BTC Overview (Long- and Short-Term TA)
Overview of US100
This week’s article confirms the market environment and reviews August.
It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is BTC cannot be used solely to make any judgments. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.
Monetary easing is once over and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term buying position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the attack. (repost)
↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart
This week August ends and September begins, so I will start with the usual environmental awareness. The monthly candlestick of August became a negative line wrapped up by the positive line of the previous month, July, in the form of candlesticks. Once again, I realized the overall situation is a downward trend, and on a slightly shorter time axis, the market is in a range.
We believe if we take a long position after this month, we will be able to back the recent low near $18,000. If the price makes a new low, the next white support box near $14,000 will come into view.
↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart
Let’s take a little look back. I tried to surround the August period of BTC’s lower candle 8-hour candle. There are two important points here.
The first is the short-term movement in August was a state of declining volatility, the so-called ‘summer market,’ which can be clearly seen in comparison with the period before that. That’s what it means. It will be clear even if you compare it with July to the left of it. What you have to be careful about in such a market environment is you should limit the places and times you touch and reduce the number of times you touch. This is because if volatility is reduced this much, it will be difficult to recover immediately if a loss is made. Limiting the place and time to touch specifically refers to trading only at the timing of weekly updates. I also went about my trading with such policy.
Second, don’t go against the upper leg. In other words, after the price of BTC falls below the monthly opening price of $23,307 and becomes a negative candle, the price range when taking a long position is quite small, coupled with the reduction in volatility, so you should refrain from taking a long position. I touched on this many times in the articles in August, but this time I would like you to verify it against the actual chart again. In this situation, except for short-term scalping, you should be able to see it is quite difficult to trade only with long positions.
Of course, it is now September, and looking at the weekly level, there is a possibility the price range is at the lower end of the range, so my current thinking is that I would like to take a long position around $18,000. The point at which the decline in the US100, which is described later, will be supported is also key.
↓ US100 daily candlestick chart
The US100 is in the middle of a decline as shown above. After seeing a short-term rally from the white support box around $12,300, I think we should be prepared for another drop down to around $11,000. This is because there are multiple horizontal support boxes and the presence of the 200MA, so it is likely the price will rebound. In any case, as long as the US100 does not rebound, BTC is unlikely to rebound, so as I always write, it is necessary to look at this as well.