Table of Contents
BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term Technical Analysis)
For some time now, I have been writing, “Again, I believe that we are still in a range, rather than a reversal of a longer time horizon trend.” This week was a week in which we were reminded of this. It is important to keep this awareness in mind and to make humble profit-taking decisions frequently.
The difficulty in the current market is that it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.
Since monetary easing has come to an end and funds are being withdrawn from the market, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to go on the offensive. (Reiterated)
↓BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
As I stated at the beginning of this article, I write repeatedly every week.
As I repeat, “Again, if we consider a longer time horizon, whether a reversal or a continued decline occurs, some degree of horizontal axis adjustment is necessary, and until then, the market should remain range-bound. Therefore, I do not consider the short-term range break to be a trend reversal, but rather a possible range expansion or reversion. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to turn. We believe we are still in the process of building a horizontal axis.” This was a remarkable week for us.
Specifically, it failed to cross the $26,000 resistance box and turned around and fell. As long as the price remains in a transitory rise, it is only a range market. Be aware that the human brain tends to have a convenient bias that when prices go up, they will continue to go up.
Since the monthly chart has also turned negative, on a monthly level, we do not want to take too many long positions with respect to this month. The decline stopped just before $20,000, which is a strong resistance box for once. We do not know what will happen next, but the following two possible future scenarios and points are currently possible.
- A move in the $20,000-$26,000 or $18,000-$26,000 range, which would create a narrowing of the range, i.e., a triangle or a rounding up of the range.
- The opening price of $23,300 of the February session will probably be positive or negative, and the price movement in that price range should be watched carefully.
↓ Four-hour candlestick chart of BTCUSD
Let’s observe a little lower time frame. Then we can see parallel channels and trend lines as shown in the chart above. Although the horizontal boxes are the main feature, these are also good points to be aware of when looking at the chart.