correlated with gold, correlated with stock indexes).
Although price action is expected to continue to be volatile in the short term, I would like to keep in mind the movement is still within range ($30,000 to $ 40,000) described earlier at the weekly and daily levels.
Mid / Long term
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
This week’s weekly candles are likely to be confirmed by the positive lines that collect the consecutive upper wicks mentioned last week.
As mentioned at the beginning, the market ranging continues.
On the other hand, compared to the horizontal axis of box A mentioned earlier, it may be good to see the possibility the horizontal axis adjustment is finished and a short-term trend is likely to appear (a big move) from around next week. Specifically, the horizontal axis adjustment part of A in the above figure is 63 days for 9 bars per week, and the current range duration is 56 days for 8 bars per week.
If this week’s candlestick is confirmed on the positive line as it is, it may rise at this point, but on the other hand, it is not easy to turn the monthly candlestick positive and the upper price still shows heavy resistance. If it rises, look out for price movements around the monthly opening price of $43,000.
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
Looking at the daily level, it is easier to understand, and it can be seen that the movement is within a range.
Although it is called a range, the width of the range has narrowed further, and price movements have been coiling down. ($38,000 ~ $42,000). In addition to the above-mentioned adjustment on the horizontal axis, this stalemate in price movement is also one of the factors we would like to consider the possibility of an increase in volatility (big price move).
However, since only God knows “how” and “when” it will exit this range, I would like to continue the basic approach of buying when the lower limit of the range is reached and selling when the upper limit of the range is reached.
Short term
Even in the short term, it is often linked to the US index. Again, there are a lot of volatile movements correlating with US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression is that it will get rejected at the resistance level (note the summer time (US Daylight savings) has been applied to the opening hours of the market starting this week).
Short-term price movements are becoming narrower in price range (decrease in volatility), and it is difficult to recover when a loss is made, so the difficulty level seems to be gradually increasing. It is a difficult market, so it is a good idea to wait until it you grasp a sense of direction making it easier to make a move.