Category: Overview

Contents

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA and Policy)

 

This week (1/9 – 1/15) was the most volatile in recent memory for BTC, a change from last week’s fully reduced volatility.

Although it is not clear whether the trend has changed from a downtrend to an uptrend, the market sentiment has improved and may be shifting to a situation where it is easier to get money into the market than before. In other words, we may be prepared to take positions in altcoins other than BTC. Volatility has also comeback somewhat, so I will be looking to take positions in the next week or so.

It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment at any given time. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner. Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to be in a hurry to build buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offensive. (repost)

 

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

This week (1/9 – 1/15) BTC rose quite significantly, as I mentioned at the beginning of this article. There are three main things to keep in mind of the current situation and our strategy going forward.

 

(1) BTC’s temporary bottom seems to be around the recent low of $16,000. It appears to have made a double bottom over a period of about two months.

(2) The pattern is as follows: The price is expected to move up to the next level. Rather than continuing to rise, the price is expected to make a temporary adjustment. The following two patterns are assumed, which are often seen in BTC, and are similar to an inverted triple move. The pattern is for the price to push to $18,000 or $19,000. The monthly and annual charts are positive, so we would like to go long at the point where the price pushes.

It will be interesting to see if it also retests the daily 200MA.

 

(3) It cannot be called a trend reversal quite yet.

This is because, when observed dispassionately from the chart, it has just returned to within the range of the pre-FTX shock levels.

 

↓ BTCUSDTPerp most recent OI (open interest)

Also, looking at the OI change in the above chart, the most recent increase is due to short covering. The amount of open interest (OI) is decreasing as the price rises. In other words, this is a transitory rise due to short positions being closed out, and without an increase in new open interest, it may be difficult to maintain the rise any longer.

 

The setup of the US100 was unchanged from last week, so I have omitted it from this report.

Contents
BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
US100 Overview

Chart-wise, volatility is lessening more and more, and we are at the halfway point in the price range, so we think it is best not to rush now, but to trade when the chart is in better shape. As for this week (1/2 – 1/8), I have not traded BTC at all, as I did last week. The rest is due to the market. If I dare to write about this month of January, I would like to be careful of this falling price anomaly.

To begin, the declining volatility can be clearly seen in the chart below.

This chart of Bitcoin Historical Volatility shows the current level of volatility is much lower than it was a few years ago. In anticipation of lower volatility, one could use options trading to create a short straddle (sell calls and puts), but there would be no need to force the trade. Rather, it may be better to position in the direction of increased volatility, albeit counter-intuitively, now.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner. Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

Volatility is declining and short-term trades are difficult, but as always, once in place, I don’t think it is a bad option to take a long position on the support of the recent low around the $16,000 break. If prices fall over the next week or so, you could try to buy against that area.

Now all we need to do is pay a little attention to the anomaly I wrote about in my last article, that historically, BTC often falls 10% or more in January.

 

US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100 continues to be range-bound this week (1/2 – 1/8). The setup will continue to be viewed as it is. The US100 continued its downward trend from last week, but clearly turned around at support at the lower end of the range in the white support box.

↓ US100 4-hour candlestick chart

This can be clearly seen in the lower 4-hour time frame. These areas are short-term long points. The behavior in this price range should be watched over the next week and beyond.

It does not have much to do with the movement of BTC this week (1/2 – 1/8), but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always mention, it is necessary to watch this as well. Remember when taking a position in BTC, you need to take into account the movement of this index as well.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term Technical Analysis)
US100 Overview

Chart-wise, volatility is lessening more and more and we are at the halfway point in the price range, so we think it is best not to rush now, but to trade when the chart is in better shape. As for this week and the previous, I have not traded a BTC at all. For this month of January, I dare to write, I want to be careful of the anomaly of this decline.

The difficulty of the current market is that it is impossible to make a decision on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner. Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

 

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

This past week (12/26-12/31), volatility shrank more than before, and there were few short-term price breakouts. Therefore, we did not take any trades on BTC this week.

As I stated in last week’s article, “As is my policy, I will be watching the market for some time to come.” This is the premise of the article and will continue to be the policy next week.

Also, as is the annual trend (anomaly) for BTC, it is very common for BTC to drop 10% or more in January, so we will watch out for that as well. Trying to go long against the recent lows is an option, but in conjunction with this anomaly, I think it is a good idea to wait a bit.

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

↓ BTCUSD yearly candlestick chart

Let’s take another look at this past week (12/6 – 1/1/2023) as we have a monthly update and an annual update in between.

In this view, 2022 was a rather large negative candle. After a big negative candle, it is basically easy to become positive, so I think 2023 will be a little easier to target longs. Until monetary easing starts again, I think it will be tough for the market to make new highs.

Looking at the monthly chart, in conjunction with the January anomaly, we may be prepared for a drop to $14,000. In any case, it is a price range where it is difficult to take positions until a little more time passes, so we think there is no need to rush. Let’s keep up the good work this year.

 

US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US 100 continues to be range-bound this week. Setups will continue to be seen as they are. The US100 is still in a downtrend as last week, but it looks like it is about to turn back to the white support box at the lower end of the range, with a lower wick. We will keep a close eye on whether the price will stop here or go further down. If it does, BTC is likely to move lower with it.

This has little to do with BTC’s movement this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch BTC as well. Another way to write this is that when taking a position in BTC, you also need to take into account the movement of the index.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
US100 Overview

 

Chart-wise, volatility is lessening more and more, and we are at the halfway point in the price range, so we think it is best not to rush now, but to wait until the chart is in better shape. As for this week, I have not traded BTC at all. The market also needs rest.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a composite manner. Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

 

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

This week (12/19 – 12/25) was much less volatile than ever before, with very few short-term price breakouts. Therefore, we did not trade at all this week with respect to BTC.

Of course, as I stated in last week’s article, “as is my policy, I’m going to wait and see.” That is the premise. I will continue this policy next week.

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

It is almost the end of December and the year 2022 is about to end. If you dare to take a position next week, you can take a long position toward the opening price, expecting a pin bar on this month’s monthly leg, but I do not recommend it since there is not much price range.

I will write about the next month and beyond in next week’s article as I find out the finalization of this month’s monthly leg.

 

US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100 has been a range-bound market this week. Setups will continue as they are and remain to be seen. The US100 is still in a downtrend from last week, but it looks like it may turn around at the lower end of the range, in the white support box. We will keep a close eye on whether the price stops here or goes further down. If it does, BTC is likely to follow it down.

This has little to do with BTC’s movement this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, we need to watch BTC as well. Another way to write this is that when taking a position in BTC, you also need to take into account the movement of the index.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
US100 Overview

Chart-wise, volatility is shrinking and we are at the halfway point in the price range, so we do not want to rush into a trade now, but rather trade after the chart takes shape.

In the short term, the move was easy to create positions, and we will explain this with a review of last week’s article.

It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment at any given time. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to be in a hurry to build buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the offensive. (repost)

 

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

This week (12/12~12/18), BTC had a brief rally at the beginning of the week, but then hit the white resistance box (around $18,000) and dropped, as expected. Here is a recap, along with a description of last week’s article.

In an easy to understand manner, the way I saw it in last week’s article was,

“I think we will see a return sell-off at the $18,000 area, which was originally support (now broken and the white box at the resistance price area), and I would be careful to confirm the candlestick at that point. For example, if a shadow line created as a result of a sell-off encompasses a previous positive line at the daily or 4-hour level, it is strictly forbidden to go long to the white box below.”

This is due to the fact the price movement is roughly as expected because it was

Therefore, the long position I had at the beginning of this week (12/12~12/18), which is described later in this report, was profit-tested at around $18,000 and then saw sell pressure. Per my policy, I intend to wait and see how things go for a while.

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart

I will also review the short-term rally earlier this week on the lower leg. I built a long position in the area circled by the rectangle in the chart above (around $16,900). This is a long position aiming for a positive turnaround from the lower part of the initial weekly update and a positive turnaround on the monthly leg (the base price for a positive turnaround is the light blue line at $17,165, the opening price of the monthly leg).

This is in line with last week’s article, “the current price range is the opening price of the monthly leg, and it will be a point of interest to see whether or not this area can be exceeded in the next week or so. If it falls back down to the short-term box (around $16,800), we may pick it up.” This is the practice example of the part “I am not sure if this is a good idea.”

The above is a review of the trades we made this week, and I hope you also understand the importance of making compounding decisions on multiple time frames.

US100 Overview

↓ US100 8-hour candlestick chart

The US 100 has been in a range-bound market this week. The setup will continue as is and will continue to be monitored. The US100 was in a downtrend this week, and the reasons for this are easy to see when observing the chart: it is at the upper end of the range, and it hit a diagonal line (newly added). This declining diagonal line is a point to watch a bit more in the future. Over the next week or so, it will be important to check which white support area it will stop at if the decline continues.

This has little to do with BTC’s movement this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, we need to watch this as well. Another way of putting it is that when taking a position in BTC, you also need to take into account the movement of this index. BTC’s decline from the $18,000 level this week was linked to the decline in the US100.

Contents
BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
USDJPY Example Trade
US100 Overview

The market continues to be at the midpoint of the price range, with charted volatility shrinking. For this reason, we believe it is best not to not rush things, but to trade when the chart is in shape. I have not traded any BTC this week, as there have been no significant price movements. Instead, I traded USDJPY and posted it as a practical example for your reference.

The difficulty of the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner. Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long-time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

 

BTC Overview

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart

The longer time horizon analysis and basic stance policy remains the same as last week, so please refer to last week’s article. Since the current price range is still at the halfway point, I do not intend to take aggressive positions. I think it is better to wait until we are about to form a clear range or make a double bottom.

As previously mentioned, there has been little price movement this week, and I think it will be difficult to trade. The current price range is the opening price of the month, and it will be interesting to see whether or not the price will exceed this area in the coming weeks. If it falls to the short-term support area (around $16,800) one more time, it might be a good time to pick up some.

If the price does not test the lows and rises, I plan to go long against the current price range with the idea of a resistance turnaround.

In addition, I believe the price will sell back at the $18,000 area, which was originally support (now broken by the white support box in the resistance price range), and I will be careful to confirm the candlestick at the time. For example, if a shadow line created as a result of a selloff encompasses a previous positive line at the daily or 4-hour level, it is strictly forbidden to follow the long move to the white support box below. Thus, it is important to make compounding decisions on multiple time frames.

 

USDJPY Example Trade

At 10:30 p.m. on 12/9, an economic indicator called PPI was announced, and the trade was made because it was close to a horizontal line at the support area. Incidentally, since large price movements often occur with the release of economic indicators, one should be careful to manage one’s funds when making trades.

1. Initially, I will post a chart setup before taking any position.

↓ USDJPY weekly candlestick chart

Incidentally, the key area is the horizontal line around 135.6.

↓ USDJPY 4-hour candlestick chart

It is good to be able to imagine a box like the one shown above in the short-term leg as well.

2. The 5-minute chart at 10:00 p.m. just before the PPI indicator is asymptotically approaching the horizontal blue line shown earlier in the chart below.

Since there is 30 minutes before the indicator, the play is to wait without buying yet.

3. The 10:28 p.m. minute is like this: I come to the target price, set a stop-loss, and buy.

4. With the release of the index, the price movement was as such:

Finally, I took profit as it almost touched the above horizontal line.

We hope you have noticed we have kept the horizon lines and time in mind to make simple trades.

 

US100 Overview

↓ US100 weekly candlestick chart

The US100 has been in a range-bound market this week. Setups will continue as they are and remain to be seen. The ranging market is likely to continue in this price area for a while. The so-called “attack and defense against the weekly 200 MA” is being played out. This is clearly indicated by the wicks of the candlesticks. The current price range is supported by a white resistance box directly above it, and the upper price is shows heavy sell pressure, while the lower price is supported by the weekly 200 MA being sandwiched between the two. We expect the price to struggle in this area for some time.

This has little to do with BTC’s movement this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always state, we need to watch this one as well. Another way of putting it is when taking a position in BTC, you also need to take into account the movement of this index.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)

US100 Overview

 

 

BTC Overview

We continue to believe we should not be in a hurry to trade now, as volatility is shrinking chart-wise and we are at the halfway point in the price range. But once we have the monthly update in between, we can organize based on such.

The difficulty in the current market is it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

Now that December is here, we do our customary environment awareness: the month of November closed with a shadowy line with a lower wick.

As I have reiterated since my article two weeks ago, I will not be aggressively taking positions in the current price range, as it remains a halfway price range. I think it is better to wait until a clear range is about to be formed or until a double bottom is made.

However, if I were to try to take a position, I could try to go long for an initial positive turnaround in December, with a loss at the low of the November wick or a break below the low. It is possible the monthly leg will turn positive once it swings upward.

Other than this one point, I would basically take no position (sell back if possible).

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

This week’s (11/28 – 12/4) weekly price is confirmed as a positive leg, and the first point to watch from next week onward is whether it can cross the light blue line ($17,165 opening price for the month of December). Since the $16,000 area is a wick-prone zone at the weekly level, it is worth picking it up.

Also, I think the price see selling pressure at the $18,000 area, which was originally a support (it has now broken below and is a white support box in the resistance price zone), so be careful to confirm the candlestick at that time. For example, if a shadow line created as a result of a sellback encompasses a previous positive line at the daily or 4-hour level, it is strictly forbidden to follow the long move to the white box below. Thus, it is important to make compounding decisions on multiple time frames.

US100 Overview

 

↓ US100 weekly candlestick chart

The US 100 has been a range-bound market this week. Setups will continue as they are and remain to be seen. The range market is likely to continue in this price area for a while. The so-called “attack and defense against the weekly 200 MA” is being played out. This is clearly indicated by the wicks of the candlesticks. The current price range is heavy on the upside, with the white support box of resistance just above it, and the lower price is supported by the weekly 200 MA, which is sandwiched between the two.

 

This has little to do with BTC’s move this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, we need to watch this one as well. Another way of putting it is that when taking a position in BTC, you also need to take into account the movement of the index.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
Short-term BTC Practical Example Trade for this Week (11/21~11/27)
US100 Overview

 

BTC Overview

Until the FTX situation calms down to some extent, one should refrain from taking aggressive positions. I closed the week with almost no positions. However, I did take a position in one spot where I saw a typical chart pattern, which I will show you as a practical example.

Chart-wise, volatility is decreasing and we are at the halfway point in the price range, so I am not in a rush right now and think it is best to trade when the chart is in a better shape.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to be in a hurry to build buying positions over a long-time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

 

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart

The recent FTX bankruptcy and credit concerns caused $BTC to break below its daily range, and although it returned to the lower end of the range at $18,000, it was sold back and folded. Since then, it has fallen back to higher highs and volatility has been shrinking.

As stated last week, a “do nothing (no position)” approach was correct as we are at the halfway point in this current state. I think it is better to wait until it looks like it is about to form a clear range or make a double bottom.

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

The November monthly leg is about to close with a negative candle.

 

In my last article, I wrote: “if you want to target long positions, it’s not too late to do so after this month’s monthly candle is finalized and you have support. If we test the white support box just below ($13,000-$14,000) within this month or over the next month, that’s where I’d like to target it a bit.” As I said, this is the basic policy I would like to follow, and it would not be a bad idea to take a short-term long position at or just below the monthly lows in November.

Short-term BTC Practical Example Trade for this Week (11/21~11/27)

As mentioned at the beginning of this report, the only long position I took this week, saying that I should refrain from taking a position because the current position is halfway up, is the circled wick on November 22, as shown above. Interpretation of this wick is important as it is a pattern that appears frequently in trading, so please take this opportunity to examine it carefully. Since this chart is a 15-minute chart, let’s look at the candlesticks a little higher up.

Then, we can see that the wicks of the long point circled by zeros in the previous section are “a slight break below the recent lows.

 

In many cases, this “slight break below the recent lows” will result in a reversal. This is because,

(1) A break below the low will bring in a new long-shot short position.

(2) A break below the low will cause long positions that had placed stop-losses at the recent low to cut their losses.

The reason for this is because,

(1) This is similar to the reason I have said many times before, “in a range market, you should never take a long-shot short at the lower end of the range.” This is the reason why it usually doesn’t work.

(2) The other way to put it is if “the enemy of a long position is a long position.” When a price move reverses from a decline to a short rally, the reversal occurs after the long position losses are cut, and vice versa. This is what I mean.

This is how I interpreted the wicks in this case. This time it was the short-term leg, but this can be applied to other time frames as well, so please keep this in mind.

 

Back to the short-term candles again.

The interpretation of the wicks is the same as above, and although I took a short-term long position at the wicks, in fact, I could have taken a position at the double bottom on the right side of the wicks (yellow oval) instead. In other words, in this case, it would be better to assume a short-term double bottom and place a stop loss at the tip of the wicks on the left side.

 

As always, it is important to interpret the candlesticks of each time period in a comprehensive manner.

 

US100 Overview 

↓ US100 monthly candlestick chart

The US 100 has been in a range-bound market this week. Setups will continue as they are and remain to be seen. The range market is likely to continue in this price area for a while. The image of the so-called “attack and defense against the monthly 200 MA” is unfolding.

 

This has little to do with the movement of BTC this week, but in any case, if the US100 does not rebound, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch BTC as well. Another way of putting it is when taking a position in BTC, you also need to consider the movement of this index.

Table of Contents
BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term Technical Analysis)
US100 Overview

 

BTC Overview

The turmoil from last week’s FTX collapse still hasn’t subsided this week, the fallout continues, and the market continues to be in a cautionary mood. I closed the week with no positions.

Chart-wise, volatility is shrinking and we are at the halfway point in the price range, so I am not in a rush right now and think it is best to trade when the charts are in shape.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a composite manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (Reiterated)

↓8-hour candlestick chart of BTCUSD

Last week’s FTX bankruptcy and credit concerns caused $BTC to fall below its daily range, and it has been sold back to the lower end of the range at $18,000, but has been sold back and folded.

As in the past week, “do nothing (no position)” is correct as we are at the halfway point at this point in the current position. It would be better to wait until it looks like it is about to form a range or make a double bottom. If a new low is confirmed by a large negative line, I would not force a long position.” This is the case in the current situation.

If you want to take a long position, I think it is not too late to do so after this month’s monthly leg is confirmed and your back is made. If we were to test the white box directly below ($13,000-$14,000) within this month or over the next month, that is where I would want to target a bit.

The longer time frame chart setup is as I put it on last week, so you may want to check last week’s article.

US100 at a glance

↓Daily candlestick chart of US100

The US 100 has been a range-bound market this week. Setups will continue as they are and remain to be seen. It looks like it will remain range-bound in this price area for a while.

This has little to do with BTC’s movement this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, we need to watch this one as well. Another way of putting it is that when taking a position in BTC, you also need to take into account the movement of the index.

Content

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)
US100 Overview

BTC Overview

This week was a tumultuous week for crypto assets. Leading crypto asset exchange FTX (the second largest exchange in the world at the time) went bankrupt. We will not go into details, but it was discovered FTX had been privately speculating on funds entrusted to it by its customers and incurring huge losses, and customers were unable to withdraw their crypto assets from their own investment funds. This was a huge shock to the industry, as the exchange was world-renowned and quite trusted.

↑ $FTT daily candlestick chart

FTX exchange token $FTT sold off sharply, falling more than 90% in a matter of days, and $SOL, which had close ties to FTX, also fell sharply. Following their lead, other crypto assets sold off, and BTC was no exception. As we will see below, we need to change our minds a bit from the past week.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible make any judgments using BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long-term horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, $BTC has fallen below its daily range due to the FTX bankruptcy and credit concerns. The strategy up to last week’s article was to assume within the range, so we need to switch our mindset. In this case, the next price area that could pick up would be the price range with a white support box around $13,000-$14,000 directly below.

Currently we are at the halfway point, so taking a “do nothing (no position)” is our stance. “It would be better to wait until the price is about to form a range or make a double bottom. If a new low is confirmed by a large negative candle, I would not force a long position.” This is the case with the current situation.

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

Previously I stated, “the current price range is halfway there, but it will be clearer if you check with the higher leg, the monthly leg. In other words, since we are in a ‘no-backing’ (no support) situation, we ‘cannot set a stop-loss’ and therefore ‘cannot take a position.’”

Wait and see with this market. No need to rush.

 

US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US 100 has been a range-bound market this week. The setup will continue as is and we will continue to watch.

This has little to do with the movement of BTC this week, but in any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, we need to watch this one as well. When taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of this index.