Table of Contents
Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, short-term TA, data analysis)
TA of the Nasdaq Composite Index (US100)
Overview of BTC
This month is literally a “Sell in May” month, and while the US stock index is still declining, BTC has been ranging since last week’s decline without hitting lows. Currently, I feel it is okay to look a little longer to next week.
I want to trade with calm and faith based on charts while watching the movement of the US100.
Please also note this article emphasizes the order of thinking, unlike usual, and describes it in the order of weekly → monthly.
↓ BTC / USD weekly candlestick chart
This week was a move within the range without breaking last week’s lows. It seems it will be confirmed by the hidden line this week, but from experience, it seems it is okay to go around with the assumption of the positive line next week. I think it will be a positive line with a little wick. It is a judgment in view of the situation BTC is enduring this low without breaking the latest low as the US stock index declines.
↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart
Also, this month’s lunar bar is likely to be confirmed by the big shadow line. This month’s monthly bar will close in about a week, so let’s think about the monthly bar for June next month. My policy is to take a long position with the lower wick of the hidden line in May only when the initial movement of the lunar leg is lower. This is the basic idea of candlesticks.
Of course, it may be a positive line without a lower wick, but I think the possibility is extremely low, especially at the monthly level. It will be clear if you look at the past lunar bars on the left side of the above figure.
Short term
In the short term, the correlation with the US index is strengthening. Again, there are several violent movements correlating with the US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression is it will stop at support.
If the US stock index continues to fall sharply, BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position, but holding an easy position and a sense of affordability.
TA of the US100
↓ US100 daily chart
As usual, I think the US100 is in a downtrend, so I have briefly illustrated a box where it is likely to have support if the downtrend continues. Since BTC is often correlated, it is inevitable to observe the price action when the Nasdaq Composite Index falls to these support levels.
It is unknown where support will hold, so I would like to pay close attention to the short-term candle movements in this white support area.
However, it is certain the price range is approaching, which is likely to show a rebound.
Specifically, it is the daily 200EMA / 200MA and the horizontal box overlapping it. In particular, it can be seen from the above figure where the 200EMA and 200MA are points where conscious buys can be made, as evidenced in the past crash during the ‘corona shock.’
This is also one of the grounds where BTC’s monthly bar next month may show a positive candle.