Weekly Market Update – 10-10-2022


BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
XRP Miscellaneous
US100 Overview


BTC Overview

Although it was good the weekly update moved up in tandem with the rebound in the US 100 and US 30, it has since continued to move higher. As mentioned last week, this gives the strong impression the market is enduring the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without much correlation. At the same time, there are few signs of a stand-alone rally. The market continues to be range-bound at the moment.

Altcoin XRP is charting well, so please read my brief analysis of it this week.

The difficulty in the current market is it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a composite manner.

Since monetary easing has come to an end, funds have been pulled out of the market and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no rush to build a long time horizon buying position. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offensive. (Repost)


↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

As we saw last week, the price rose with the weekly update, but was unable to exceed the recent high of $20,500 and is now showing a move back to around the monthly opening price of $19,400. As usual, the market continues to be both firm on the downside and heavy on the upside.


↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

The above chart shows the monthly price as of the writing of this article, which is just in the price range of the monthly attack and defense points. Next week, it will be interesting to see if this area can be defended. Since the lower monthly leg is barely positive, I still want to continue targeting long positions, but if next week’s price action seems to reduce the likelihood of a positive monthly leg for this month, I have decided to discontinue that policy. In that case, as I wrote last week, we will need to consider whether we can pivot from $18,000. We will look at that policy decision in conjunction with the movement of the US100 and US30.


The only basic policy, as I wrote last week is:


“BTC is

  1. US stocks (US100 or US30) appear to be resisting the decline.
  2. The short-term price correlation between US100 and BTC is becoming less
  3. BTC and Gold tend to go up toward the end of the year.


from the three points above, I am going to try to take a long position against the recent low of $18,000 for once this month. If the price breaks down a little, I will try to buy when it is down once. If the price drops to a lower low with a big drop, I will stop trying to take a long position.”


I would like to stand around with this policy.


↓ XRPUSDT daily candlestick chart

Let me analyze the XRP chart because of its better structure compared to BTC.

The first thing I find the structure better is…

  1. The price is above the daily 200 MA (recently exceeded)
  2. Appears to be breaking out of the blue trendline
  3. Once it bounced off the resistance box and appears to be retrying to break through it.

That is why.

It appears a Ripple event called Swell will be held in November. This event has been held many times in the past, and on those occasions, XRP has often tended to rise in price until just before the event.

For these reasons, we would continue to target long positions next week.


US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart


First, a recap of last week’s article and the actual price action is in order.


Last week’s article pointed out, “there is a strong possibility of a rebound in that area ($11,000) due to the presence of several horizontal support boxes and also the weekly 200 MA. Since the monthly update is also due this week, we will be watching for a short-term rebound and a positive monthly turnaround in this price area in the next week or so.

Of course, there is a possibility the price could open the week lower, but there is a white support box (around $10,500) just below that will serve as a resistance zone, and I think the monthly leg will eventually turn positive.” I wrote.


At the beginning of the week, the price moved in line with this view. However, a large negative line has since appeared, and the upside is heavy. However, if the price continues to fall, we will need to consider the downside potential to the resistance zone below the current price level. We will keep this in mind this week and watch price movements closely.


In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, we need to watch this one as well. When taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of the index as well.