Table of Contents
BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term Technical Analysis)
For some time now, I have been writing, “Again, I believe that we are still in a range, rather than a reversal of a longer time horizon trend.” This week was a week in which we were reminded of this. It is important to keep this awareness in mind and to make humble profit-taking decisions frequently.
The difficulty in the current market is that it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.
Since monetary easing has come to an end and funds are being withdrawn from the market, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to go on the offensive. (Reiterated)
↓BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, I write repeatedly every week, “Again, if we consider a longer time horizon, whether it reverses or continues to fall, some horizontal axis adjustment is necessary, and the market should remain range-bound until then. Therefore, I do not consider the short-term range break to be a trend reversal, but rather a possible range expansion or reversion. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to turn. We believe we are still in the process of building a horizontal axis.” This is what I felt this week as well as last week.
This is partly a reiteration, but I plan to stand by this policy for the next month and beyond.
Last week, I said, “Since the monthly chart also turned negative, I don’t want to take too many long positions for this month on a monthly level.” I was actually right this week in taking such a stand. This is a concept that I would like to keep in mind as I will be able to apply it in the future. The idea is to not go against the upper leg.
The decline has stopped at the $20,000 area, which is a strong resistance box for now. What happens next remains to be seen, but the possible future positive scenarios and points now are “a move in the $20,000-$26,000 or $18,000-$26,000 range, with a range-breaking move, i.e., a triangle or a rounding up.” In the This is a scenario in which the recent lows are not broken, so if the lows are broken, do not take a long position by force, but rather aim for a second bottom. Incidentally, since I do not think the recent low will be broken this time, I will continue to target long positions for a short-term rebound over the next month or so.
↓US100 weekly candlestick chart
The US100 is in the process of falling as shown in the chart above. There is a white box just below at around $12,300 that is likely to rebound at one point, but we believe that we should be prepared for a decline to around $11,000, another level below that. This is because there are several horizontal boxes in that area, and the 200MA is also present, so a rebound is highly likely. In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is also unlikely to rebound, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch this as well.