Author: Nihat Çekinkaya

Table of Contents

Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, short-term technical analysis, data analysis)

 

Overview of BTC

This week’s Bitcoin price has returned to its former range ($32,000- $ 45,000) by not being able to actually rise beyond the strong resistance of the 200MA on a daily basis and turning all monthly and weekly bars into hidden lines.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

As mentioned at the beginning, this week is likely to be confirmed by a big shadow line.

 

In last week’s article,

 

Future scenarios that can be considered by looking at the weekly and monthly bars:

1. Price will continue to rise to around $52,000 (next resistance)
2. This week the market will range between $45,500 to $48,000.
3. Settle below $45,500 and returned to previous range

3 patterns above can be considered.

 

Especially when the candle bar turns negative, scenario 3 is fully conceivable, so it is necessary to observe each hourly bar in a close manner. It is very important to be able to determine the candlestick movement above the upper range of $45,500.

 

But unfortunately,  scenario 3 played out. That is, the current Bitcoin is returning to the previous range.

 

Even more difficult to long is the percentage of accounts in Binance’s global long positions is over 70%. The enemies for long positions are long positions, so unless this ratio decreases (to the 50% level), I don’t want to take a long position too aggressively. It is not possible to take a long position unless the long position is reduced due to the liquidations of loss cuts due to the fluctuation of the market price.

 

↓ BTC Status Alert – Tweet

https://twitter.com/btc_status/status/1513110662645678080?s=20&t=UbQh9z9EXnDDuvT8UVfCSw

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

If you look at the daily level, you can see how it turned back neatly at the 200MA.

 

In last week’s article:

1. Above the range limit of $ 45,500
2. Without deterioration of supply and demand (dissociation / FR)
3. If the lower candlestick, such as a four-hour candlestick, forms a round-up shape,

 

It seems better to refrain from taking a short position from the daily 200MA back. (If you do not meet these conditions, especially with 2, you may take a short position with the latest high of $48,000 as your backing.)

 

However, it did not meet all of 1, 2, and 3, so the point of how to make a position this week was to take the strategy in () (I also went around in the short position main).

 

I don’t think it’s necessary to take a position until the yellow line is rounded up or the lower limit of the range is reached. Also, since all the upper legs have changed to hidden lines, I will take the short position as the main strategy.

 

Short Term

In the short term, the correlation with the US index has become less, but the correlation itself remains. Again, there are many violent movements that correlate with the US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression that it stops at the resistance or zone where it should stop.

 

If the US stock index continues to fall sharply, BTC will be entangled, so it is better to refrain from holding a long position (and vice versa).

 

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart

If you look at the lower candlesticks per 8 hours, you can see the parallel channels as shown in the above figure.

Even when considering the channel, it is located in the center, so it seems better to wait until near the lower limit of the channel if it is a long position, not a scene where you take a position positively.

 

↓ BTCUSD 4-hour candlestick chart

Furthermore, the fact that it was confirmed to be below 200MA at the 4-hour level was also a tough development for the longers.

 

Table of Contents

Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, short-term technical analysis)

 

Overview of BTC

Until last week, the stock indexes of Gold, Crude Oil and the US moved violently in a short period of time due to the ever-changing situation in Russia and Ukraine. But this week they showed relatively calm movement (the situation remains tense).

Bitcoin’s correlation to the US stock index is a bit weaker this week than it used to be (beware of changes in the environment).

Even though for the short-term showing volatile price movement, I always want to keep stay level-headed as it is only movement within a range ($30,000 ~ $ 45,000) described earlier when looking at the weekly and daily levels.

Mid-term and Long-term

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

Last week’s weekly chart was confirmed with a positive line that would recover the consecutive upper wicks mentioned earlier. This week, following the confirmation of the positive line last week, it is likely the positive line will continue to be confirmed. The current price range has a $45,000 upper limit on the daily/weekly range, so it is important to break out of this range. If it does not break through, the ranging market will continue.

 

↓ BTCUSD Monthly Candlestick Chart

Another point of interest is the lunar bar has changed from the hidden line to the positive line, and the lunar bar in March may be confirmed soon, so I would like to take a close look at the attack and resistance of the price range around here. If I try to go down once before the monthly bar is confirmed, I am thinking of taking a long position with the monthly opening price of around $43,000.

 

Last week, “The horizontal axis adjustment is over, and the possibility a short-term trend is likely to appear (a big move) may be seen soon from next week.” However, while considering the possibility, if a trend appears, it should not be easy to have a contrarian short position.

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

Looking at the daily chart, we can see that it is currently at the upper limit of the range.

 

Short term

In the short term, the correlation with the US index has become less, but the correlation itself is still there. Again, there are many volatile movements correlating with US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, my impression is that it will meet resistance at that zone where it should stop climbing.

 

We didn’t take a lot of positions last week (see previous article), but this week we have $45,000 attack and resistance, weekly and monthly updates, so let’s take a positive look at the short term as we see the potential for higher volatility.

 

As for this week, the short term was a painful price move for shorts. (Price movements in a clearly different trend from last week.) There is no feeling of overheating where the divergence of FR and cash / futures will rise, and it will gradually rise, which is a common movement when Bitcoin is strong. If you take it, you tend to lose money, so be careful. (I’m only holding long positions now.)

 

Table of Contents

Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, short-term TA)

 

Overview of BTC

Continuing from last week, the stock indexes of Gold, Crude Oil and the United States have moved violently in a short period of time due to the ever-changing unrest in Russia and Ukraine. Bitcoin was also moving along with them (inversely correlated with gold, correlated with stock indexes).

 

Although price action is expected to continue to be volatile in the short term, I would like to keep in mind the movement is still within range ($30,000 to $ 40,000) described earlier at the weekly and daily levels.

 

Mid / Long term

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

This week’s weekly candles are likely to be confirmed by the positive lines that collect the consecutive upper wicks mentioned last week.

 

As mentioned at the beginning, the market ranging continues.

 

On the other hand, compared to the horizontal axis of box A mentioned earlier, it may be good to see the possibility the horizontal axis adjustment is finished and a short-term trend is likely to appear (a big move) from around next week. Specifically, the horizontal axis adjustment part of A in the above figure is 63 days for 9 bars per week, and the current range duration is 56 days for 8 bars per week.

 

If this week’s candlestick is confirmed on the positive line as it is, it may rise at this point, but on the other hand, it is not easy to turn the monthly candlestick positive and the upper price still shows heavy resistance. If it rises, look out for price movements around the monthly opening price of $43,000.

 

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

Looking at the daily level, it is easier to understand, and it can be seen that the movement is within a range.

 

Although it is called a range, the width of the range has narrowed further, and price movements have been coiling down. ($38,000 ~ $42,000). In addition to the above-mentioned adjustment on the horizontal axis, this stalemate in price movement is also one of the factors we would like to consider the possibility of an increase in volatility (big price move).

 

However, since only God knows “how” and “when” it will exit this range, I would like to continue the basic approach of buying when the lower limit of the range is reached and selling when the upper limit of the range is reached.

 

Short term

Even in the short term, it is often linked to the US index. Again, there are a lot of volatile movements correlating with US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 22:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression is that it will get rejected at the resistance level (note the summer time (US Daylight savings) has been applied to the opening hours of the market starting this week).

 

Short-term price movements are becoming narrower in price range (decrease in volatility), and it is difficult to recover when a loss is made, so the difficulty level seems to be gradually increasing. It is a difficult market, so it is a good idea to wait until it you grasp a sense of direction making it easier to make a move.

 

 

Table of Contents

Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, short-term technical analysis)

 

Overview of BTC

This week as well, the stock indexes of gold, crude oil, and the United States fluctuated violently in a short period of time due to the ever-changing situation in Russia and Ukraine. Bitcoin was also moving along with them (inversely correlated with gold, correlated with stock indexes).

 

Although price action will continue to be a violent in the short term, I would like to stay calm knowing the movement is within a range ($30,000 ~ $40,000) described earlier at the weekly and daily levels.

 

Mid-term and long-term

↓ BTCUSD Monthly Candlestick Chart

Since we updated the monthly chart last week, let’s first recognize the environment at the monthly chart level.

 

Last month it was confirmed with a positive bar, but looking at the above figure, it seems likely that this month is a negative bar.

 

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

Last week, it was supported by the resistance zone of the horizon (white box near $33,000 in the figure), and was finally confirmed by the small upper wick positive line. I would like to pay a little attention to this continuous upper wick.

 

This week showed a temporary rise following the confirmation of candlesticks supported by last week’s resistance band (which can be linked to the gap filling of the US stock index, which showed similar movement as last Monday and pointed out in last week’s article). Even though price action was such, it was again rejected by the resistance band around $43,000. As mentioned above, ranging price action continues. Even if you are long from the bottom, it is better to humbly take profits.

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

Looking at the daily chart, it is easier to understand, and it can be seen the movement is within a range.

 

Although it is said to be in a range, the width of the range is narrowing, and we would like to consider the possibility that it is becoming a so-called narrowing wedge shape (devaluation of high prices and devaluation of low prices). Since only God knows “which” and “when” to exit, I would like to continue the basic approach of buying when the lower limit of the range (consolidation) is reached and selling when the upper limit of the range (consolidation) is reached.

 

Short term

The short term is often linked to the US index. Again, there are many violent movements correlating with US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 23:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high. However, the impression is it will get rejected at the resistance zone.

 

Short-term price movements are becoming narrower in price range (decrease in volatility), and it is difficult to recover when a loss is made, so the difficulty level seems to be gradually increasing. It is a difficult market, so I think it would be a good idea to wait until it becomes easy to handle (until the situation in Russia and Ukraine calms down).

 

Table of Contents

Overview of BTC (Mid-term, long-term, short-term technical analysis + practical example of this week’s trading ~ gap filling ~)

 

Overview of BTC

This week as well, the US stock index fluctuated violently in a short period of time due to the ever-changing situation in Russia and Ukraine. Bitcoin behaved in a similar manner, with a weekly candlestick with a wick likely to be confirmed by a resistance band around $43,000 (probably the positive line).

 

Although it will continue to display volatility in the short term, I would like stay calm as it is only movement within the range ($30,000 to $40,000) described earlier at the weekly and daily levels.

 

Mid-term and long-term

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

Last week showed support from the resistance zone (white box near $33,000 in the figure), confirmed by a small wick of a shadow line.

 

This week, following the confirmation of candlesticks supported by last week’s resistance band, it showed a temporary rise (which can be linked to the gap filling of the US stock index), but it peaked at the resistance band around $43,000. As mentioned earlier, a ranging price action continues.

 

↓ BTCUSD Daily Candlestick Chart

Looking at the daily chart, it is easier to understand the movement is within the range.

 

I would like to continue the basic approach of buying low of the range and selling the top of the range.

 

Short-term

The short term remains strongly correlated to the US index. Again, there are a lot of violent movements correlating with US100 (Nasdaq Composite Index), so be careful when trading. Especially at 23:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high.

The temporary rise at the beginning of the week was linked to the movement to fill the gap of the US stock index, discussed below.

Practical example of this week’s trading ~ Gap filling ~

First, the Nasdaq Composite Index (US100) started on Monday after the beginning of the week with a large open gap as shown in the figure below.

Here I have built a buy position in both the US100 and crypto, assuming “it will move to fill this window in the short term”, that is, “it will make a transient rise”. The loss cut was taken when the US100 moved below this short-term low ($13,700). By the way, gap filling is not always a 100% certainty and is more so a turnaround within a range with the assumption it is often filled (expected value is high).

After that, price movement was formed so as to fill the gap without falling below the opening price as shown below.

Of course, BTC also had similar price movement and showed a temporary rise.

 

Volatility may be high upsetting many traders, so I recommend you to think in simple terms and take a position accordingly.

Table of Contents
Overview of BTC (mid-term, long-term, & short-term technical analysis)

Overview of BTC
This week, the US stock index and other stock indices have generally reversed from last week’s continued sell-offs, and BTC and Altcoins are no exception, showing short-term rises.

Mid-term/Long-term

The price range recognized in the bandwidth (see last week’s article), will be confirmed once on the positive line after the rebound, and it is likely to be confirmed on the positive line with a lower wick this week as well.

In addition, the monthly chart has also turned positive, so even if it falls in the near-term future, we are thinking of building a short-term long position against the opening price of the monthly chart (it seems that buying will be made with the opening price of the monthly chart in mind).

There are two points that can be understood by looking at the daily chart.

1 The current price range is located in the daily resistance zone of the horizon.

Therefore, it is considered the price range in this area is easy to enter into the profitability of long positions from the bottom and the construction of new short positions, and it is likely a conflict (ranging market) will be formed even in this price range.

2 Keep in mind it may be necessary to intervene time adjustments (horizontal axis adjustments) to confirm a trend change.

It is quite possible the movement will be similar to zone A on the chart I covered in last week’s article, so you should consider that possibility as well. In my opinion, the reversal will take a little longer.

Short-Term
Continuing from last week, the correlation with US indices are often seen even in the short term. Again, there are a lot of volatile movements that correlate with US100 (NASDAQ Composite Index), so be careful when trading if you are not used to it. Especially at 23:30 when the US market opens, volatility tends to be high and sharp. However, it seems it may stop at the horizon or zone discussed.

I also felt this week there was relatively little correlation in the short term compared to last week. I want to trade keeping in mind the environment can change every time. Once the US index has a direction, it will trend in that direction for a while on that day in the short term. Positions that go against that trend should be avoided.

The diagonal trend line I had seen since last week was rejected once, but was able to break through it the second attempt. If there is movement to try and test this trend line again (so-called roll reversal), taking a long position may be an option.