Table of Contents
Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, short-term technical analysis, data analysis)
Overview of BTC
This week’s Bitcoin price has returned to its former range ($32,000- $ 45,000) by not being able to actually rise beyond the strong resistance of the 200MA on a daily basis and turning all monthly and weekly bars into hidden lines.
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
As mentioned at the beginning, this week is likely to be confirmed by a big shadow line.
In last week’s article,
Future scenarios that can be considered by looking at the weekly and monthly bars:
- Price will continue to rise to around $52,000 (next resistance)
- This week the market will range between $45,500 to $48,000.
- Settle below $45,500 and returned to previous range
3 patterns above can be considered.
Especially when the candle bar turns negative, scenario 3 is fully conceivable, so it is necessary to observe each hourly bar in a close manner. It is very important to be able to determine the candlestick movement above the upper range of $45,500.
But unfortunately, scenario 3 played out. That is, the current Bitcoin is returning to the previous range.
Even more difficult to long is the percentage of accounts in Binance’s global long positions is over 70%. The enemies for long positions are long positions, so unless this ratio decreases (to the 50% level), I don’t want to take a long position too aggressively. It is not possible to take a long position unless the long position is reduced due to the liquidations of loss cuts due to the fluctuation of the market price.
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↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
If you look at the daily level, you can see how it turned back neatly at the 200MA.
In last week’s article:
- Above the range limit of $ 45,500
- Without deterioration of supply and demand (dissociation / FR)
- If the lower candlestick, such as a four-hour candlestick, forms a round-up shape,
It seems better to refrain from taking a short position from the daily 200MA back. (If you do not meet these conditions, especially with 2, you may take a short position with the latest high of $48,000 as your backing.)
However, it did not meet all of 1, 2, and 3, so the point of how to make a position this week was to take the strategy in () (I also went around in the short position main).
I don’t think it’s necessary to take a position until the yellow line is rounded up or the lower limit of the range is reached. Also, since all the upper legs have changed to hidden lines, I will take the short position as the main strategy.
In the short term, the correlation with the US index has become less, but the correlation itself remains. Again, there are many violent movements that correlate with the US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression that it stops at the resistance or zone where it should stop.
If the US stock index continues to fall sharply, BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position (and vice versa).
↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart
If you look at the lower candlesticks per 8 hours, you can see the parallel channels as shown in the above figure.
Even when considering the channel, it is located in the center, so it seems better to wait until near the lower limit of the channel if it is a long position, not a scene where you take a position positively.
↓ BTCUSD 4-hour candlestick chart
Furthermore, the fact that it was confirmed to be below 200MA at the 4-hour level was also a tough development for the longers.