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Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, short-term technical analysis)
Overview of BTC
Until last week, the stock indexes of Gold, Crude Oil and the US moved violently in a short period of time due to the ever-changing situation in Russia and Ukraine. But this week they showed relatively calm movement (the situation remains tense).
Bitcoin’s correlation to the US stock index is a bit weaker this week than it used to be (beware of changes in the environment).
Even though for the short-term showing volatile price movement, I always want to keep stay level-headed as it is only movement within a range ($30,000 ~ $ 45,000) described earlier when looking at the weekly and daily levels.
Mid-term and Long-term
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
Last week’s weekly chart was confirmed with a positive line that would recover the consecutive upper wicks mentioned earlier. This week, following the confirmation of the positive line last week, it is likely the positive line will continue to be confirmed. The current price range has a $45,000 upper limit on the daily/weekly range, so it is important to break out of this range. If it does not break through, the ranging market will continue.
↓ BTCUSD Monthly Candlestick Chart
Another point of interest is the lunar bar has changed from the hidden line to the positive line, and the lunar bar in March may be confirmed soon, so I would like to take a close look at the attack and resistance of the price range around here. If I try to go down once before the monthly bar is confirmed, I am thinking of taking a long position with the monthly opening price of around $43,000.
Last week, “The horizontal axis adjustment is over, and the possibility a short-term trend is likely to appear (a big move) may be seen soon from next week.” However, while considering the possibility, if a trend appears, it should not be easy to have a contrarian short position.
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
Looking at the daily chart, we can see that it is currently at the upper limit of the range.
In the short term, the correlation with the US index has become less, but the correlation itself is still there. Again, there are many volatile movements correlating with US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, my impression is that it will meet resistance at that zone where it should stop climbing.
We didn’t take a lot of positions last week (see previous article), but this week we have $45,000 attack and resistance, weekly and monthly updates, so let’s take a positive look at the short term as we see the potential for higher volatility.
As for this week, the short term was a painful price move for shorts. (Price movements in a clearly different trend from last week.) There is no feeling of overheating where the divergence of FR and cash / futures will rise, and it will gradually rise, which is a common movement when Bitcoin is strong. If you take it, you tend to lose money, so be careful. (I’m only holding long positions now.)