Table of Contents
Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, & short-term TA, and data analysis)
TA of the Nasdaq Composite Index (US100)
Overview of BTC
BTC, which has returned its former price range ($32,000~$45,000) the other day, showed a move to test the lower limit of the range and holding there. I continued to trade very little as the lunar bar turned negative and the upside continued to show heavy resistance with declining volatility. I want to be aware not taking a position is also a trade. Also, the Nasdaq Composite Index is on a downward trend again, so I would like to pay close attention to it together with the “SELL IN MAY” concept.
↓ BTCUSD Monthly Candlestick Chart
Since the monthly charts have been updated, we will start monthly awareness monitoring. April was confirmed by a hidden line.
As mentioned at above, this month is the familiar “SELL IN MAY” (so-called anomaly, don’t underestimate it).
The initial move is aimed at the top, but I would like to consider the possibility the monthly bars will change to the hidden line in the future and the current price range will become the upper wick of the hidden bar.
If you want to try below, consider building a long position in the white box price range. Specifically, between $35,000 and $30,000. Whether or not a long position can be built depends on the behavior of short-term legs in that price range. If it slowly falls without a big shadow line at the 1–5-minute level and without clearing the long position, the construction of the long position should be forgotten. On the other hand, if you put in a big shadow line and a wick and it shows movement that seems to have settled a long position, you may consider building a long position.
It should be kept in mind long-position enemies are long-positions, and the fact the proportion of long-position enemies is still high from the week before last may be one of the factors making it difficult for the price to rise.
It is still assumed the market price will range, but keep in mind if the US stock index falls sharply, BTC will often fall due with a short time lag.
In the short term, the correlation with the US index has lessened, but the correlation itself remains. Again, there many violent movements correlating with the US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression is it should stop at the horizon or zone.
If the US stock index continues to fall sharply, BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position. Again, this month is the “SELL IN MAY” month, so be careful.
Short-term volatility is declining day by day, and it takes time to recover if you incur a loss, so refraining from short-term trading is an option (I do).
I would like to emphasize it is not a scenario to take a positive position as a whole.
TA of the US100
Since the US100 is showing a decline again, I have briefly illustrated a box that is likely to show support if the decline continues. Since BTC is often correlated, it is inevitable to observe the price action when the Nasdaq Composite Index falls to these support levels.
It is unknown at which side it will hold at, so I would like to pay close attention to the short-term candle movements in this white box (support).