Table of Contents
Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, & short-term TA and Data Analysis)
TA of the Nasdaq Composite Index (US100)
Overview of BTC
After all, this month seems to be literally end up being “Sell in May”.
The US stock index turned down again and BTC also fell.
It is unknown where it will stop, but I would like to trade with calm and faith based on the charts while watching the movement of the US100.
↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart
↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart
As mentioned at the beginning, this month is May, which is synonymous with “Sell in May”.
Last week I said, “We are aiming for the top of the first move, but we also want to consider the possibility the monthly leg will switch to the hidden line and the current price range will become the upper wick of the hidden line.” Both the monthly and weekly bars are likely to be confirmed by hidden lines.
If the lunar bar remains hidden, it is better to refrain from holding a long position until near the end of the month. It is unknown where the US stock index will stop declining.
Again, if it continues to fall, I would like to consider building a long position in the price range of the white box. Specifically around $30,000. Whether or not a long position can be built depends on the behavior of short-term legs in that price range. If it slowly falls without a big shadow line at the 1–5-minute level and without clearing the long position, the construction of the long position should be forgotten. On the other hand, if you put on a big shadow line and a beard and show a movement that seems to have settled a long position, you may consider building a long position.
It should be kept in mind long-position enemies are long-positions, and the fact the proportion of long-position enemies is still high from the week before last may be one of the factors making it difficult for the price to rise.
As with last week, we are still assuming a ranging market, but keep in mind if the US stock index falls sharply, $BTC will often fall with no time lag.
Also, altcoins have fallen sharply and I don’t think it’s time to buy altcoins.
In the short term, the correlation with the US index is strengthening. Again, there are many violent movements correlating with the US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high.
If the US stock index continues to fall sharply, BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position. Again, this month is the “Sell in May” month, so be careful.
TA of the US100
Since the US100 continues to show a decline, a simple illustration of a box is used as it is likely to stop if the decline continues. Since BTC is often correlated, it is inevitable to observe the price action when the Nasdaq Composite Index falls to these box levels.
It is unknown at which side it will stop, so I would like to pay close attention to the short-term candle movements in this white box.
By the way, last week’s transient rise was a stop-loss move for the new quick-trigger short position, which I saw after it broke the box near $13,000. Despite the down market, the quick-trigger (rear ride) position may be hunted in the short term, so be careful. If it’s not selling from the top, it’s probably safer to take a long position to get a rebound in the white box.