Table of Contents
Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, short-term technical analysis, data analysis)
Overview of BTC
BTC, which came back to former range ($32,000~$45,000) last week, has begun to test the lower end of the range.
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
As mentioned above, BTC is aiming for the lower end of the range and is likely to be confirmed in the shadows this week. The wick tip stopped at the candlestick trend line (described later) on the lower time axis.
It should be noted that April has passed the middle stage and May, which is famous for ‘SELL IN MAY’, is approaching (this so-called anomaly, don’t underestimate it).
Last week I mentioned,
“It’s even harder to go long because the percentage of Binance’s global long-position accounts is over 70%. Long-position enemies are long-positions, so unless this percentage decreases (into the 50% range), I don’t want to take a long position too aggressively. I don’t want to take a long position unless the long position is reduced due to the liquidation of loss cuts based on market price fluctuation.”
However, one of the factors making it difficult to increase is the ratio of long positions is still high.
https://twitter.com/btc_status/status/1515662477513527297?s=20&t=qDage56do_v03kRIXRvVRw
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
Looking at the daily chart, it stops at the trend line-like place mentioned above. Of course, even if it breaks there, it can be a resistance such as the lower limit of the range below it, so be careful not to make a short circuit just because it is broken.
Last week I mentioned,
“I don’t think it’s necessary to take a position until the yellow line is rounded up or the lower limit of the range is reached. Also, since all the upper legs have turned to the hidden line, I will mainly take a short position.”
As I said, I didn’t take a lot of positions last week, but this week I’ve reached the round-up line of the yellow line & I’ve reached the lower limit of the range, so I’m thinking of aiming to build a long position. Even if the trend line is temporarily broken, it is possible to try the lower limit of the range and return it with a wick.
Short Term
In the short term, the correlation with the US index has become less, but the correlation itself remains. Again, volatility is high with the correlation with US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression that it stops at the horizon or zone where it should hold.
If the US stock index continues to fall sharply, BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position (and vice versa.)
Short-term volatility is declining day by day, and it takes time to recover if you incur a loss, refraining from taking a short-term trade is an option (I do).