Table of Contents
Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, short-term technical analysis, data analysis)
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq Composite Index (US100)
Overview of BTC
BTC, which returned to its former range ($32,000- $45,000) from the week before last, showed a move to test the lower limit of the range and then stayed at the lower limit of the range. I rarely trade these situations because the monthly upside has turned negative and the upside has continued to be heavy where volatility has diminished. I want to be aware of not taking a position is also a trade. Also, since the Nasdaq Composite Index is in a downward trend again, TA of this is posted below.
↓ BTCUSD Monthly Candlestick Chart
As mentioned at the beginning, this month is likely to be confirmed by the shadowed line. I think I don’t need to take a position this week because there are only a few days left this month.
Again, I would like to keep in mind April is almost over and May, which is familiar with “SELL IN MAY,” is approaching (this so-called anomaly, don’t underestimate it).
The week before last I posted,
“It’s even harder to go long because the percentage of Binance’s global long-position accounts is over 70%. Long-position enemies are long-positions, so unless this percentage decreases (to the 50% range), I don’t want to take a long position too aggressively. I don’t want to take a long position unless long positions are reduced due to liquidations from loss cuts through fluctuations of the market price.”
However, one of the factors making it difficult is the increase of the ratio of long positions is still high. (repost)
https://twitter.com/btc_status/status/1518199186973687809?s=20&t=u6KoYrxNeFfTqbi-RoHv9Q
↓ BTCUSD Daily Candlestick Chart
At the daily level, it is supported at the lower limit of the parallel channel. Moreover, there is a white box underneath, and if this area can be supported with a lower wick, there is still the possibility of aiming for the channel’s upper limit again.
Of course, even if it breaks that, there are many white boxes under it that can be support such as the lower limit of the range, so be careful not to go short just because a support gets broken.
Short Term
In the short term, the correlation with the US index has become less, but the correlation itself exists. Again, there are several violent movements that correlate with US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression is that it should be supported at the horizon or zone where support is.
If the US stock index continues to fall sharply, BTC will be entangled, so it may be better to refrain from holding a long position (and vice versa).
Short-term volatility is declining day by day, and it takes time to recover if you incur a loss, so refraining from short-term trading is an option (I do).
I would like to emphasize it is not an ideal scenario to take a long position overall.
TA of US100
Since the US100 is showing a decline again, I have briefly illustrated a box where there is likely to be support if the decline continues. Since BTC is often correlated, it is inevitable to observe the price action when the Nasdaq Composite Index falls to these support levels.