BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA)
Overview of the US100
BTC showed a short-term gain this week, turning positive not only on the weekly candle but also for the monthly. I will describe the way of thinking about how to take a position in the future.
It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is that BTC cannot used solely to make any judgments. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.
Monetary easing is once over and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term buying position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the attack. (repost)
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
This week, the initial move turned positive, and the weekly chart is likely to settle on a positive line.
Looking at it again from a macro perspective, the current price range is the highest price in 2017, and you can see this area is a place where selling and buying can be evenly matched.
Therefore, at this point, it is important to assume the market is range bound. Specifically, the image is to buy at around $18,000 and sell at around $26,000 or less.
The basics of a ranging market are “buy low, sell high”, and in this example, selling at $18,000 is not a good idea. If this low is broken down in the future, it will need to form a consolidating triangle-like shape to create a horizontal axis.
In last week’s article I stated, “we believe if we take a long position after this month, we will be able to back the recent low of around $18,000.” At present, we want to take a long position at $18,000 as our backing because of the possibility of support there.
↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart
In addition, the monthly candle turned positive. Therefore, as a future policy for this month, it would be better to take a position with the opening price of the monthly candlestick at around $20,000 under the assumption this month will be positive.
Overview of the US100
↓ US100 daily candlestick chart
The US100’s decline temporarily stopped, showing a short-term rebound. Judging only from the chart, it seems there will be a struggle in this price range.
It has recently seen a short-term rally at the white support box around $12,300, but if it continues to fall, I think we can be prepared for another drop to around $11,000. This is because there are multiple horizontal support boxes and the presence of the 200MA, so it is likely the price will bounce back. In any case, as I always mention, it is difficult for BTC to rebound unless the US100 rebounds, so we need to look at this as well. When taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of this index as well.