Table of Contents
Overview of BTC and ETH (mid-term, long-term, and short-term TA & Data Analysis)
TA of the Nasdaq Composite Index (US100)
Overview of BTC
In continuation to last week, this month literally seems to be “Sell in May”.
The US stock index turned down again, and BTC also fell.
It is still unknown where it will stop, but I would like to trade with calm and faith based on the charts while observing the movement of the US100.
I will write in connection with review of the trade I actually made last week.
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
The monthly legs do not need to be shown, and the hidden lines continue.
BTC showed a decline linked to the US stock index, pierced the old white box, but returned on a wick. Even if price continues to fall, it seems the range will be set around here for a while and the horizontal axis will be adjusted, rather than the image of just falling as it is. If you want to show a breakout, you might want to look up to around $33,000 in the box above.
I was able to build a short-term long position on the lower wick, which is the first reason.
From two weeks ago,
“If it continues to fall, I would like to consider building a long position in the white box price range. Specifically, around $30,000. Whether or not a long position can be built depends on the behavior of short-term legs in that price range. If it falls slowly without making a big shadow line at the 1–5-minute level and without clearing the long position, the construction of the long position should be forgotten. If you put it on and it shows movement that seems to have settled on the long position, you may consider building a long position.”
I repeatedly stated the above, and it ended up being exactly the situation.
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart in price range
In addition, it was a likely situation to show a rebound in the short term based on the price range as seen from the range of declines in the past (Reason for having a long position shown in #2).
I would like to take a position in such an easy-to-understand area while continuing to be aware of the down market.
↓ ETHUSDT Daily Candlestick Chart
As mentioned above, BTC set a new low with a wick, but ETH stopped at the box level as if it were conscious of it. (Reason for having a long position #3.)
Short Term
In the short term, the correlation with the US index is strengthening. Again, there are several violent movements correlating with the US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high.
If the US stock index continues to fall sharply, BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position with an easy position and a sense of affordability. Again, this month is still the “Sell in May” month, so be careful.
TA of US100
Last week price movement reached the support area I had shown in advance, and even though it broke through it, it came back on a wick.
The US100 continues to be on a downtrend trend, so a simple illustration of a support area that is likely to be supported at if the downtrend continues. Since BTC is often linked to the US100, it is inevitable to observe the price action when the Nasdaq Composite Index falls to these areas.
It is unknown at which side it will stop at, so I would like to pay close attention to the short-term candle movements in this white box.
