Author: Nihat Çekinkaya

Contents

This Week’s Summary (fundamental aspect)

Overview of BTC (long-term and short-term TA)

Overview of ETH

Overview of US100

 

 

The Week’s Summary

At the time of last week’s article, the perspective was a ranging market, but unlike that perspective, the market continues to decline. Rather than a single crypto asset, it seems that it is linked to the decline in the US100 and U30, which continues to decline due to global monetary tightening. The price ranging many market participants will be aware of, BTC is below $20,000 and ETH is below $1,000.

 

My view of the market as a whole is that I don’t have to force myself to take a position because there is no place to back or I’m suspicious of any currency.

 

In any case, with this feeling, it is highly likely that a market reversal over a long-term axis will require a ranging market for several years. It should be remembered the market environment has a high probability of a temporary rise even if it is about to reverse in the short time.

 

Overview of BTC

As mentioned earlier, BTC has dropped below $ 20,000. By the way, $20,000 is the price range of the previous ATH.

 

It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. The difficulty of the current market price is BTC cannot be used solely to make any determination. It is important to observe each element in a complex manner and make a comprehensive judgment.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

BTC broke below the range very easily and fell below $20,000, as mentioned in last week’s article.

 

Next week, we expect to set a range in the price range around here, that is, around $20,000.

On the other hand, if price breaks below that range, it is important to note that only the white box in the figure below has a place where you can take a long position. In other words, it is not necessary to aim for the construction of a long position because it is in a state of no height.

Overview of ETH

↓ ETHUSD Weekly Candlestick Chart

As mentioned at the beginning, ETH is also breaking the conscious price range one after another, and the situation is quite severe. In the price range around here, I think the box that seems to be conscious is around $800. Like BTC, there are few places showing support. I think it’s okay to build a position after you feel like you’re in a range.

 

Overview of US100

The US100 has fallen this week and has stopped declining in the box shown in the previous article. I think the market will continue to decline, so I would like to avoid forcibly aiming to build a long position for the US100 and linked crypto assets in places other than the white box.

Table of Contents

This week’s summary (fundamental aspect)
Overview of BTC (long-term / short-term TA / short-term trading)
Overview of ETH
Overview of US100

This Week’s Summary
~ ETH continues to fall ~

 

BTC is still ranging, as mentioned last week. Meanwhile, ETH continued to fall this week. The cause seems to be due to the credit insecurity around the operation of ETH’s DeFi called stETH, in addition to the original bad market conditions. Please refer to the following tweets for details:

没错，循环借贷。$ETH

是不是很熟悉，他又来了。搞崩Terra UST的DeFi操作，循环借贷他又来了。通过AAVE和Lido的stETH对以太坊合并后的主网激活进行了数十亿的杠杆对赌。

在 Lido 质押 ETH 换取 stETH

将 stETH 存入 AAVE 并借入 ETH

— BDD NLD (@bdd9999) June 11, 2022

Mashinsky dealing w/the devil (Alameda)

victim is the price of $ETH

how it works:
Celsius sold $steth at discount to SBF in peak fear of peg.

Alabama shorts $ETH
SBF has tons of $steth

Celsius can sell them more $steth at discount

refuse? SBF dumps steth. liquidates celsius

— napgener 0xBullMarket (@napgener) June 11, 2022

Overview of BTC

BTC continues to be in a price range.

I didn’t have much sense of direction, and I felt I was often swayed by the movement of ETH. I felt the correlation with the US100 has become less.

It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment at that time. It can be said the difficulty of the current market price is BTC itself cannot be used to make any judgment. It is important to observe each element in a complex manner and make a comprehensive judgment.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

On the weekly level, it is likely the market will continue to range.

 

Specifically, it is assumed the ranging market is specified as the lower limit of the range = the latest low price of $26,000 and the upper limit of the range = the latest high price of $33,000. Perhaps we should be able to go around with this range assumption for a while. I also want to remember the basis of the range market is to buy at the lower limit and sell at the upper limit. I want to take the opposite position, so-called ‘Tsukkomi’ position, so that it will not be consumed.

 

Just as I was writing the article, such a situation occurred, so I will give it as a concrete example.

In this way, at the lower limit of the range, there are many movements such as hunting for a short position, aiming for a short-term move.

 

Short-term trading

In the short term, the correlation with the US index has become less.

On the other hand, the correlation with ETH, which continues to become less, has increased. When ETH falls, BTC also shows a drop, and when ETH shows a reversal, BTC follows.

 

However, when the US stock index shows a sharp decline, it seems BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position with an easy position and a sense of affordability.

Overview of ETH

↓ ETHUSD Weekly Candlestick Chart

As mentioned above, ETH continued to fall to around $1,440 in the box shown in the previous article, where it once reversed. By the way, I set up a long position to take a backlash around the support area. I think we will set up a range around here ($1,400 to the latest box $1,700), but depending on the movement of BTC at the beginning of the week, we would like to see the possibility of a lower price to around $1,180 of the next long point (weekly 200MA).

 

Overview of US100

There isn’t much to write about this week as well, so please refer to the article from the week before last for the support areas you are aware of.

Table of Contents

Overview of BTC (long-term / short-term TA / short-term trading)

Overview of ETH

Overview of US100

 

Overview of BTC

At this stage, I would like approach the market with a positive outlook forecast this month, but I need to determine carefully.

 

It is necessary to continue to watch the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market price cannot be determined by judging BTC alone. It is important to observe each element in a complex manner and make a comprehensive determination.

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

June starts this week.

In the previous article I mentioned,

 

“Think about the candle bar for June. As with last week, my policy is to take a long position with the lower wick of the shadow line in May only if the initial movement of the candle bar is down. It is the basic idea of ​​candlesticks. Of course, it may be a positive line without a lower wick, but I think the possibility is extremely low, especially at the monthly level. It is the past on the left side of the above figure. It is clear if you look at the monthly chart of the month.” Accordingly, the current situation is working as expected.

 

Since the initial movement is down once, I would like to have a long position once with the wick tip of the previous month as my back or with a slight break in the low price.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

At the weekly level, it is highly likely the market is ranging.

 

Specifically, it is assumed the range market is specified as the lower limit of the range = the latest low price of $26,000 and the upper limit of the range = the latest high price of $33,000. Perhaps it should be good to go around with this range assumption for a while. I also want to remember the basis of a ranging market is to buy at the lower limit and sell at the upper limit. I want to take the opposite position, so-called ‘Tsukkomi’ position, so it will not be consumed.

 

Short-term trading

In the short term, the link with the US index has become less correlated.

 

Although the US100 showed a rise, BTC did not show a lift, probably due to the decline in ETH.

 

However, when the US stock index shows a sharp decline, I think BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position if this occurs.

 

Overview of ETH

↓ ETHUSD Daily Candlestick Chart

Regarding ETH last week I mentioned,

 

“Since it is stopped at the white box once, there is a possibility of making a positive line next week or next month. At least it seems there is a plunge short from this position, so even if it is a hidden line, I see it being shaken up once in the short term.”

 

As mentioned, it showed a transient rise in the short term. However, it started to fall again at the milestone price range of $2,000. After this, I would like to see if it will move to try another box below, or if it can be reversed at the current price range. In any case, the lower price is considered to be limited, so I would like to aim to build a long position.

 

Overview of US100

There isn’t much to write about this week, so please refer to last week’s article for the support areas you are aware of.

Table of Contents

Overview of BTC (long-term and short-term TA)

Overview of ETH

TA of the Nasdaq Composite Index (US100)

 

 

Overview of BTC

“Sell in May” is finally over.

 

The US100 showed a strong rebound at the point of consciousness, but BTC is a little weak and the ranging market continues. The cause may be the decline in ETH did not stop. It will be necessary to look at this as well.

 

I want price action to show a positive line forecast next month, but this needs to be carefully determined.

 

I want to trade with calm and faith by the charts while watching the movement of the US100 next month.

 

While watching all the movements of BTC, ETH and the US100, it is necessary to respond flexibly to the market environment in a timely manner. It can be said the difficulty of the current market price is BTC alone cannot be used to many any judgments.

 

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

Since it is the timing of a monthly close and update, first of all, a recognition from the market.

This month’s lunar candle is likely to be confirmed by the big shadow line. Think about the monthly candle for June next month. As with last week, my policy is to take a long position with the lower wick of the hidden line during May only if the initial movement of the lunar leg is down. This is the basic idea of ​​candlesticks.

 

Of course, it may be a positive line without a lower wick, but I think the possibility is extremely low, especially at the monthly level. It is clear from the past lunar candles on the left side of the above figure.

 

↓ ETHUSD weekly candlestick chart

Despite BTC’s ranging market this week, ETH showed unusual developments as it broke lower supports. As ETH fell, BTC also tended to be slammed, albeit within range. Since support held at the white box once, there is a possibility it will make a positive line next week or next month. At least it seems that there is a plunge short from this position, so even if it is a hidden line, I think it will swing up once in the short term.

 

↓ ETHUSD monthly candlestick chart

Rather, we have to think about the case of breaking the current price range.

In that case, be careful because there is no support until down to around $1,400.

 

Short Term

In the short term, the link with the US index has become less correlated.

 

Although the US100 showed a price increase, BTC did not show any, probably due to the decline in ETH.

 

However, when the US stock index shows a sharp decline, I think BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position keeping an easy mindset and a sense of affordability.

 

TA of the US100

 

↓ US100 weekly chart

I think the US100 is still in a downtrend, so I’ve briefly illustrated a support box where it likely to show support if the downtrend continues. Since BTC is often correlated, it is inevitable to observe the price action when the Nasdaq Composite Index falls to these support areas.

 

It is unknown at which side it will stop, so I would like to pay close attention to the short-term candle movements in this white box.

 

Last week I stated,

“It is certain we are approaching the price range where it should show a rebound in price.

 

Specifically, it is the daily 200EMA/200MA and the horizontal box that overlaps it. In particular, it can be seen from the above figure the 200EMA and 200MA are points that can be bought and conscious even in the past crash of the corona shock.”

 

Showing a reversal.

 

If price falls again, it will turn around in the short term at around $11,000.

 

Table of Contents

Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, short-term TA, data analysis)

TA of the Nasdaq Composite Index (US100)

 

Overview of BTC

This month is literally a “Sell in May” month, and while the US stock index is still declining, BTC has been ranging since last week’s decline without hitting lows. Currently, I feel it is okay to look a little longer to next week.

I want to trade with calm and faith based on charts while watching the movement of the US100.

Please also note this article emphasizes the order of thinking, unlike usual, and describes it in the order of weekly → monthly.

↓ BTC / USD weekly candlestick chart

This week was a move within the range without breaking last week’s lows. It seems it will be confirmed by the hidden line this week, but from experience, it seems it is okay to go around with the assumption of the positive line next week. I think it will be a positive line with a little wick. It is a judgment in view of the situation BTC is enduring this low without breaking the latest low as the US stock index declines.

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

Also, this month’s lunar bar is likely to be confirmed by the big shadow line. This month’s monthly bar will close in about a week, so let’s think about the monthly bar for June next month. My policy is to take a long position with the lower wick of the hidden line in May only when the initial movement of the lunar leg is lower. This is the basic idea of ​​candlesticks.

 

Of course, it may be a positive line without a lower wick, but I think the possibility is extremely low, especially at the monthly level. It will be clear if you look at the past lunar bars on the left side of the above figure.

 

Short term

In the short term, the correlation with the US index is strengthening. Again, there are several violent movements correlating with the US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression is it will stop at support.

If the US stock index continues to fall sharply, BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position, but holding an easy position and a sense of affordability.

 

TA of the US100

 

↓ US100 daily chart

As usual, I think the US100 is in a downtrend, so I have briefly illustrated a box where it is likely to have support if the downtrend continues. Since BTC is often correlated, it is inevitable to observe the price action when the Nasdaq Composite Index falls to these support levels.

 

It is unknown where support will hold, so I would like to pay close attention to the short-term candle movements in this white support area.

 

However, it is certain the price range is approaching, which is likely to show a rebound.

Specifically, it is the daily 200EMA / 200MA and the horizontal box overlapping it. In particular, it can be seen from the above figure where the 200EMA and 200MA are points where conscious buys can be made, as evidenced in the past crash during the ‘corona shock.’

 

This is also one of the grounds where BTC’s monthly bar next month may show a positive candle.

Table of Contents

Overview of BTC and ETH (mid-term, long-term, and short-term TA & Data Analysis)

TA of the Nasdaq Composite Index (US100)

 

Overview of BTC

In continuation to last week, this month literally seems to be “Sell in May”.

The US stock index turned down again, and BTC also fell.

It is still unknown where it will stop, but I would like to trade with calm and faith based on the charts while observing the movement of the US100.

 

I will write in connection with review of the trade I actually made last week.

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

The monthly legs do not need to be shown, and the hidden lines continue.

 

BTC showed a decline linked to the US stock index, pierced the old white box, but returned on a wick. Even if price continues to fall, it seems the range will be set around here for a while and the horizontal axis will be adjusted, rather than the image of just falling as it is. If you want to show a breakout, you might want to look up to around $33,000 in the box above.

 

I was able to build a short-term long position on the lower wick, which is the first reason.

 

From two weeks ago,

“If it continues to fall, I would like to consider building a long position in the white box price range. Specifically, around $30,000. Whether or not a long position can be built depends on the behavior of short-term legs in that price range. If it falls slowly without making a big shadow line at the 1–5-minute level and without clearing the long position, the construction of the long position should be forgotten. If you put it on and it shows movement that seems to have settled on the long position, you may consider building a long position.”

 

I repeatedly stated the above, and it ended up being exactly the situation.

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart in price range

In addition, it was a likely situation to show a rebound in the short term based on the price range as seen from the range of declines in the past (Reason for having a long position shown in #2).

 

I would like to take a position in such an easy-to-understand area while continuing to be aware of the down market.

 

↓ ETHUSDT Daily Candlestick Chart

As mentioned above, BTC set a new low with a wick, but ETH stopped at the box level as if it were conscious of it. (Reason for having a long position #3.)

 

Short Term

In the short term, the correlation with the US index is strengthening. Again, there are several violent movements correlating with the US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high.

 

If the US stock index continues to fall sharply, BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position with an easy position and a sense of affordability. Again, this month is still the “Sell in May” month, so be careful.

 

TA of US100

 

Last week price movement reached the support area I had shown in advance, and even though it broke through it, it came back on a wick.

 

The US100 continues to be on a downtrend trend, so a simple illustration of a support area that is likely to be supported at if the downtrend continues. Since BTC is often linked to the US100, it is inevitable to observe the price action when the Nasdaq Composite Index falls to these areas.

 

It is unknown at which side it will stop at, so I would like to pay close attention to the short-term candle movements in this white box.

Table of Contents

Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, & short-term TA and Data Analysis)

TA of the Nasdaq Composite Index (US100)

 

Overview of BTC

After all, this month seems to be literally end up being “Sell in May”.

The US stock index turned down again and BTC also fell.

It is unknown where it will stop, but I would like to trade with calm and faith based on the charts while watching the movement of the US100.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

As mentioned at the beginning, this month is May, which is synonymous with “Sell in May”.

 

Last week I said, “We are aiming for the top of the first move, but we also want to consider the possibility the monthly leg will switch to the hidden line and the current price range will become the upper wick of the hidden line.” Both the monthly and weekly bars are likely to be confirmed by hidden lines.

 

If the lunar bar remains hidden, it is better to refrain from holding a long position until near the end of the month. It is unknown where the US stock index will stop declining.

 

Again, if it continues to fall, I would like to consider building a long position in the price range of the white box. Specifically around $30,000. Whether or not a long position can be built depends on the behavior of short-term legs in that price range. If it slowly falls without a big shadow line at the 1–5-minute level and without clearing the long position, the construction of the long position should be forgotten. On the other hand, if you put on a big shadow line and a beard and show a movement that seems to have settled a long position, you may consider building a long position.

 

It should be kept in mind long-position enemies are long-positions, and the fact the proportion of long-position enemies is still high from the week before last may be one of the factors making it difficult for the price to rise.

 

As with last week, we are still assuming a ranging market, but keep in mind if the US stock index falls sharply, $BTC will often fall with no time lag.

 

Also, altcoins have fallen sharply and I don’t think it’s time to buy altcoins.

 

Short term

In the short term, the correlation with the US index is strengthening. Again, there are many violent movements correlating with the US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high.

 

If the US stock index continues to fall sharply, BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position. Again, this month is the “Sell in May” month, so be careful.

 

TA of the US100

Since the US100 continues to show a decline, a simple illustration of a box is used as it is likely to stop if the decline continues. Since BTC is often correlated, it is inevitable to observe the price action when the Nasdaq Composite Index falls to these box levels.

 

It is unknown at which side it will stop, so I would like to pay close attention to the short-term candle movements in this white box.

 

By the way, last week’s transient rise was a stop-loss move for the new quick-trigger short position, which I saw after it broke the box near $13,000. Despite the down market, the quick-trigger (rear ride) position may be hunted in the short term, so be careful. If it’s not selling from the top, it’s probably safer to take a long position to get a rebound in the white box.

Table of Contents

Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, & short-term TA, and data analysis)

TA of the Nasdaq Composite Index (US100)

Overview of BTC

BTC, which has returned its former price range ($32,000~$45,000) the other day, showed a move to test the lower limit of the range and holding there. I continued to trade very little as the lunar bar turned negative and the upside continued to show heavy resistance with declining volatility. I want to be aware not taking a position is also a trade. Also, the Nasdaq Composite Index is on a downward trend again, so I would like to pay close attention to it together with the “SELL IN MAY” concept.

 

↓ BTCUSD Monthly Candlestick Chart

Since the monthly charts have been updated, we will start monthly awareness monitoring. April was confirmed by a hidden line.

As mentioned at above, this month is the familiar “SELL IN MAY” (so-called anomaly, don’t underestimate it).

 

The initial move is aimed at the top, but I would like to consider the possibility the monthly bars will change to the hidden line in the future and the current price range will become the upper wick of the hidden bar.

If you want to try below, consider building a long position in the white box price range. Specifically, between $35,000 and $30,000. Whether or not a long position can be built depends on the behavior of short-term legs in that price range. If it slowly falls without a big shadow line at the 1–5-minute level and without clearing the long position, the construction of the long position should be forgotten. On the other hand, if you put in a big shadow line and a wick and it shows movement that seems to have settled a long position, you may consider building a long position.

It should be kept in mind long-position enemies are long-positions, and the fact the proportion of long-position enemies is still high from the week before last may be one of the factors making it difficult for the price to rise.

It is still assumed the market price will range, but keep in mind if the US stock index falls sharply, BTC will often fall due with a short time lag.

 

Short term

In the short term, the correlation with the US index has lessened, but the correlation itself remains. Again, there many violent movements correlating with the US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression is it should stop at the horizon or zone.

If the US stock index continues to fall sharply, BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position. Again, this month is the “SELL IN MAY” month, so be careful.

Short-term volatility is declining day by day, and it takes time to recover if you incur a loss, so refraining from short-term trading is an option (I do).

I would like to emphasize it is not a scenario to take a positive position as a whole.

TA of the US100

Since the US100 is showing a decline again, I have briefly illustrated a box that is likely to show support if the decline continues. Since BTC is often correlated, it is inevitable to observe the price action when the Nasdaq Composite Index falls to these support levels.

It is unknown at which side it will hold at, so I would like to pay close attention to the short-term candle movements in this white box (support).