Table of Contents
Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, short-term technical analysis)
Overview of BTC
Bitcoin’s correlation with the US stock index is a little weaker than before this week as well as last week. (Be careful about changes in the environment.)
With the price rise in Bitcoin this week, market sentiment has improved and altcoins have been seen to be funded. (a standard move to rise slightly behind $BTC.)
On the fundamental side, it is also worth noting that the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG), which is developing $LUNA, bought about 11,700 BTC. Institutional investors’ spot buying trends can affect BTC prices, so keep an eye out.
Reference article ↓
Do Kwon co-founder’s tweet ↓
https://twitter.com/stablekwon/status/1503296630396645376
Mid-term and long-term
↓ BTCUSD Monthly Candlestick Chart
This week is April, and last month’s monthly bar was confirmed, and since it was the week of monthly bar updates, we will be aware of the environment.
Last month it was confirmed on the positive line, and it became the positive line for the second consecutive month. This month, the sun is currently on the positive line, and it has broken above the daily range, but it is important to note whether it will be out of the $48,000 point of the latest monthly wick (price range where 200MA is located at the daily level described later).
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
After last week’s weekly bar went out of range and confirmed on the positive line, this week it is likely to be confirmed on the small hidden line due to the influence of the monthly update (with profit confirmation).
As a future scenario that can be considered by looking at the weekly and monthly bars:
- It will continue to rise and rise to around $52,000 (next resistance)
- This week the market is in the range of $45,500 to $48,000.
- Settle down below $45,500 and return to range
the above 3 patterns can be considered.
Especially when the lunar bar turns negative, scenario (3) is fully conceivable, so it is necessary to observe each hour bar in a complex manner. It is very important to be able to determine the candlestick entity above the upper range of $45,500.
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
Looking at the daily level, although it was confirmed once it was out of the daily range, it showed a price movement that turned back at the 200MA (red line) of the daily bar. It seems one focus will be whether we can get out of this 200MA this week. Of course, there is a possibility we will continue to meet around here this week:
- Above the range limit of $45,500
- Without deterioration of supply and demand (deviation / FR)
- If the lower candlestick, such as a 4-hour candlestick, forms a round-up shape,
It seems better to refrain from taking a short position with a daily 200MA back. (If you do not meet these conditions, especially with (2), you may take a short position with the latest high of $48,000 as support.)
Short Term
In the short term, the correlation with the US index has become less, but the correlation still is there. Again, there are many volatile movements correlating with US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression is that it will stop at the resistance.
the US stock index continues to fall sharply, BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position. (And vice versa.)