Overview of BTC (long-term and short-term TA)
Overview of BTC
BTC has been in an even tighter range this week than last. Volatility is dwindling and so is the so-called “summer market”, so I don’t think it’s necessary to force a position construction. The contents are focused on reviewing last week and this week.
Due to the recent upgrade of Ethereum, spot demand for ETH has increased, so be careful not to take an easy contrarian short position. This is because there are many things that must not go against the market, which is driven by actual products. This can be said for both BTC and ETH, so it’s good to remember. In a little more detail, there is an increase in position making, such as ETH spot buying positions and ETH time-limited futures selling positions (positions aimed at acquiring ETHPoW, please check the details on your own.) may also be a factor. When ETH is strong, BTC is often correlated and strong.
In addition, to reiterate, rather than a reversal of the long-term trend, we believe the market is still in a range a widened range.
It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is that BTC cannot be used solely to make any judgement alone. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.
Monetary easing has ended and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term buying position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to attack. (repost of last week)
↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart
This week, it showed movement as predicted in last week’s article, and the monthly chart turned positive.
Last week I stated,
“The month has changed and it’s August, so I’ll start recognizing the environment from the usual monthly chart. Last month (July) was confirmed as a positive line, and this month it’s temporarily a negative line. If there is a positive change after this, we can expect the price to rise to the upper white resistance box of $26,000. If we are aiming for a positive turnaround scenario, we should go long on the back of the white support box of $22,500, which has recently shown a rebound. The daily level is described below. It doesn’t look bad to go long with that as a backing.” A long position around $22,500 is pretty easy to get here, and it’s the only place I’ve taken a position this week. Specifically, it is easy to understand if you verify the upper and lower candles in combination with the indicated part of the daily chart below.
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
Even at the weekly level, the movement was roughly in line with last week’s forecast.
In last week’s article I stated,
“As usual, the weekly chart around the 200MA is still a battlefield, and if this week’s chart is confirmed at the 200MA or higher, I think we will be able to build a long position next week as well.”
Also, “On July 31st, as I’m writing this article, the monthly chart for this month will close. If this week’s candlestick closes above the weekly 200MA, we can build long positions against it from next week onwards. Also, when looking at the monthly level, if it moves to test the weekly 200MA, it can become a lower shadow of the monthly candle, so I would like to aim to build a long position next month,” but we plan to continue with this policy.
It basically played out as so. It took six weekly bars, but once the price rises above the weekly 200MA, the weekly positive line is likely to confirm a candlestick. In other words, this weekly 200MA is likely to continue functioning as one of the tally indicators when constructing positions. I said it would take time, but that includes the impression the horizontal axis at the weekly level is reliable to some extent.
On the other hand, once again, if we consider a slightly longer time axis, we will need to adjust the horizontal axis to some extent, whether it reverses or continues to fall, and until then the market should continue in a range. Therefore, I do not think that this short-term range break has turned the trend, and that the range width may expand or recur. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to reverse. I think we are still in the process of making the horizontal axis.