Category: Overview

Contents
BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA, Altcoin Standing Tips)
US100 Overview

BTC Overview

The recent trend of the market’s movement continues to give the strong impression it has been enduring the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without much correlation, while there are a few signs of a stand-alone upturn. The market continues to be range-bound with limited upside potential.

The “altcoin market” has recently seen strong price action following the strong price action in BTC. In this week’s article, I will provide a few tips on how to navigate such a market.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is not possible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has temporarily ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no need to rush into buying positions over a long-time horizon. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

This week was the week between monthly updates, so we do our customary environmental awareness check.

Last month, after testing the recent low of $18,000, we turned positive and were able to confirm the monthly leg with a positive candle. This month, too, the current situation is positive. If the price continues to rise, the monthly price should reach $26,000, where the resistance area is located.

Also, thanks to this positive monthly confirmation, many altcoins are strong and showing a rise. It is the so-called “BTC rises, then altcoins lag behind,” which is the usual rule. One of the characteristics of such a market is “each individual altcoin rises in turn with a time lag.” In other words, it is called the altcoin “cycle.” Recently, for example, after $CHZ rose, other $CHZ-related fun tokens rose after a short time lag. Such “cycles” are often seen between altcoins of similar nature. This means if you observe a rise in one altcoin, you should pay attention to its related altcoins. It is like an “association game.”

As for our future policy, from a macro perspective as stated previously, our only basic policy is as we continued to do last month,

“BTC,

1. US stocks (US100 or US30) appear to be resisting the decline
2. The short-term price movement correlation between US100 and BTC is lessening
3. BTC and Gold tend to rise towards the end of the year

based on the three points, if the price drops, I will try to take a long position against the recent low of $18,000. If the price breaks down a little, I will try to buy the price dip. If the price drops to a lower low with a jiggle down plus a big drop, I will stop trying to take a long position.”

This is the policy I plan to stand on.

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

Since our general policy was confirmed in the monthly section, we will also check the lower weekly section. Then, if the price continues to rise, we should pay attention to the $22,400 area where the white resistance box just above exists and the $24,000 area of the weekly 200MA as candidates for the price range where the price is likely to stop increasing (guideline for profit-taking).

Two important points remain:

(1) stand on the assumption of a ranging market (perhaps a market with a shrinking range),

(2) take profits frequently.

US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100 has shown a range-bound move this week, without making a new low, but the weak price action is likely to test the lows again.

If it continues to fall, the next white support box will be around the $10,000 level, which is a good distance from the current price range, so it is likely to be a reasonably large decline. In that case, BTC is likely to show an accompanying decline, so we should stay alert and keep this in mind.

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is also unlikely to rebound, so as I always state, it is necessary to watch BTC as well. When taking a position in BTC, be sure to consider the movement of the index.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long-term and Short-term TA)

US100 Overview

BTC Overview

The recent trend of the market’s movement continues to give the strong impression the market has been enduring the declines in other markets, such as the US 100, without much correlation, while there are few signs of a stand-alone upturn. The market continues to be range-bound with limited upside potential.

This week, the market has broken out of the short-term range and the monthly leg has turned positive, but it remains in a ranged market category as to whether a trend is emerging or not. The basis of a range market is to buy at the lower end and sell at the upper end of the range. In other words, from last week to this week, do not force yourself to take short positions in order to break below the range. A horizontal time adjustment is needed to break out of the range.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has come to an end, funds have been pulled out of the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no rush to build a long-term buying position. This is a phase to protect funds, not an offensive phase. (repost)

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

BTC will show an uptick this week and the weekly leg is likely to be confirmed with a positive line. The monthly leg is also likely to be positive.

The current price range is at the upper end of the white box, which is the upper end of the range, so it looks like it will be a bit heavy and is a short-term profit taking point. The monthly leg for this month will close this week, but as mentioned below, I think it is a good policy to pick up the price when it falls again next month.

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart

In last week’s article, I wrote, “since the downside price appears to be solid, the key for next week and beyond will be whether or not the price can cross the $19,427 horizontal light blue line in the chart above. Whether or not the price crosses the $19,427 mark will determine whether this month will be a positive or negative one. This is exactly the point to watch this week. The above chart shows that the price has been rising vigorously after firmly crossing the $19,427 level. This is a noticeably clear case of “the opening price of the upper time frame, such as the monthly time frame, is well aware of itself,” so it is good to keep this in mind.

This week, I built a long altcoin position at the time this $19,427 was firmly exceeded in substance. (I was not only judging BTC on its own, but also watching the movement of the US100.)

This is a slightly more applied technique, where when BTC is about to rise, and as in this case, the support is somewhat far away and it is difficult to take a position in BTC on its own, you take a position in an altcoin that moves after BTC. This is another highly reproducible technique to keep in mind as it can be applied in the future.

From a macro perspective, we continue to believe, over the next month or so, the only basic policy will be, as we wrote before,

“BTC

1. Appears to be resisting the decline from US stocks (US100 or US30)
2. Is showing a lessor correlation in the short-term price with the US100
3. Tends to rise towards the end of the year, similar to gold

Based on these three points, we are thinking of taking a long position against the recent low of $18,000 in the event of a decline. If the price breaks down a little, I will try to buy the dip once. If the price drops below $18,000, I will stop trying to take a long position.

I would like to stand around with this policy.

US100 Overview

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100 showed a range-bound move this week without making a new low.

This year, I believe it will not break new lows and will continue to move around this price range ($10,400-$12,400) for a time next week and beyond, as shown on the left side of the chart.

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always state, it is necessary to watch it as well. When taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of this index as well.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA)

Overview of the US100

BTC Overview

This week was a strong week for the dollar, with markets generally trending lower against the dollar, and both the US100 and US30 and Gold were looking to make new lows and recent lows. Next week will be one to watch, as the price has come down to a price range which is likely to show a short-term rebound.

BTC has been falling in tandem with the decline in the US 100 this week, and the market has continued to move lower and higher. Of course, in the big picture, the market is ranging.

The difficulty in the current market is that it is impossible to make decisions based on BTC alone. It is important to make a comprehensive judgment by observing each factor in a complex manner.

Since monetary easing has come to an end, funds have been pulled out of the market, and the U.S. dollar is strong, there is no rush to build a long time horizon buying position. This is a phase to protect funds, not to be on the offense. (reiterated)

↓ Daily candlestick chart of BTCUSD

Continuing from last week, it is easy to see on a daily basis the market is in a range. Since the current price range is at the lower end of the range, it seems more promising to target long positions at such times as the weekly update, rather than taking short positions in an attempt to break through the lower end of the range.

↓ Daily candlestick chart of BTCUSD w/horizontal axis added

Also, although this is only a hypothetical double bottom at the bottom of these two points, I think it is running out unless the price shows signs of a reversal soon, even on the horizontal axis. In other words, if we fail to move up within the next week, the probability of a break below this low price area will increase. Next week will also be interspersed with monthly updates, so it may be worth looking at the possibility of an initial swing lower around that time, creating a lower wick, and then a positive turnaround.

Continuing from last week, again from a macro perspective, we can see the current price area is the high of 2017, and this area is once again a place where we can struggle, i.e., where selling and buying could be competing with each other.

Based on such at this point, it is important to assume the market is in a range. Specifically, buy at $18,000 and sell at or near $26,000.

In a ranging market, the basic rule is “buy low and sell above.” In this case, selling at $18,000 is not a good idea. Even if we break below this low in the future, it is necessary to create a horizontal axis in the form of a holding triangle. As I wrote above, I would like to keep the above policy for a while as long as the market does not break below this current range.

Overview of the US100

↓ Weekly candlestick chart of US100

The US100 fell again last week.

Last week I said, “judging by the chart alone, I think we are likely to attack lower prices to the recent lows around $11,000-$11,500.” The price fell to approximately this area and the candlestick closed.

The reason is that there are several horizontal boxes in that area and the 200MA is also present, so a rebound is highly likely. Therefore, we will be watching closely to see if a short-term rebound can be seen in this price area in the next week or so.

In any case, unless the US100 rebounds, BTC is unlikely to rebound either, so as I always write, it is necessary to watch BTC as well. In other words, when taking a position in BTC, you need to take into account the movement of the index as well.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA)
Overview of US100

BTC Overview

This week’s BTC is linked to the decline of the US100, showing a decline, and continuing to have a heavy topside. Of course, looking at the big picture, it is within the scope of the ranging market.

It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is BTC cannot be used solely to make any judgments. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.

Monetary easing has ended, funds have been withdrawn from the market, and the US dollar is strong. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the attack. (repost)

↓ BTCUSD daily candlestick chart

Looking at the daily chart, it is easy to understand we are in a ranging market. Since the current price range is at the lower end, rather than holding a short position aiming to break through the lower end of the range, it seems the expected value is higher for aiming for a long position at the timing of weekly updates.

If you want to open a short position to break out of the lower end of the range, you can build your position against the recent high of $22,500. In that case, we assume a shape like a descending triangle.

Last week I mentioned, “looking at it again from a macro perspective, the current price range is the highest price in 2017, and you can see again this area is a place where selling and buying can be evenly matched.”

Therefore, at this point, it is important to assume the market is range bound. Specifically, the idea is to buy at around $18,000 and sell at around $26,000 or less.

The basics of a ranging market are “buy low, sell high”, and in this example, selling at $18,000 is not a good idea. If the price breaks below this low in the future, it will need to form a consolidating triangle-like shape to create a horizontal axis.” I would like to continue with the above policy for the time being unless the price falls below the current range.

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

Looking at the monthly chart again, we can see the current price range is the opening price of the monthly chart, which is the point of price competition.

In last week’s article I stated, “as a future policy for this month, we should take a position based on the assumption this month will be positive, with the monthly opening price of about $20,000 as support.” Next week, based on this assumption, we would like to build a position while keeping an eye on the movements of the US100.

Overview of the US100

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100 fell again last week. Judging only from the chart, we are thinking the price may push the price down to the recent lows of $11,000 to $11,500.

This is because there are multiple horizontal support areas and the presence of the 200MA, so it is likely the price will rebound. In any case, as long as the US100 does not rebound, BTC is unlikely to rebound, so as I always write, it is necessary to look at this as well. In other words, when taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of the index as well.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long and Short Term TA)

Overview of the US100

BTC Overview

BTC showed a short-term gain this week, turning positive not only on the weekly candle but also for the monthly. I will describe the way of thinking about how to take a position in the future.

It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is that BTC cannot used solely to make any judgments. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.

Monetary easing is once over and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term buying position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the attack. (repost)

↓ BTCUSD weekly candlestick chart

This week, the initial move turned positive, and the weekly chart is likely to settle on a positive line.

Looking at it again from a macro perspective, the current price range is the highest price in 2017, and you can see this area is a place where selling and buying can be evenly matched.

Therefore, at this point, it is important to assume the market is range bound. Specifically, the image is to buy at around $18,000 and sell at around $26,000 or less.

The basics of a ranging market are “buy low, sell high”, and in this example, selling at $18,000 is not a good idea. If this low is broken down in the future, it will need to form a consolidating triangle-like shape to create a horizontal axis.

In last week’s article I stated, “we believe if we take a long position after this month, we will be able to back the recent low of around $18,000.” At present, we want to take a long position at $18,000 as our backing because of the possibility of support there.

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

In addition, the monthly candle turned positive. Therefore, as a future policy for this month, it would be better to take a position with the opening price of the monthly candlestick at around $20,000 under the assumption this month will be positive.

Overview of the US100

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100’s decline temporarily stopped, showing a short-term rebound. Judging only from the chart, it seems there will be a struggle in this price range.

It has recently seen a short-term rally at the white support box around $12,300, but if it continues to fall, I think we can be prepared for another drop to around $11,000. This is because there are multiple horizontal support boxes and the presence of the 200MA, so it is likely the price will bounce back. In any case, as I always mention, it is difficult for BTC to rebound unless the US100 rebounds, so we need to look at this as well. When taking a position in BTC, we need to consider the movement of this index as well.

Contents

BTC Overview (Long- and Short-Term TA)

Overview of US100

BTC Overview

This week’s article confirms the market environment and reviews August.

It is necessary to continue to monitor the movements of BTC, ETH, and the US100 and respond flexibly to the market environment. It can be said the difficulty of the current market is BTC cannot be used solely to make any judgments. It is important to comprehensively observe each element and make a comprehensive judgment.

Monetary easing is once over and funds are being withdrawn from the market, so there is no need to rush to build a long-term buying position. Now is the phase to protect funds, not the phase to be on the attack. (repost)

↓ BTCUSD monthly candlestick chart

This week August ends and September begins, so I will start with the usual environmental awareness. The monthly candlestick of August became a negative line wrapped up by the positive line of the previous month, July, in the form of candlesticks. Once again, I realized the overall situation is a downward trend, and on a slightly shorter time axis, the market is in a range.

We believe if we take a long position after this month, we will be able to back the recent low near $18,000. If the price makes a new low, the next white support box near $14,000 will come into view.

↓ BTCUSD 8-hour candlestick chart

Let’s take a little look back. I tried to surround the August period of BTC’s lower candle 8-hour candle. There are two important points here.

The first is the short-term movement in August was a state of declining volatility, the so-called ‘summer market,’ which can be clearly seen in comparison with the period before that. That’s what it means. It will be clear even if you compare it with July to the left of it. What you have to be careful about in such a market environment is you should limit the places and times you touch and reduce the number of times you touch. This is because if volatility is reduced this much, it will be difficult to recover immediately if a loss is made. Limiting the place and time to touch specifically refers to trading only at the timing of weekly updates. I also went about my trading with such policy.

Second, don’t go against the upper leg. In other words, after the price of BTC falls below the monthly opening price of $23,307 and becomes a negative candle, the price range when taking a long position is quite small, coupled with the reduction in volatility, so you should refrain from taking a long position. I touched on this many times in the articles in August, but this time I would like you to verify it against the actual chart again. In this situation, except for short-term scalping, you should be able to see it is quite difficult to trade only with long positions.

Of course, it is now September, and looking at the weekly level, there is a possibility the price range is at the lower end of the range, so my current thinking is that I would like to take a long position around $18,000. The point at which the decline in the US100, which is described later, will be supported is also key.

↓ US100 daily candlestick chart

The US100 is in the middle of a decline as shown above. After seeing a short-term rally from the white support box around $12,300, I think we should be prepared for another drop down to around $11,000. This is because there are multiple horizontal support boxes and the presence of the 200MA, so it is likely the price will rebound. In any case, as long as the US100 does not rebound, BTC is unlikely to rebound, so as I always write, it is necessary to look at this as well.