Weekly Market Update – 10-17-2022


BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)

BTC Trading Practices


BTC Overview

The recent trend of the market’s movement continues to give the strong impression it has been enduring the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without much correlation, while there being few signs of a stand-alone upturn. The market continues to be range-bound with limited upside potential.

I took one long position this week, which I will focus on as a case study.

The difficulty in the current market is it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offensive. (Repost)


↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

The monthly leg has turned negative, the weekly leg is also confirmed by a negative line, and the upside is still seeing resistance. Since the monthly leg has turned negative once, we want to refrain from building long positions and it is time to look at the possibility of a slight downside in terms of the horizontal axis. On the other hand, the monthly leg is still within the range to turn positive, so we would like to continue to build long positions around the white support box directly below.


The basic policy as I wrote previously is,


“With BTC,

(1) US stocks (US100 or US30) appear to be withstanding the decline.

(2) The short-term price correlation between the US100 and BTC is lessening.

(3) BTC and gold tend to rise toward the end of the year.


based on the above three factors, we are going to try to take a long position at the recent low of $18,000 for a while this month. If the price breaks slightly below this level, I will try to buy the dip once. If the price drops below $18,000 plus a big drop to a new low, I will stop trying to take long positions.”


I would like to stand on such policy.


Overview of the US100

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

Last month, I stated, “The beginning of the week this week was in line with this view. However, it has since made a large negative line, and the upside is heavy. Since the monthly leg is still positive, we are still looking for the price to rise again at the end of the week based on that assumption, but if it continues to fall, we will need to consider the downside to the resistance area below the current price area. We will keep this in mind this week and watch the price action closely.” “This week, the price tested lower, reversed at the white support box, and fell again. (The point of this reversal was the CPI rebound, which is discussed below.)

We will continue to observe price movements next week with the same chart setup. The key point to watch is whether the price will reverse again at the white support box where it showed a short-term rebound last week, or whether the price will break even lower.


In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as often stated, we need to watch this one as well. When taking a position in BTC, remember to consider the movement of the index.


BTC Trading Practices

First of all, we are trading on the assumption there will be an economic indicator, CPI, at 21:30 (JST) on this day, which is likely to result in large volatility. The recent trend has been the release of economic indicators tending to increase volatility in the exchange rate, stock prices, indices, and BTC.

  1. ↑ First, the chart setup just prior to the long position is illustrated above. It displays a horizontal support box from a while ago and horizontal resistance lines (two light blue lines).

  1. ↑ Observing the previous chart from a weekly macro perspective, it looks as such. The price area around $18,153 is a long point because it is the tip of last week’s wicks and also the weekly wick zone.

  1. ↑ This is around 20:30 JST on the hourly before the CPI. If it continues to fall, I am considering building a long position at the lower horizontal line OR horizontal support box.

  1. Finally, the CPI at 21:30 JST showed a violent drop and rebounded at the pre-drawn horizontal line, keeping in mind the market opening in New York at 22:30, aiming for a second bottom entry instead of the bottom.

  1. BTC at around 22:25 just before NY opening time. Assuming a double bottom & upside reversal into NY around this area, I placed my stop loss a little below the tip of the most recent wick and built a long position.

  1. ↑ It then reversed at 22:30 at the New York market venue with an initial lower wick showing a rise.

  1. ↑ Profit-taking was done in stages, but all of this long position was taken at the horizontal box. These are the trades I made this week and what I was thinking at the time.