Category: Overview

Table of Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term Technical Analysis)
US100 Overview

 

BTC Overview

For some time now, I have been writing, “Again, I believe that we are still in a range, rather than a reversal of a longer time horizon trend.” This week was a week in which we were reminded of this. It is important to keep this awareness in mind and to make humble profit-taking decisions frequently.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has come to an end and funds are being withdrawn from the market, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to go on the offensive. (Reiterated)

 

↓BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, I write repeatedly every week, “Again, if we consider a longer time horizon, whether it reverses or continues to fall, some horizontal axis adjustment is necessary, and the market should remain range-bound until then. Therefore, I do not consider the short-term range break to be a trend reversal, but rather a possible range expansion or reversion. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to turn. We believe we are still in the process of building a horizontal axis.” This is what I felt this week as well as last week.

This is partly a reiteration, but I plan to stand by this policy for the next month and beyond.

Last week, I said, “Since the monthly chart also turned negative, I don’t want to take too many long positions for this month on a monthly level.” I was actually right this week in taking such a stand. This is a concept that I would like to keep in mind as I will be able to apply it in the future. The idea is to not go against the upper leg.

The decline has stopped at the $20,000 area, which is a strong resistance box for now. What happens next remains to be seen, but the possible future positive scenarios and points now are “a move in the $20,000-$26,000 or $18,000-$26,000 range, with a range-breaking move, i.e., a triangle or a rounding up.” In the This is a scenario in which the recent lows are not broken, so if the lows are broken, do not take a long position by force, but rather aim for a second bottom. Incidentally, since I do not think the recent low will be broken this time, I will continue to target long positions for a short-term rebound over the next month or so.

 

↓US100 weekly candlestick chart

The US100 is in the process of falling as shown in the chart above. There is a white box just below at around $12,300 that is likely to rebound at one point, but we believe that we should be prepared for a decline to around $11,000, another level below that. This is because there are several horizontal boxes in that area, and the 200MA is also present, so a rebound is highly likely. In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is also unlikely to rebound, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch this as well.

Table of Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term Technical Analysis)

 

BTC Overview

For some time now, I have been writing, “Again, I believe that we are still in a range, rather than a reversal of a longer time horizon trend.” This week was a week in which we were reminded of this. It is important to keep this awareness in mind and to make humble profit-taking decisions frequently.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has come to an end and funds are being withdrawn from the market, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long time horizon. This is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to go on the offensive. (Reiterated)

 

↓BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

As I stated at the beginning of this article, I write repeatedly every week.

As I repeat, “Again, if we consider a longer time horizon, whether a reversal or a continued decline occurs, some degree of horizontal axis adjustment is necessary, and until then, the market should remain range-bound. Therefore, I do not consider the short-term range break to be a trend reversal, but rather a possible range expansion or reversion. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to turn. We believe we are still in the process of building a horizontal axis.” This was a remarkable week for us.

Specifically, it failed to cross the $26,000 resistance box and turned around and fell. As long as the price remains in a transitory rise, it is only a range market. Be aware that the human brain tends to have a convenient bias that when prices go up, they will continue to go up.

Since the monthly chart has also turned negative, on a monthly level, we do not want to take too many long positions with respect to this month. The decline stopped just before $20,000, which is a strong resistance box for once. We do not know what will happen next, but the following two possible future scenarios and points are currently possible.

1. A move in the $20,000-$26,000 or $18,000-$26,000 range, which would create a narrowing of the range, i.e., a triangle or a rounding up of the range.
2. The opening price of $23,300 of the February session will probably be positive or negative, and the price movement in that price range should be watched carefully.

↓ Four-hour candlestick chart of BTCUSD

Let’s observe a little lower time frame. Then we can see parallel channels and trend lines as shown in the chart above. Although the horizontal boxes are the main feature, these are also good points to be aware of when looking at the chart.

Contents

Overview of BTC (Long and Short Term TA)

Overview of ETH

 

 

Overview of BTC

The price has broken out firmly above the recent range of $18,000 to $22,500 this week, and has shown a potential move towards the next resistance area of $26,000. Since I was able to take a long position with this move, I will review the actual position building practically. It will be August from next week, and since it is a monthly update, I will also keep that in mind.

 

Rather than a change in the long-term trend, I believe the range width has expanded and the market is still in a range.

 

It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is BTC cannot be solely used to make any judgment. It’s also important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.

Monetary easing is once over and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term buying position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on attack.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

The price has broken out firmly above the recent range of $18,000 to $22,500 this week.

 

The week before last, I stated, “if you want to aim for the top in the short term, you must first break through the weekly 200 MA (red line in the above chart), which has been holding the head down for a long time.” In addition, I also mentioned, “I would like to see how this battle will go next week and build an appropriate position.”

 

In other words, after finalizing the candlestick around 200MA weekly, this week, after making a lower wick like a resistance support conversion (see the description of the lower bar below) around $20,700 in the white box, it turned positive and broke through the 200 MA weekly bar.

 

This kind of movement has legs (this time around $28,000 in the white support box and conversion to resistance support on lower candlesticks), so it is easy to build a long position, so I think the expected value is high if you take a position aggressively. Since ETH has shown such price movements in advance, it would be better suited to expand the image in the ETH section below.

 

Today, July 31st, as I am writing this article, the monthly chart for this month will close. If this week’s candlestick closes above the weekly 200MA, we can build long positions against it from next week onwards. Also, when looking at the monthly level, if it moves to test the weekly 200MA, it can become a lower shadow of the monthly stick, so I would like to aim to build a long position next month.

 

On the other hand, once again, if we consider a slightly longer time axis, whether it reverses or continues to fall, a certain amount of horizontal axis adjustment is necessary, and until then the market should continue in a range. Therefore, I do not believe that this short-term range break has become a trend reversal, and the range width may expand or recur. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the long-term trend to reverse.

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

Looking at the daily chart, the conversion of the $20,700 resistance support is even clearer. The $20,700 to $22,000 range is likely to be a good option if you plan to build a long position next month. If you go back to the weekly description and verify, you will find the price around that area is also the weekly 200MA. This kind of composite observation of each timeframe is the basis of the idea of ​​candlesticks.

 

Last week, I said, “if you can handle the conversion of the resistance support, you can aim for a rise to the white resistance box of $25,000 next.”

 

 

Overview of ETH

↓ ETHUSD Weekly Candlestick Chart

Last week I predicted, “if ETH shows a fairly strong rise, leading BTC to break out of the recent range and continues to rise, the next resistance is likely to be around $1,750. If it moves like this, the key will be whether it can rebound around $1,300 to $1,400 in the event of a short-term decline in the future.” As you can see from the left side, this is a resistance box that seems to be quite difficult to break through in one shot, and even if it breaks through, it will be after next month.

 

I added the next resistance box around $2,200. Similar to BTC, the 200MA weekly chart is likely to be visited next week and after August. Specifically, we would like to build a long position on the assumption the price will push down to around $1,300.

 

Contents

Overview of BTC (long-term and short-term TA)

Overview of ETH

 

Overview of BTC

BTC also broke above the latest short-term range, as if following ETH, which broke above the latest ranging $ cap of last week. However, rather than changing the long-term axis trend, I think the ranging market is still continuing just because the range width has expanded.

 

It is necessary to continue to watch the movement of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty lies in the current market as we cannot use BTC alone to make any judgment. It is important to observe each element in a complex manner and make a comprehensive judgment.

 

Since monetary easing has ended and funds are being withdrawn from the market, it is not necessary to rush to build a buy position over a long period of time. Now is the phase of protecting funds, not to be on attack.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

As mentioned at the beginning, this week we have broken above the short term from the most recent range of $18,000 to the upper limit of $22,500.

 

Last week I stated, “if it wants to go up in the short term, it must break through the 200MA weekly, which is holding the head all the time.” I would like to see what the future of this offense and defense will be next week and build an appropriate position.

 

Again, a certain amount of horizontal axis adjustment is required, whether it reverses or continues to fall, the ranging market should continue until then. Therefore, I do not think that this short-term range break has turned into a trend change, but the range width may expand or return back. I think the horizontal axis is still insufficient for the trend to change.

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

On a daily basis, it once broke above the short-term range market price of the latest lower limit of $18,000 to the upper limit of $ 22,500, and is now showing a movement as if it is switching to register support at the upper limit of the range. If it manages a resistance support change, it seems it can aim for a rise to around $25,000 to the white box resistance area next time.

 

On the other hand, as mentioned in the weekly section, this area is a place where the upper price can show heavier resistance, so I would like to go around while considering the possibility of returning back to the range again. If it returns back again, you can wait for the monthly update without forcibly building a long position. It is an image of aiming for the positive line next month.

 

In this way, it is important to always set up multiple scenarios and respond flexibly to short-term price movements at the time and candlesticks on each time axis. At the moment, I have a strong desire to see it as a resistance support change.

 

Last week I also stated, “I’m a little worried, as I’ll explain later, ETH has been testing the latest range, so at this point, unless the US100 shows a downward trend, BTC may also break out of the range.” But it’s good to remember the price movements BTC has followed with this ETH lead have been witnessed many times in the past.

 

 

Overview of ETH

↓ ETHUSD weekly candlestick chart

ETH showed a fairly strong rise, leading BTC to break out of its most recent range. If it continues to rise, the next resistance is likely to be around $1,750. If the movement is similar to the BTC price movement assumption, the key is to be able to rebound at around $1,300 to $1,400 in the event of a short-term decline in the future.

Contents

This Week’s Summary

Overview of BTC (long-term and short-term TA)

Overview of ETH

This Week’s Summary

It was a ranging market again this week. Specifically, the movement is centered around $20,000.

As the US100 is strong, BTC also showed a rise in the short term. ETH has also broken above the latest range cap of the $.

Overview of BTC

This week’s BTC move was also in the range, around $20,000, as mentioned in the previous article.

It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said that the difficulty of the current market price is that BTC cannot make a judgment by itself. It is important to observe each element in a complex manner and make a comprehensive judgment.

Since monetary easing has ended and funds are being withdrawn from the market, it is not necessary to rush to build a buy position over a long period of time. Now it’s a phase to protect funds, not a phase to attack.

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

The market continues to be in the range from the lower limit of $18,000 to the upper limit of $22,500. If you want to go up in the short term, you have to break through the 200MA weekly, which has been holding your head all the time.

Again, whether it reverses or continues to fall, some horizontal axis adjustment is required, and the range market should continue until then.

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

On a daily basis, it is clearer the market is in the range from the lower limit of $18,000 to the upper limit of $22,500. Remember the basics of the range market are to buy at the lower limit of the range and sell at the upper limit of the range. I’m a little worried, as I’ll explain later, but since ETH has been trying the latest range, at this point, unless the US100 shows a downward trend, I would like to see the possibility that BTC will also break out of the range.

 

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart (comparison of similar figures)

Continuing from last week, we will also post a similar figure of the short-term foot for reference. They are not exactly the same, but they form similar shapes. As you can see from the above figure, if the price range is reduced, that is, the volatility is reduced, it is necessary to be careful in addition to the consciousness on the horizontal axis.

The relevant part has been expanded to make it easier to understand. As shown by the light blue arrow, the high price is gradually devalued, the volatility is reduced, and after forming a shape like a consolidator, it is falling.

Overview of ETH

↓ ETHUSD Weekly Candlestick Chart

Previously, it was stated “ETH, similar to BTC, will form a ranging market for a while. Specifically, it is assumed the upper limit of the range is around $1,400 and the lower limit of the range is around $800.” It showed a rise like it was trying. If this week’s candlestick closes above 200MA, it will be possible to build a short-term long position with 200MA on the back from next week onwards.

 

However, I think that the range market will actually continue for a while.

Contents

This Week’s Summary

Overview of BTC (long-term/short-term TA/practical examples)

Overview of ETH

 

This Week’s Summary

This week was the so-called ranging market. Specifically, the movement is centered around $20,000.

 

As the US100 is strong, BTC also showed a rise in the short term.

 

For today, I will look back on the practical examples of short-term position construction. Please refer to last week’s article for the US100.

 

 

Overview of BTC

This week’s BTC move was also in the range, around $20,000, as mentioned in a previous article.

 

It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. The difficulty of the current market price is BTC cannot be used solely to make any judgment. It is important to observe each factor in a complex manner and make a comprehensive judgment.

 

Since monetary easing has ended and funds are being withdrawn from the market, it is not necessary to rush to build a long position over a for the long term. Now we are in a phase to protect funds, not the phase to attack.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

 

This week, it became a Sun line that seems to wrap up the hidden line of last week, and it turned around at the price range per the weekly 200MA (red line), that is, $22,500. This $22,500 looks like the upper end of the range for this price range. In other words, for the time being (next week / this month), we will assume the lower limit is $18,000 and the upper limit is $22,500.

 

Again, whether it reverses or continues to fall, some horizontal axis adjustment is required, as the ranging market should continue until then.

 

In last week’s article, I stated this month’s lunar legs are not the image of the Sun line, but the image closer to the candle bar with a small substance and a large wick, but at the moment it seems the image can be used as it is.

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

Next, I’ll talk about short-term candlesticks, including feedback from last week’s article.

 

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart (as of last week)

Last week, “The latest price movement has not been able to maintain $20,000 on the 8-hour chart and looks bearish. On the other hand, against the support of the latest low price, building a short-term long position assuming a double bottom is one of the options I am thinking about. This also includes the positive assumption it may rise and the lunar candle may turn positive after that.”

 

I assumed, and it happened to turn out as such.

 

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart (as of this week)

Actually, the price movement was as expected, so we built a short-term long position.

 

Keep in mind price movements at the beginning of the month are relatively easy to trade, not just this time.

 

Anyway, it is still a ranging market centered on $20,000, so I would like to trade it so as not to forget it.

 

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart (comparison of similar figures)

Also, as shown in the chart above, the shape of the current range and the range during May are similar. It may not be exactly the same, but I would like to pay attention to this area as a guideline for the horizontal axis of a range break.

 

Overview of ETH

 

↓ ETHUSD weekly candlestick chart

As mentioned in last week’s article, “ETH, like BTC, seems to be forming a ranging market for a while. Specifically, it is assumed the upper limit of the range is around $1,400 and the lower limit of the range is around $800.”

Contents

This Week’s Summary

Overview of BTC (Practical examples of long-term and short-term TA and short-term trading)

Overview of ETH

Overview of the US100

 

 

This Week’s Summary

Continuing from last week’s article, my view on the market as a whole is I don’t want to  feel forced to take a position except in an easy-to-understand situation because there is no clear indication of where to place a position as I have my suspicions. An easy-to-understand situation is one I will explain below in this week’s article in the BTC’s hourly chart.

 

In any case, with this feeling, it is highly likely a market reversal over a long-time axis will require a ranging market for several years. It should be remembered the market environment has a high probability of a temporary rise even if it is about to reverse in the short time.

 

 

Overview of BTC

This week’s BTC move was in the range, around $20,000, as mentioned in last week’s article.

 

It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market price is BTC cannot be used solely to make any judgments. It is important to observe each element in a complex manner and make a comprehensive judgment.

 

Since monetary easing has ended and funds are being withdrawn from the market, it is not necessary to rush to build a buy position over a long period of time. We are in the phase to protect funds, not a phase to be on the attack.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

For the time being, this week’s weekly chart is likely to be confirmed by the positive line. However, I think it is unlikely we will reverse from here. This week, the monthly foot of this month will be confirmed by a hidden line, so I would like to see exactly where the candlestick closes.

 

In last week’s article, I mentioned, “Next week, we expect to set a range in this price range, that is, around $20,000.” However, I think this month and next month will be in this price range for as well for a while.

 

On the other hand, if price breaks below this range, it is important to note only the white box in the figure below has an area where you may want to take a long position. In other words, it can be said it is not necessary to aim for the construction of a long position because it is in a state of not having much support.

 

Whether it reverses upwards or continues to fall, some horizontal axis adjustment is required, and the ranging market should continue until then.

 

↓ BTCUSD 1-hour candlestick chart